June 20th Speculation

[TD1]

I found out some details; if anyone was there with more info, please feel free to chirp in.

1. Swapping will be started in the CA corridor by the end of the year and then out to the East Coast after that
2. Charge will be based on 15 gallons of gas at the prevailing price and will be charged to your credit card (on file)
3. You will need to pick up your battery on the return trip OR have it shipped back to you (for a price) OR pay the difference in the battery life (cost yet to be determined)

last two points are pretty bad actually.
When Elon said "the equivalent of a Full gastank" I assumed he meant it based on the official 89MPGe of the Model S which would lead to about 3Gallons per swap given the 260Miles rated range.
Really dont link the 3. point seems to me like huge pain in the ***
I cant Imagine that "shipped back to you" would be economical feasable in any way.

I think it would be much better if every Battery would have a rating system for the state of the battery and every Model S VIN a rating of how good the battery should be.
So if someone drives a Tesla for 3years and has 30k Miles on it, that would lead to a certain battery degradation and the current "virtual" battery in a 85kw pack would have e.g. 235miles rated range left (10% degradation)
Now it would be much simpler to just limit the swapped pack via software to an equal range.

In a swapping station with around 50 Batteries there would be always some battery that comes very close to the "virtual battery" of a random Model S that pulls up for a new swap.

That way Tesla could also allow the Users to upgrade the virtual battery very conveniently and this system would leave little room for exploits.

Also Tesla could offer a "long range charter" where a 60kw Model S can upgrade (via software) temporary to a 85kw or 120kw battery for a few days for an extra fee. (although that business model would reduce the demand for big battery packs)

 

[JRP3]

I don't think it's that bad to occasionally pay for a fast swap, faster than gassing up a car, at the same rate as a gas car. Since 99% of the time, or more, you'll be "fueling" at a much lower rate are you really going to have a problem paying for the swap convenience? Don't want to pay? Supercharge for free.

 

[DonPedro]

I think this announcement should be viewed from the perspective of Tesla is aiming to eventually be the dominant car company in the industry. When (if) they get there, it will be partially because they bet on all four of the range-related technologies:

1. Superchargers
2. Battery swapping
3. Increased battery range
4. Public charging infrastructure compatibility
[5. Insert new idea]

The point is that it doesn't matter to Tesla in the long run which one of those (or combination thereof) succeeds as the long term viable solution. Some of those may succeed short term, but not long term. Others may mature very slowly. It is probable that Tesla will be writing off a few hundred million on one or the other. But that's just peanuts, compared to the vision for the company.

I think this is what Elon means when he says "optionality" (only he sees it from the customer point of view - the customers will assess the offerings and determine what will live and what dies).

 

[toastypasta]

You're only swapping on long trips. No reason to ever swap otherwise. So they believe you'll be making a return trip.. Which isn't necessarily true. Considering 1 is free and the other costs money, people will mostly choose free i think

 

[maekuz]

I'm going to speculate that there's a big public event and Elon comes out in a cheesy jacket and they show how they can swap a couple batteries in a Model S in the same time it takes to fill a similar ICE with a tank of gas. It might have actual value but perhaps not. At the very least it garners pretty awesome media pub and brings more attention to the Tesla brand.

You nailed it! Even the part with the jacket...

/scnr

 

[deonb]

When Elon said "the equivalent of a Full gastank" I assumed he meant it based on the official 89MPGe of the Model S which would lead to about 3Gallons per swap given the 260Miles rated range.

I expected it to be equivalent of the number on the Model S calculator. i.e. 20mpg.

It sort'a is (it's 20mpg 'ideal range' of a 'range change').

If you compare it with 'EPA range' on a 'standard charge' it's 16mpg.

If they actually give you a range charged battery it's not bad.

And the picture at:
http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap

looks like it might indicate range charged, but I wouldn't bet any money on it - this page is meant to drive new people to the site who won't know what a range charge entails.