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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
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- Model 3
Test scores are not a good analogy, because unless it's a learning computer, you have no idea if the next test score will be higher than the last.
We DO have a pretty good idea that in general, Tesla is making more cars today vs yesterday, and today vs 7 days ago.
One of the key things they said, I forget the exact date, but they had made 1/2 the cars they've ever made from Dec 9-Dec 31
That's 1200 from the end of July to Dec 8 and 1200 from Dec 9-Dec 31.
That's a very big ramp in those 22 days. And since they said they are being careful about quality, I think it's safe to say that each day they are making a little more than the next day.
So his analogy, of how you make 793 cars in a week, but by the end of the week you're making around the number to extrapolate to 1k/wk was spot on.
Ha ha..... you guys are hilarious!!!
So - if I say I can bake cakes at a rate of ten per hour - Certain people here would expect me to bake 240 cakes per day - which ain't gonna happen.
But I would be blasted and called a liar.
However, my claim of the rate is still true.
Can't wait to see the discussion on why the range is not 'as claimed'.
So - if I say I can bake cakes at a rate of ten per hour - Certain people here would expect me to bake 240 cakes per day - which ain't gonna happen.
But I would be blasted and called a liar.
However, my claim of the rate is still true.
Can't wait to see the discussion on why the range is not 'as claimed'.
The known bottle neck was the battery module manufacturing line.
If they only said we built cars at a 1k/wk rate, what clarity does that give on whether the bottle neck is resolved? They could have stockpiled a month's worth of pack production to pull that off.
Welding line: good
Paint line: good
Drive unit assembly: good
Door, IP, other subs: good
Final assembly: good
What point are you tring to convey ?
You are not being consistent in contrasting your rate that you are providing, and a mythical "certain people" who are expanding your rate to Tesla. Tesla said 1k/wk rate. Are you saying people are projecting beyond Tesla's statement?
Regarding the cake analogy:
Because you can't or because you won't? A machine that can hit 10 cakes an hour without maintenance can make 240 a day. If you don't want to make cakes for 24 hrs, that's your prerogative/ limitation.
However, expanding on the proof by analogy: If you can make 10 cakes a day/hour, and you have sufficient ingredients, why can't you make 50 cakes in 5 days/5 hours?
Correct, but as I understand it, having each line hit a 1k rate individually does not mean all lines hit it simultaneously because of buffering. Couldn’t one line hit it one day, and another the next, such that they never produced complete cars at a rate of 1k?
Edit: Or is there a final line, that would have to produce the cars, hitting that rate a guarantee that they did achieve that rate?
navguy12
Active Member
In any event, if the line was producing 1000 a week since 01 Jan 2018, the VINs should all be in the 5000 range now.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The meeting at the Detroit Auto show was reported.
More private meeting with large institutional investors than secret.
Reciprocity
Active Member
They do not have much room to store much of anything in terms of unfinished goods so its hard to manage these bursts that are on different parts of the greater line. This further complicates the ramp because you really need to push the rate up to see what breaks. Things might work great at 500/w but fail at 1000+ and its hard to get to that point if bottlenecks are further down the line because you cant have some crazy buffer on the order of 1000 bodies for example, there is no room.
As we know, the original issue was packs, so you could make that many cars that where just waiting for packs because there was no where to really store them. In theory, they could have been shipped to service centers, then shipped the packs separately, but I dont believe anything like that happened as we would have known. More likely is that they manually built(in part) as many packs as they could by hand and fixed other bottlenecks on the line as best they could given the space available for buffer/overflow.
Having stated all of that, when bottlenecks clear, there could be decent sized jumps until the system breaks again. Could go from 700/Week at the end of 2017 to 1500/W by the end of January. It just depends on how many issues they encounter and the nature. Whats clear is that more invites are going out, across the country, and higher and higher VINs are being reported, though its so hit and miss that know one really has any clue how many cars have actually been made and delivered. One thing is clear, to me at least, that they are delivering the cars they are making because just do not have much room to store them and the places they do are in the open for everyone to see.
Our data on VINs is spotty, but do we really expect people to come immediately to this forum or reddit to post closeup pictures of the VIN? This is not what people do when they get a new car. From my own small service center in highland park, IL, I know that 2 where delivered there recently. This is probably the smallest of a half dozen locations in the area. They said that they should get demo cars soon, which is another sign that people want to see it before they finish their order and that Tesla has cars to show for display.
I can tell you that I am a fanatical follower of Tesla and clearly on this forum often and I will not be putting my info into any tracking spreadsheet, not because I dont want to share, but because I am just to damn busy. I probably wont take tons of shots and post them here either (I am way to shy, good looking and humble). I will probably update my forum sig, like I did when I got my Model S, and that will pretty much be it for me. So I wouldnt make any investment decisions about what the highest VIN found in the wild is. What seems to be true is that the buzz about an already hyper-hyped car keeps building, not dissipating. To me this is to be expected and more and more as you see them on the roads. By the end of this year, there might be more 3s on the road then S+X and that will have an incredible impact on the brands perception. Also, the types of people driving those cars will be younger and more social, not home bodied old folks like myself. I could see an tremendous demand for S/X after the holidays as kids show their families the model 3. When I was younger, we would all pile into a car and go to lunch at work. This is going to be a force multiplier for the demand for the vehicle and all things Tesla. Its one thing to hear about the car, its a whole nother to ride in one and feel the difference first hand. Everyone is aware of the Tesla laugh or that look on peoples faces when you floor it. This car is not super fast, but its enough for the average person to give them butterflies like a rollercoster, especially when they do not expect it. The challenge that every EV make has is that they must have a compelling enough vehicle to get people to pickup a pencil and run the numbers, because the initial costs are higher. People wont really do it if they are not inspired to do so. I dont know anyone who does not want a good looking vehicle, really the best looking vehicle they can afford. So its critical that they sharpen that pencil and know the numbers. I can 100% guarantee they will do this and you have no farther to look then the Model S. It is clear that many people have gone the extra mile to buy one and those extra miles are much easier to manage for the model 3. Tesla would have failed by now if it did not make cars that made people lust after them. An econo box wouldn't have been profitable enough and wouldn't have built the kind branding and buzz, though it might have sold more total units and been much more practical for most people. But humans are practical and Tesla understands that.
I believe it is this realization that has the stock going up in the face of terrible production/delivery numbers for the Model 3. Not everyone understands that they moved mountains to pull production forward and that Tesla is actually still early. But they do understand that more people are talking about the Model 3 then bitcoin at this point and that is something they can understand. Look no further then the glowing reviews and mobs of people to see in person. Its very iphone like and investors get that. In fact they have been looking for an iphone like product to invest in for a long time.
There is only one main assembly line, if that is what you mean. The other lines are for component sub-assemblies (like the battery pack or drive unit). As long as there isn't a resource conflict between lines, the rates are valid individually and relative timing is a non-factor.
It was reported as rate. Not quantity.
I reported my capability of cake baking (10 cakes/hr). I never said that meant I will continue at that rate 24 hrs per day. Seems to be a slight confusion of understanding 'rate' here - or maybe an intentional one.
Yes, you reported as rate of 10 cakes per hour. Then said "certain people" would expect you to make 240 cakes in a day (Which you stated you would not do v.s. could not do without a rational for why it is not going to happen).
I am not understanding what that had to do with Tesla saying their lines were running at a 1k/wk rate.
To match your analogy, Tesla would need to say they ran at a 200/day rate or 9 an hour and "certain people" were then saying that means 1k/wk.
I truly don't understand what your point was.
BTW, if you were in manufacturing, you would have likely made those ten cakes. Running for only an hour is not a great span of time for an accurate run at rate test with such a low output of low value items, especially with baking time. Tying into Tesla, they made 700+ cakes and drew a rate from that.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I agree 1000%.
We are 3 weeks into 2018. The VINs should be up around 6000....if they were indeed making Model 3's around 1K a week. Right?
VIN's were sitting around 3000 December 31'st.
Hey..shhhhh. The last time I posted something like what you guys are talking about, my posts were moved to a thread called "ramblings" about the VIN number. Even though this is truly healthy conversation and not rambling.
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Garlan Garner
Banned
I was thinking that delivered cars were sitting at 3k in December.....so delivered cars should be sitting around 6K now. I'm comparing apples with apples here.
Agreed, there is some lag between reports from the field and the NHTSA registered VINs in the 8k range (including a few AWD).
Reciprocity
Active Member
Yeah but total cars delivered in Q4 last year was under 1800, so yeah, not 3000 in December. Cars manufactured take 2-3 weeks to deliver depending on where they go. Max delivers for all of December are probably 3100, which would be done Dec.
Just adding this in:
Q4 was 1,550 3s delivered, 860 in transit, and 2,425 produced. Q3 was 222 delivered and 260 produced.
So H2: 2,685 built, 1,772 delivered.
