How long could the model 3 be delayed before Tesla would be in serious trouble?

[Robert.Boston]

aronth5: Indeed. It's just that it astounds me how the sentiment seems to permeate discussions even on enthusiast pages. There is a point where realism, pragmatism, or pessimism crosses the line to being naysayer. I can understand why people would be concerned, and they certainly have a right to express those concerns. But it amazes me that some would prefer to give up on the very possibility of success at such an early juncture.

I haven't heard anyone doubt that Tesla will release the Model 3, or that it will be an astounding car at a killer price. What people are questioning is the timetable. The Model X, which is merely a new chassis atop an existing drivetrain (at least, that's how it was billed by Tesla), is about a year behind the originally announced schedule, do you have good reason to believe the Model 3 won't see similar delays

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Didn't someone post something saying Panasonic was planning to increase its investment in the Gigafactory to try and begin production of the Model 3 one year early?

 

[aronth5]

I haven't heard anyone doubt that Tesla will release the Model 3, or that it will be an astounding car at a killer price. What people are questioning is the timetable. The Model X, which is merely a new chassis atop an existing drivetrain (at least, that's how it was billed by Tesla), is about a year behind the originally announced schedule, do you have good reason to believe the Model 3 won't see similar delays

If you read thru some of the comments on various web sites you will find some people who still insist the Model 3 won't happen. Fortunately, the number is small and decreasing. Frankly I think many are just trolls who will write just about anything to get attention.

 

[schonelucht]

But a model 3 that comes out significantly different on any of the core promises (Audi A4 class comparable, 300km range, 25k EUR base price, roll out starting 2017) is that still the Model 3 that we talk about and hope will give the competitive edge to Tesla? Past experience suggests that at least the price and timetable as communicated by Tesla on announcement are hopelessly optimistic. We also know that Elon likes to overhype the quality of their standard car features (best in class autopilot etc) so that puts another of the core promises in doubt. Only range is something we can depend upon that Tesla will deliver.

 

[Gerardf]

But a model 3 that comes out significantly different on any of the core promises (Audi A4 class comparable, 300km range, 25k EUR base price, roll out starting 2017) is that still the Model 3 that we talk about and hope will give the competitive edge to Tesla? Past experience suggests that at least the price and timetable as communicated by Tesla on announcement are hopelessly optimistic. We also know that Elon likes to overhype the quality of their standard car features (best in class autopilot etc) so that puts another of the core promises in doubt. Only range is something we can depend upon that Tesla will deliver.

Your 25k EUR figure seems pushing Elon’s 35k$ promise a bit (and I assume you mean Ex VAT)

I would still be happy seeing a 35k EUR Tesla Model-3 in the market and am of the opinion such offering becoming available combined with Tesla's SuC infrastructure will be the tipping point for the car industry to switch to EV's in the millions of car's per year not long thereafter. One (or even 2) year delay will not change that. Availability of Autopilot will not be factor. A good quality, good looking car with 300km+ range and access to the SuC network will do.

Of course, 2 years delay will not be 'nice' for the shareholders, but even that will just be a delay and nothing catastrophic. In case TESLA has to delay such a <35k EUR, 300km range, 200k+ yearly production EV, very likely so will others.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I've always understood Elon's goal with pricing the Model 3 to be matching the BMW 3-series price (while blowing it away on performance and operating costs). The 320i starts at $33k in the US, and €34.250 (=$42.200) in Germany. I'll leave it to wiser heads to explain how/why BMW charges 30% more for the same car in Germany than in the US, but the fact remains that Tesla can charge $35k or €35k for the Model 3 and be directly competitive in both markets.

 

[jhm]

2017 Leaf should show what Nissan is learning from Tesla: longer range, battery size options, and no need for freakish design. Next Nissan Leaf to get more conservative look, 250-mile range? | New and Used Car Reviews, Research & Automotive-Industry News & LeftLaneNews

 

[Red Sage]

When it comes to 'breaking promises'... If the first 50,000 units of Model ≡ built have a dual motor AWD drivetrain and a 100 kWh battery pack for a $39,900 USD base price... And the 60 kWh, RWD version appears months later for a $29,900 USD base price... I think I could find it in my heart to forgive the transgression by Tesla Motors. Yeah. ;-)

 

[jhm]

When it comes to 'breaking promises'... If the first 50,000 units of Model ≡ built have a dual motor AWD drivetrain and a 100 kWh battery pack for a $39,900 USD base price... And the 60 kWh, RWD version appears months later for a $29,900 USD base price... I think I could find it in my heart to forgive the transgression by Tesla Motors. Yeah. ;-)

Yeah, with a broken promise like that, I might have to buy one for myself.

I've been thinking about what it could mean that the Model 3 is 20% smaller than the Model S. I'm not sure what dimension that is on, but suppose it means that it uses 20% less energy per mile. That would imply a M3 with 70 kWh with D could have a range of 300 mIles (=240/0.80). A 55D should be capable of more than a 235 mile range. So offering both a 55D and 70D would be a pretty impressive line up.