HW2.5 capabilities

[BigD0g]

I think everyone is also missing a very simple point. Waymo has software solutions out in the wild right now. There is a family in Phoenix having their kids dropped off at school by an automous vehicle (even with a safety driver present). Someone please show me the Tesla prototype doing anything???

Everyone says the highway part is easy, it's the urban / city environments that are the PITA. Tesla's been at the highways for almost a year now with 2.0 / 2.5 and they still don't have it down yet. So, we are in for a long bumpy road folks.

Also, everyone given all this credit to Tesla for AP1 where in actuality it was "largely" a MobileEye solution and processing, which is why Tesla is still chasing AP1, because they didn't solve this problem for AP1, MobileEye did the heavy lifting, Tesla simply cleaned it up and rolled it out.

 

[BigD0g]

Elon has also stated several times HW2 will be level 5. Take Elon's comments and flush them.

 

[alcibiades]

I'd strongly urge your local SC to look into why your AP2 is garbage. It might not be hardware related but its good to have that eliminated as a potential issue.

It's a waste of time. They'll take your car for a 20 mile drive and then determine that:

The beauty of this response, of course, is that the complaint is about the routine behavior being poor, i.e. not that there were alerts. That my car drives towards barriers and over lane lines is "operating as designed."

I'm going to guess the tech wrote that, because a lawyer is going to be pissed.

Bye again.

 

[buttershrimp]

Looks like Google will start its ride hailing self driving service without human drivers this month (per theinformation). Despite the fact many on here like @stopcrazypp and @JeffK think that Tesla is ahead by a factor of 2-3 years.

Shows you that the tesla narratives never meshes with real life.

You are right Tesla is ahead by at least 4-5 years

 

[Bladerskb]

This is all predicated on Tesla not being able to release level 4 or level 5 software on HW2 or HW2.5. If they do, then they will still be the first manufacturer to release a level 4 or level 5 production car. If they don't, then what you say applies. It's that simple.

Lol you're joking right?

So if Tesla releases Level 3/4/5 software complete update in say 20 years. They will be the first SDC car? What kind of warp logic is that?

In that case, audi isnt the first L3 and first sdc car and all the hundreds of news articles l, industry leaders, companies, were wrong in referring to it as that.

Since some guy strapped some cameras and a gpu in a car and called their car l5 capable.

You proved my point yet again as i quoted.

"One of the most amazing things about Tesla is how Tesla fans manage to hold thoughts which are so patently false, against all types of evidence."

I respect @JeffK because instead of coming up with some warped excuse. He is looking forward to actual statistics that can show Tesla progress not some fable marri land idea that tesla is ahead.

Side point: cars used and owned by fleets (with tacked on sensors) are kind of a third category when talking in context to the original conversation. They aren't cars that a general consumer can just buy.

Theres no difference. Like i have said there will be companies like GM and Google who will have thousands of cars hailing Thousands of REAL customers around dozens of cities in 2018/2019. Starting with google in phoenix in 2017 and SF and other cities by GM in 2018

Its up to people like you if you want to live in the land of myth or acknowledge reality.

 

[Vic4Model3]

I plan on paying upfront for the fsd feature on my M3. Hopefully, fsd won't be involved in a Class Action Lawsuit in the not to distant future.

 

[lunitiks]

"Tesla screwed up!"
"It's just a software issue!"
"SCAM!"
"Tesla never promised any timeline!"
"They're asking for a lawsuit!'
"There's no regulatory approval so it doesn't even matter!"

This discussion has become a never ending story and has been rolling for so long and with basically the same arguments thrown back and forth that my mindset has gone from "passionate" to "tired" to now "i really actually don't care anymore".

What a quagmire

 

[BigD0g]

"Tesla screwed up!"
"It's just a software issue!"
"SCAM!"
"Tesla never promised any timeline!"
"They're asking for a lawsuit!'
"There's no regulatory approval so it doesn't even matter!"

This discussion has become a never ending story and has been rolling for so long and with basically the same arguments thrown back and forth that my mindset has gone from "passionate" to "tired" to now "i really actually don't care anymore".

What a quagmire

Nothing we can do, but sit, wait and get root on our cars...

 

[croman]

"Tesla screwed up!"
"It's just a software issue!"
"SCAM!"
"Tesla never promised any timeline!"
"They're asking for a lawsuit!'
"There's no regulatory approval so it doesn't even matter!"

This discussion has become a never ending story and has been rolling for so long and with basically the same arguments thrown back and forth that my mindset has gone from "passionate" to "tired" to now "i really actually don't care anymore".

What a quagmire

All of the above? I don't see those as competing arguments but I do agree it has been wearying but I do think verygreen pointed to some juicy potential wide angle camera action happening. That could either be yet another disappointment or else Karpathy's anal NN (lol) might be put to work soon.

 

[DKPowers]

This is a great post because people actually think that in 3 months All Tesla will be Level 5 and others think by June 2018 they will all be level 5. Its the most delusional thing i have ever heard. Almost as good as the people who thought that 150,000 model 3 will be made in 2017 cause elon said so (while i warned them that Tesla would be lucky to even make 10k model 3s and was laughed at) and that the model 3 will self drive to their house after the AP2 announcement...

Do you want an award or something?

 

[calisnow]

Very interesting, I didn't know who George Hotz was, but I remember reading about this interaction he had with Elon.

After watching the video, it is a very good example of how a brilliant person's immaturity and narcissism can end up sabotaging himself and greatly limiting his options and voice.

Perhaps Elon's best trait is being likable in addition to being really smart. Hotz's personality is so awful in this clip (I'm thinking a far worse version of the Zuckerberg in the Social Network), that it distracts from his otherwise fantastic work.

A good example of how being really smart doesn't protect a person from one's own douchey narcissism. Can you imagine how many willing folks would've given this guy the reigns and the money if he didn't make people want to vomit?

Instead he's basically someone's uncle at thanksgiving who insists on wearing his Mensa t-shirt and kicking everyone's ass at chess, meanwhile he's on unemployment and spends his time convincing your 13 year old cousin that he wasn't fired, but he did have to leave his last 4 jobs because his bosses were massive idiots.... "pass the gravy Jared, because you just got check mated for the 5th time today"

Devastating. Jesus. Ouch. But true.

 

[Bladerskb]

(Curious: if a remote operator has to step in and help make a decision for a car, is this reported as a "disconnection"?)

Good question... a thought:

Perhaps it would not be a disconnection if the car simply drives to a safe place if its operational parameters are no longer met (i.e. it notices it has entered a blizzard and its sensors are getting clogged up).

If it simply freaks out and calls it quits, that I guess would be a disconnection... and that is something no Level 5 is allowed to do, really, though of course some catastrophic systems failure is always possible just like with humans...

Just pondering.

It would probably be more like to approve the decision of a self driving car that requests for feedback when caught in a perilous situation like in a human controlled construction zone.

Its more like what nissan talked about doing. The person at the datacenter would then approve or deny and plot a path for the car to take.

Direct control would be impossible due to latency issues. A control center would be meant to handle situation of "it's OK to drive through a red light on the wrong side of the road."

As Nissan puts it "they can help out when the car encounters conditions it's unsure how to handle. If a Nissan happened upon the construction scene from Sierhuis' photo, it would stop and ping its control center. A human operator would look around using the car's cameras and other sensors and issue new instructions---direct control would pose latency issues. Like: When it's safe, cross the double yellow and get back to the right side after 20 yards. Or a new instruction set could ensure packages and disabled passengers get dropped off in exactly the right spot, and help assess potentially dangerous situations on the road."

 

[JeffK]

I respect @JeffK because instead of coming up with some warped excuse. He is looking forward to actual statistics that can show Tesla progress not some fable marri land idea that tesla is ahead.

I keep tweeting to Elon, Andrej and previously Sterling Anderson before he left. I'd love if they gave us some measure of progress. With other companies we are seeing either data, more demos, researchers are giving interviews showing real data, etc. Right now all we have from Tesla is a set of two sped up videos from last year, which were trained using hundreds of disengagements reported to the DMV in likely the same path. In one of the videos we even see the car stop after making a turn, for no reason, which could have been pretty dangerous as it could have been rear ended.

I love Elon, and I'm a big Tesla fan. I just wish they were a little more forthcoming with where they are, what the challenges are, etc. I don't need to necessarily hear from someone who is optimistic. I just want the brutal truth as to where we are with the state of the technology. The same applies to everyone else working on this too, not just Tesla.

Elon posted a video of some awesome SpaceX rocket landing failures. Granted, SpaceX isn't a publically traded company, still, I like that they owned up those failures and those failures served as a learning experience. Show me some FSD fails. Show me progress.

Nissan has had a self driving car in the works for the last four or five years now and they often show it off. Over the years I've seen videos when it was downright scary and how their tech has improved over time.

 

[conman]

"Tesla screwed up!"
"It's just a software issue!"
"SCAM!"
"Tesla never promised any timeline!"
"They're asking for a lawsuit!'
"There's no regulatory approval so it doesn't even matter!"

This discussion has become a never ending story and has been rolling for so long and with basically the same arguments thrown back and forth that my mindset has gone from "passionate" to "tired" to now "i really actually don't care anymore".

What a quagmire

I'm surprised it took you that long. Next you can do what I did and unwatch all these threads and only check in once every week to see if there's anything new or it's just the same schmit all over again. I've been much happier since I started doing that. Still love my car, but have no delusions of what is coming any time soon and avoiding these discussions prevents my love of the car from being tainted.

 

[chillaban]

I'm surprised it took you that long. Next you can do what I did and unwatch all these threads and only check in once every week to see if there's anything new or it's just the same schmit all over again. I've been much happier since I started doing that. Still love my car, but have no delusions of what is coming any time soon and avoiding these discussions prevents my love of the car from being tainted.

Haha, I feel like that expresses my sentiments. I spend more time just checking random threads here, mostly rolling my eyes. The most I expect is to see something cool that verygreen reverse engineered, or maybe see the release notes for some firmware that I can't get just to see if something cool is coming….

But man, the negativity is really depressing sometimes. It's like having an evil voice inside my head saying I'm supposed to hate my car.

 

[BigD0g]

Love my car, hate the fake promises...

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

I plan on paying upfront for the fsd feature on my M3. Hopefully, fsd won't be involved in a Class Action Lawsuit in the not to distant future.

This. As a perspective Model S buyer, I too plan to pay the $3k extra for the FSD "ability". But, I guess it wouldn't be first time I threw caution to the wind and pissed money away on something stupid!

 

[_jal_]

Haha, I feel like that expresses my sentiments. I spend more time just checking random threads here, mostly rolling my eyes. The most I expect is to see something cool that verygreen reverse engineered, or maybe see the release notes for some firmware that I can't get just to see if something cool is coming….

But man, the negativity is really depressing sometimes. It's like having an evil voice inside my head saying I'm supposed to hate my car.

It appears as if @oktane's lobotomy upon being banned was a success, so maybe we all should do that.

 

[calisnow]

With other companies we are seeing either data, more demos, researchers...all we have from Tesla is a set of two sped up videos from last year...I just wish they were a little more forthcoming with where they are...Elon posted a video of some awesome SpaceX rocket landing failures. Granted, SpaceX isn't a publically traded company, still, I like that they owned up those failures and those failures served as a learning experience. Show me some FSD fails. Show me progress...Nissan has had a self driving car in the works for the last four or five years now and they often show it off. Over the years I've seen videos when it was downright scary and how their tech has improved over time.

We all are hungering for information as owners/fans - but if ran Tesla I would also keep my mouth shut and fire anybody who didn't. Dollars drive everything Jeff.

• Nissan and other automakers which do not actually have a product on the market to purchase now: They aren't any more forthcoming than Tesla is when it does not serve their interests. Auto makers which do not have a product to sell in a world in which Tesla is threatening the market share of every single other automaker - have a strong incentive to show off videos of their R&D to the public. Why is this? It's to reassure their shareholders that the C-Suite set is not sitting on their collective hineys at HQ while the NPV of their business drops through the toilet. I'm convinced this is why Audi is slinging a ludicrously crippled "Level 3" A8 this year - it's just a marketing stunt to also show the world that Audi isn't being left in the dust.
• SpaceX: SpaceX has a product to sell - space launches - and it has 16 successful stuck landings in a row right now. Why not share a great video of the blood sweat, tears and failure that went into developing this amazing success - now that the failures are in the past. If SpaceX was taking $$$DEPOSITS$$$ for rocket launches while the rockets were still in development would @JeffK's marketing consulting firm advise the CEO to start posting up videos of his rockets exploding on the launch pad? I don't think so.

Tesla is doing the right thing, business-wise, by keeping us in the dark. They've made their claims that the current cars are headed toward "full autonomy pending regulatory approval" - they're selling hardware - they're updating software - that's enough. The last thing Tesla's stock owners need is videos of testing fails going viral and candid interviews with engineers going "gosh golly - this here is a hard problem. We're workin' on it..." while the Model 3 is ramping up and the entire world is focused on whether Musk will fail or succeed to bring "full self driving" to fruition.

 

[calisnow]

@JeffK - furthermore, Tesla's approach to developing full autonomy may in fact be a real world case of confidence producing future reality. If the massive fleet learning, video-uploading approach turns out to be the only way to build a reliable FSD fleet - then Tesla has a huge head start and the more cars they get on the road (ie the more they SELL) the higher the odds of the R&D effort succeeding. So - keeping up public confidence in the success of the project will help keep sales flowing - which may help bring the claim to reality. If you believe that is true - then again, Tesla is better off staying silent.