melindav
☰ 2018
I didn't take issue with your 21k estimate of current owner reservations, but that the calculator was placing all 21k of those before all non-owner reservations.@melindav, it already works like this. The 21,053 numbers is for the entire USA. The global number is 36,449 Tesla owners on 1 Sep 2017 when Model 3 production starts. You might say, shouldn't it be just 7%? Isn't 36,449 a little too high? No, because 7% is the percentage of reservation holders who have a Tesla. Tesla mentioned the 7% on 4 May 2016 earnings call. At that time global reservations were 359,445 units. 7% of that is 25,161 people.
On 4 May 2016, Tesla's global fleet was 129,980 units. In other words, out of 129,980 Tesla owners, 25,161 had placed a Model 3 reservation. That's 19.4%. On 1 Sep 2017, when Model 3 production starts, Tesla's global fleet will be 271,077 units and I calculated that 36,449 of those will be Model 3 reservation holders.
"In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region..... When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east." - Tesla blog from March
I took this to mean that a region is "west coast", not the entire United States, so a non owner reservation in Northern California would be invited to configure before an owner in Chicago.