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@Topher. Thanks, for letting me know that I should add you to my ignore list. The person who said "7% of the reservation holders are Tesla owners" was Jonathan McNeill, President of Global Sales & Service at Tesla. The data is clear to me. I don't have any issue using it and I'm not interested at all in your arguments. Good luck.
igotzzoom
Active Member
I'm realistically hoping to get mine between May-August 2018. I reserved about 15-30 minutes after the online reveal. I live in CA.
ummgood
Member
When I said that I forgot about the orders from employees etc...
With that excluded I used the fact that I was ~100 in line in Austin. THere are roughly ~100 tesla stores in the US which 100x100 = 10k. I am probably earlier than that because I got my reservation in the first 2 hours in the US. Assuming that the reservation number hint that was removed by Tesla it correlates to my number being about 10k higher than the very first number on the east coast. That doesn't remove any numbers made in Europe or overseas during the 2 hours between when the first reservation was placed in the US.
If you assume that the employee reservations were about 6 or 7k (I am guessing based on the reservation hint thing again) then I should at least be in the first 17k in the US or so. It doesn't mean I am getting one of the first 17k cars but I should be in the first 17k reservations even with the employees added on in the US.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I'm just letting you know that when the East Coast stores opened at 10am ET that day, I was ~75th in line in Natick, MA. And I got through around 10:30.
Extrapolate that out by number of stores....I think we can both safely assume we're in the top 25K, but beyond that, not sure it matters a lot until they use their system to determine who will be getting their cars at any given time.
Being in TX, you'll likely get yours before mine (unless you're getting a base model).
ummgood
Member
Thanks! Under 25k is a safe assumption...
I am nerdy so I am figuring out the numbers for my own OCD tendancies. Of course this is all rough numbers. Based on people waiting in line here is what I am figuring out.
Based on time zone here are the store counts (I counted them on the map based on time zone and might have miss counted but this should be close enough...)
East - 42 stores (46 if counting Canada)
Central - 14 stores (no additional in Canada)
Mountain - 4 stores (5 if counting Canada)
Pacific - 32 stores (34 if counting Canada)
So now lets assume they were processing about 125/hour on average. In your experience they went through about 75 in 30 minutes which is about 150/hour. In Austin they were slower and it took them about 75 minutes to get to me and I was number 106 in line. So average out to 125/hour (this number could greatly vary).
So if you are in the Eastern time you can assume that there are 42 US stores processing 125 per/hour. So that means the East coast was processing about 5250 reservations/hour. So if you placed your order at 10:30 then you would be about reservation ~2600. (Also I think a couple stores opened early but hopefully that is accounted in the average). So let's say at the most there are 10k employee orders you are <15k.
Now at 11am Eastern the Central stores started clocking in at the rate of an additional 1750/hour so 7k/hour. Then at 12pm eastern an additional 500/hour start for the Mountain stores. My reservation was at 12:15 eastern so that means that 5250 + (7k + 1/4*7.5k) = 14k. So with the 10k employee orders I am at ~24k in line. At least I have a better estimate now. Of course this assumes that the lines weren't processed all by the time Pacific orders were in full swing. I know in Austin based on the amount of time they probably wouldn't have gotten through their line until 1 or 2 in the afternoon.
Now if someone put in their reservation at 11a.m. Pacific it would work out to (5250 + 7000 + 7500 + 11500) = 31250.
The amazing thing is if all the stores were taking reservations at about 125/hour in the US that means there were 31250/hour until the stores start running out of people in line.
FloridaJohn
Member
Interesting tool. It looks like you've put a lot of work into it, and it is probably about as good an estimate as possible with the info we have available at the moment.
I do have a question about how you calculate "your place in queue" number. It appears that you are taking my estimated "reservation number" and then adding it to the Tesla employees, delay based on region, and current Tesla owners. But don't some of those people already have reservation numbers ahead of me? For example, my "country specific reservation number" from you spreadsheet is around 121,000 (which sounds reasonable to me, btw). But that number already includes the Tesla employees. So adding an additional 10,000 to my spot in line would double count them. I would also assume some amount of the "delay number" and "Tesla owners" number are already included in my 121,000 reservation number.
I'm not sure how you would estimate what percentage of those numbers are already ahead of me in line, but I think the way you are doing it right now is adding an unrealistic delay to the delivery time.
But this is just a nitpick, because otherwise you have done a really good job with this.
I do have a question about how you calculate "your place in queue" number. It appears that you are taking my estimated "reservation number" and then adding it to the Tesla employees, delay based on region, and current Tesla owners. But don't some of those people already have reservation numbers ahead of me? For example, my "country specific reservation number" from you spreadsheet is around 121,000 (which sounds reasonable to me, btw). But that number already includes the Tesla employees. So adding an additional 10,000 to my spot in line would double count them. I would also assume some amount of the "delay number" and "Tesla owners" number are already included in my 121,000 reservation number.
I'm not sure how you would estimate what percentage of those numbers are already ahead of me in line, but I think the way you are doing it right now is adding an unrealistic delay to the delivery time.
But this is just a nitpick, because otherwise you have done a really good job with this.
Good question. If your reservation number included Tesla employees, you would be right because the tool would have counted the employees twice. In fact, it used to work like that until I saw this error a few days ago. If you open Data1 tab and look at column AE, you can see that I subtracted 10,000 from all known reservation counts (all the numbers Elon tweeted). However, before I subtracted 10K, I subtracted something else.
On 18 May 2016, when Tesla announced the 373,000 number, they said this was after 8000 cancellations and 4000 duplicates were removed (source). Before those were removed, the number would have been 373+8+4= 385,000. This is the number comparable to previously announced reservation counts. For example, on stage Elon said 115,000.
First I removed duplicates and cancellations from all tweeted numbers proportionately to the 373/385 ratio. 115,000 becomes 115*373/385= 111,416 after the cleanup. Then I removed the 10K employees: 111,416 - 10,000 = 101,416. This is the number you will see in Data1 column AE.
On top of that, of course, there will be cancellations between 18 May 2016 (when the 373K number was announced) and when production starts (1 Sep 2017). I estimated these at 9%. Your place in the country queue is multiplied by 0.91 to calculate a production sequence number. This is not displayed but it is used in calculations.
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Your car might be built and waiting for delivery for months. I'm expecting cars to go out in waves.
All pre unveiled orders will be fulfilled first. Current owners first. If you're an owner after May 22nd that doesn't bump you up the line anymore. They had a cut off because of the large number of orders. I expect batches of 10k to be delivered to each region by time stamp. It might be 5k or 20k, but I'm guessing 10k batches. Say they make 50k in 3 months-that's 12.5k batches to 4 regions. No one knows though. It's all guesses unless he has tweeted about deliveries but he hasn't mentioned about batches yet. He did say west to east, but how he does that might differ than most people think. I'm sitting on an IQ of 171. It doesn't make sense to ditch all east coast people until all west coast orders are filled (pre and post). That's just really dumb. I'd expect all employees first-no biggie-don't care followed by West coast owners, then north owners, then south owners, and finally east owners. So all preunveiled ordered owners are filled after employees. Now back to west coast preunveil orders non owners. I'd expect about 25k to be delivered in that area first. Just makes sense. If there is a major issue then pause deliveries, fix, then hit more west coasters-if all goes well, then onto the other regions for all preunveiled orders. All pre unveiled orders will be filled first before post unveil. Elon has tweeted this. Now in quantity of what??? I have no idea. Also it has been tweeted that your options do not matter or push your car up in the queue. It is a totally false assumption if you order a loaded L model right now that you'll get your car before someone who ordered pre unveil at 1pm. That is just pure delusion. Anyways, most of this will be covered in detail unveil 2 and a lot of people will probably be surprised as to how this car logistics will be handled. Until then-stay excited model 3 fans. More great info is coming. Scully.
All pre unveiled orders will be fulfilled first. Current owners first. If you're an owner after May 22nd that doesn't bump you up the line anymore. They had a cut off because of the large number of orders. I expect batches of 10k to be delivered to each region by time stamp. It might be 5k or 20k, but I'm guessing 10k batches. Say they make 50k in 3 months-that's 12.5k batches to 4 regions. No one knows though. It's all guesses unless he has tweeted about deliveries but he hasn't mentioned about batches yet. He did say west to east, but how he does that might differ than most people think. I'm sitting on an IQ of 171. It doesn't make sense to ditch all east coast people until all west coast orders are filled (pre and post). That's just really dumb. I'd expect all employees first-no biggie-don't care followed by West coast owners, then north owners, then south owners, and finally east owners. So all preunveiled ordered owners are filled after employees. Now back to west coast preunveil orders non owners. I'd expect about 25k to be delivered in that area first. Just makes sense. If there is a major issue then pause deliveries, fix, then hit more west coasters-if all goes well, then onto the other regions for all preunveiled orders. All pre unveiled orders will be filled first before post unveil. Elon has tweeted this. Now in quantity of what??? I have no idea. Also it has been tweeted that your options do not matter or push your car up in the queue. It is a totally false assumption if you order a loaded L model right now that you'll get your car before someone who ordered pre unveil at 1pm. That is just pure delusion. Anyways, most of this will be covered in detail unveil 2 and a lot of people will probably be surprised as to how this car logistics will be handled. Until then-stay excited model 3 fans. More great info is coming. Scully.
@tsla007,
I don't like arguing with people who can't admit when they are wrong. So I'm adding you to my ignore list as well. Good luck.
Click HERE to listen to the conference call.
Question: Great. Thanks for taking the question. On the Model 3, if I may, just I think a lot of folks are trying to do work as it relates on the margin trajectory over time. And it's clearly going to be volume dependent and sort of timing around the launch, but I was wondering if you could help us understand, just given that it's a third of the transaction price of roughly your initial Model X deliveries, what are some of the efficiencies you're hoping that you can sort of draw upon, maybe beyond just sort of the battery reduction, battery cost reductions? What are you leveraging in the Model 3 from investments you've already made, and sort of the knowledge you have around sort of initial launch costs on the higher priced vehicles at this point?
Elon Musk: Yeah, I think the way to think of the customers is really that the Model 3, being a sedan, is about 20% lighter than – and actually quite a bit less complex to manufacturer, than the Model S. Model S was really the first car we ever made ourselves. So, it was – we were designing to make it work, as opposed to designing it from ease of manufacturing, whereas the Model 3 is really designed for ease of manufacturing.
And then we expect through economies of scale and just general design improvements to get another 30% improvement. So that's where the 50% improvement comes relative to the Model S. So, it's a sort of 35K versus 70K of Model 3 versus Model S is the way to think about the difference. And our default plan as we've done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything, so that sort of makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. So, that's what we did with the Model S and also again with the Model X.
I don't like arguing with people who can't admit when they are wrong. So I'm adding you to my ignore list as well. Good luck.
Click HERE to listen to the conference call.
Question: Great. Thanks for taking the question. On the Model 3, if I may, just I think a lot of folks are trying to do work as it relates on the margin trajectory over time. And it's clearly going to be volume dependent and sort of timing around the launch, but I was wondering if you could help us understand, just given that it's a third of the transaction price of roughly your initial Model X deliveries, what are some of the efficiencies you're hoping that you can sort of draw upon, maybe beyond just sort of the battery reduction, battery cost reductions? What are you leveraging in the Model 3 from investments you've already made, and sort of the knowledge you have around sort of initial launch costs on the higher priced vehicles at this point?
Elon Musk: Yeah, I think the way to think of the customers is really that the Model 3, being a sedan, is about 20% lighter than – and actually quite a bit less complex to manufacturer, than the Model S. Model S was really the first car we ever made ourselves. So, it was – we were designing to make it work, as opposed to designing it from ease of manufacturing, whereas the Model 3 is really designed for ease of manufacturing.
And then we expect through economies of scale and just general design improvements to get another 30% improvement. So that's where the 50% improvement comes relative to the Model S. So, it's a sort of 35K versus 70K of Model 3 versus Model S is the way to think about the difference. And our default plan as we've done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything, so that sort of makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. So, that's what we did with the Model S and also again with the Model X.
FloridaJohn
Member
Ok. Thanks for that explanation. I knew it was in there somewhere, but I got lazy trying to find it since I knew you would know the answer off the top of your head.
My other question was related to how many of the numbers of people ahead of me in line (not including Tesla employees) were already in front of me anyway because they signed up before I did.
For example, I signed up on April 1 and I live on the east coast. Many people signed up ahead of me on March 31. Some of those people are on the west coast, so they will be prioritized ahead of me and they are in front of me in line. So those people would not delay my spot in line at all.
The same goes for current Tesla owners. Some of them signed up on Mar 31 (ahead of me) and they already live on the west coast (so ahead of me again).
I'm not sure how you would account for these people because they would be a percentage of the number in front of me in line. Of course, even in my region, there would be people who are current Tesla owners and want to buy a higher optioned vehicle than me. So those people would bump me back in line. But not everyone would, because some of the people in front of me in line will already have their vehicles by the time my number comes up.
I hope that's clear.
@FloridaJohn,
I agree it needs a little more work. When trying to decide how regional delays in the USA would work, I thought about waiting until deliveries in previous regions were complete. For example, Mountain states are after Pacific states. Therefore one option is to start deliveries here after Pacific states are done. But then I decided not to do that because Pacific delivery centers would be too overwhelmed for a few months while the rest of the USA would be mostly waiting idle, except the regular Model S and X deliveries.
As of 1 July 2016, Tesla delivered 136,652 cars worldwide. 34,032 of those were in California according to cncda.org. That's 24.9%. On 1st Sep 2017, if Tesla has, let's say, 365,000 cars to deliver, that would mean 90,885 deliveries in California alone. It would take 161 days, from 1st Sep 2016 to 8 Feb 2017 to finish California. That's 564 deliveries per day in California. I just don't see this happening.
So instead of waiting, I started each region at fixed time intervals of 20 days after the previous region. But displaying this as 20 days would make the presentation more complicated so I calculated the corresponding production numbers and displayed those. That's why it shows 32,926 for Eastern states instead 60 days delay.
I agree it needs a little more work. When trying to decide how regional delays in the USA would work, I thought about waiting until deliveries in previous regions were complete. For example, Mountain states are after Pacific states. Therefore one option is to start deliveries here after Pacific states are done. But then I decided not to do that because Pacific delivery centers would be too overwhelmed for a few months while the rest of the USA would be mostly waiting idle, except the regular Model S and X deliveries.
As of 1 July 2016, Tesla delivered 136,652 cars worldwide. 34,032 of those were in California according to cncda.org. That's 24.9%. On 1st Sep 2017, if Tesla has, let's say, 365,000 cars to deliver, that would mean 90,885 deliveries in California alone. It would take 161 days, from 1st Sep 2016 to 8 Feb 2017 to finish California. That's 564 deliveries per day in California. I just don't see this happening.
So instead of waiting, I started each region at fixed time intervals of 20 days after the previous region. But displaying this as 20 days would make the presentation more complicated so I calculated the corresponding production numbers and displayed those. That's why it shows 32,926 for Eastern states instead 60 days delay.
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Well, too bad. Troy will be one that will be surprised. The tweet that corrected this came after this conference call. Duh?!
Do you have a link for this quote? I've heard others mention that it was said as well but I've looked and cannont find a reference to an actual tweet, blog post, or interview where it is said. It might be more wishful thinking on my part since I won't max out my options but it does seem to make more sense to me for them not to only ship out the highly optioned cars first.
@tsla007,
Mentioning twitter was a good idea. You should have mentioned that before to support your argument instead just saying totally wrong. Anyway, I found some tweets that support your argument. The most interesting one is this exchange:
It is unclear to which of Eric's tweets Elon responds to. Some sources show Eric's first tweet. Others show his second tweet. Here is one source. Here is another. Of course, we already knew that owner priorities are limited to regional queues. Therefore I don't see any correction or change of message between the conference call and the twitter session but I understand why it might have appeared like that.
In case anybody is interested, there is a long topic HERE about all his tweets during the Ask-Me-Anything twitter session.
Mentioning twitter was a good idea. You should have mentioned that before to support your argument instead just saying totally wrong. Anyway, I found some tweets that support your argument. The most interesting one is this exchange:
It is unclear to which of Eric's tweets Elon responds to. Some sources show Eric's first tweet. Others show his second tweet. Here is one source. Here is another. Of course, we already knew that owner priorities are limited to regional queues. Therefore I don't see any correction or change of message between the conference call and the twitter session but I understand why it might have appeared like that.
In case anybody is interested, there is a long topic HERE about all his tweets during the Ask-Me-Anything twitter session.
@ummgood,
I was able to make use of the hidden reservation numbers after all. I used the list HERE by @zenmaster. The assumption is, the count starts at 350K and after the employee reservations, it was over 360K. Now, I'm using these numbers:
31 Mar 2016 08:00 10,323
31 Mar 2016 10:00 10,839
31 Mar 2016 12:30 32,000
31 Mar 2016 15:30 44,000
31 Mar 2016 19:30 62,000
31 Mar 2016 20:57 115,000
I was able to make use of the hidden reservation numbers after all. I used the list HERE by @zenmaster. The assumption is, the count starts at 350K and after the employee reservations, it was over 360K. Now, I'm using these numbers:
31 Mar 2016 08:00 10,323
31 Mar 2016 10:00 10,839
31 Mar 2016 12:30 32,000
31 Mar 2016 15:30 44,000
31 Mar 2016 19:30 62,000
31 Mar 2016 20:57 115,000
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