If, and that's a HUGE "if", the Model 3 appears at the Geneva Auto Show, that would mean that the Hawthorne reveal would likely come the night of Thursday, March 3rd. But I really can't imaging the first auto show the Model 3 shows up at would be in Switzerland. Sorry, I just don't see that being the case, though they might surprise me.
If I remember correctly, Tesla has a history of doing Thursday night launch events. That does narrow it down to one of 5 days. I would imagine that they already know 95% what the 3 will ultimately look like, and they already have a pretty good idea what the various amenities will be. Since the reveal is just something to tide over the waiting public, close will be good enough. With that in mind, I don't think March 3 or March 31st will make a difference to them since it's all just for show at that point anyway.
It'll probably just come down to how Elon's schedule looks in March, nothing more.
As for having "Official" in the thread title, I had a bit of a problem with that, too. It's far from official -- even if we did know when the reveal would be. Which we don't. Plus the statement that the 3 would be in the Geneva auto show, which it probably won't.
So let's break it down:
Official ..........................................................No, it's far from it.
Countdown to the Model 3 Debut ........................You can't count down to a date that's not disclosed.
at the Geneva Auto Show ..................................Probably won't even be there.
Alright, alright, alright. I'd change the title, but I don't think I can. I do appreciate your hypotheses though. I do think we'll know something significant in March, so the countdown continues official or not.