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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I hope I'm not alone in feeling that Elon's tweets are just absurd. He's CEO of a 60B company - why is he picking fights with the media right now?

Because he is currently substantially cut off from the capital he needs to build more factories. Partly his fault for bad production management, and partly because of unfair attacks.

Musk needs the game to change.
 
I like how certain people (like FireBirdAlpha, YasB, Seesaw, sweter etc) here want from Musk that he just take it without retaliation for what he perceives as lies about Tesla from media.

Yeeeah, bad Musk, bad Musk, how he dares to defend himself!

This isn't what I'm saying. I'm all for Musk to defend himself (it's in my direct interest as a shareholder), I just don't like the form.
 
0. 'Being a journalist ' has no impact on proper questions (not a licensed career). Does the title bequeath rights mere citizens do not have?

1. You don't know whether he asked in private (Lopez did not return our calls within 72 hours)

1.5 News journalist ask questions live

2. Nothing supports Lopez having a second source for the base material before publishing it as truth. (given Tesla and Tripp's statements that the numbers were bogus/made up, it seems highly unlikely)

3. Elon has not stated anything as fact (other than having a source and the contents of public documents)

you're definitely a software developer :)
 
I don't give Tripp an ounce of credibility. I agree that he seems like an idiot.

But I do give Business Insider and Linette credibility. Business Insider isn't a random blog like electrek or insideevs - this is a massive website, one of the most viewed in the world.

And the Editor-in-Chief of Business Insider has put the entire publication's credibility on the line by standing up for Linette.

The idea that a reporter from Business Insider paid a source is just wrong. It's wrong on several levels. Lorette would know better given her background and training at arguably the best undergraduate journalism program. And Business Insider wouldn't allow it.

-------------------------------------------------------

If Tesla actually had evidence that Linette paid Tripp, why haven't they released it? Why don't they just outright state the accusation rather than masking it in questions?

If they don't have evidence, then what the hell is Elon doing on twitter?
Henry Blodget CEO of Business Insider is permanently barred from the securities industry.
 
When good people do nothing, the evil prevails.

Ignoring is in troll's intent and best interest.
By ignoring you are removing yourself from the debate.
You are leaving the uninitiated unprotected and trolls are free to seed their bad meme.
Ignoring the trolls is causing harm.
There is no other way to win a war than fight.
Not disagreeing, however I have and continue to fight in other way's.
I am an evangelical about Tesla with whoever I meet in person.
I bought the car and demonstrate it's superior capabilities all the time.
I buy and continue to buy the stock.
So many other's on here are much better "word smith's" than I.

My BP can't take lies and stupidity very well.
 
Tesla’s Elon Musk is sending engineers to Thailand to help free soccer team trapped in cave
Published: July 6, 2018 8:55 a.m. ET

The Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.75% chief executive said in a series of tweets Thursday that he is sending engineers from two of his companies to Thailand to assist with the effort to bring out the 12 members of a Thai soccer team and their coach from a flooded cave that has kept them underground for about two weeks.

The boys, who range in age from 11 to 16, were found alive on Monday after going missing in a flooded network of caves. The rescue effort is being hampered by high water levels that are not expected to subside for weeks and their inability to swim.

Musk said his Boring Co., whose main mission is to dig tunnels for futuristic transport systems, and SpaceX, his space exploration company, will send engineers to Thailand on Saturday. The rescue effort can use these companies’ battery packs, air pumps and tubes, Musk said, and speculated that a nylon tube could be inserted into the cave and then inflated with air, “like a bouncy castle.”

Tesla’s Elon Musk is sending engineers to Thailand to help free soccer team trapped in cave
 
Should we then close this board and go home? Looks like we can't have any opinions, especially those that criticise Elon.

Ah, there’s a classic ask a question we all know the answer to ‘journalistic’ article title if I ever did see one. Followed by a passive aggressive illogical statement.

Elon is not a journalist. And good journalists would ask those questions privately before publishing. Isn't Lopez not verifying her stories with Tesla part of this drama? Now Elon is doing the same.

None of us here are journalists. Doesn’t mean we can’t distinguish a good one from a bad one.

Clearly Ms. Lopez didn’t verify squat but it’s yet to be determined if Elon has or has not. Still, I generally will support tit for tat. That is fair after all. If you can dish it, you better be able to take it. With but a couple of exceptions, Elon has taken a lot more dishing than he’s dished out over the years.

And as a shareholder for over 6 years, I support him protecting his company any way he sees fit. Whether I agree with his approach or not is irrelevant; his company, his way. I am free to cash out and walk away at anytime, as is everyone else and I can do it without adding to the noise, waving my arms and ranting - because that’s always so helpful.

As I said earlier, my money is on Elon. I feel I know his character fairly well. At least well enough to have never been surprised by any of his actions to date. I think he has information we don’t and in time it will all become abundantly clear.
 
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Wow you guys keep responding to trolls who are here to create chaos and earn something for each response.
Do you also give out money to panhandlers?
Best to walk on by and pretend they don't exist.
Give to one and there's a chance you'll be hounded by all of them.

I give them $5 or so and tell them to stop voting Republican.
 
Tesla’s Elon Musk is sending engineers to Thailand to help free soccer team trapped in cave
Published: July 6, 2018 8:55 a.m. ET

The Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.75% chief executive said in a series of tweets Thursday that he is sending engineers from two of his companies to Thailand to assist with the effort to bring out the 12 members of a Thai soccer team and their coach from a flooded cave that has kept them underground for about two weeks.

The boys, who range in age from 11 to 16, were found alive on Monday after going missing in a flooded network of caves. The rescue effort is being hampered by high water levels that are not expected to subside for weeks and their inability to swim.

Musk said his Boring Co., whose main mission is to dig tunnels for futuristic transport systems, and SpaceX, his space exploration company, will send engineers to Thailand on Saturday. The rescue effort can use these companies’ battery packs, air pumps and tubes, Musk said, and speculated that a nylon tube could be inserted into the cave and then inflated with air, “like a bouncy castle.”

Tesla’s Elon Musk is sending engineers to Thailand to help free soccer team trapped in cave

Interestingly, the article I read on the topic didn’t fail to take a number of jabs at Elon, starting with calling him a ‘wannabe’ rescuer.

So someone tries to do a humanitarian act and we have to be a dick when we report on it? Great ‘journalism’. :rolleyes: And the media wonders why so many are not on its side.
 
The media is no more an authority than the US Government, which Musk sued in order to get justice for SpaceX. At that time, many thought it was an idiotic play to sue the US Government, a huge, powerful entity which was also their desired customer. In the end, fighting for what was right was the winning play. I see his current war with the media in the same light, he must fight disinformation with truth and shine light on the potential biases and ulterior motives of journalists. Silence can be construed as tacit admission of fault.
 
I made a very unscientific spreadsheet to see how many Model 3s per week Tesla would need to add to reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year. Linearly, it's only 195. Is this do-able? 195 extra cars per week?

7/1/2018 5,000
7/8/2018 5,195
7/15/2018 5,390
7/22/2018 5,585
7/29/2018 5,780
8/5/2018 5,975
8/12/2018 6,170
8/19/2018 6,365
8/26/2018 6,560
9/2/2018 6,755
9/9/2018 6,950
9/16/2018 7,145
9/23/2018 7,340
9/30/2018 7,535
10/7/2018 7,730
10/14/2018 7,925
10/21/2018 8,120
10/28/2018 8,315
11/4/2018 8,510
11/11/2018 8,705
11/18/2018 8,900
11/25/2018 9,095
12/2/2018 9,290
12/9/2018 9,485
12/16/2018 9,680
12/23/2018 9,875
12/30/2018 10,070
 
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I made a very unscientific spreadsheet to see how many Model 3s per week Tesla would need to add to reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year. Linearly, it's only 195. Is this do-able? 195 extra cars per week?
You should play Factorio... That's not how it works. First you spend hours developing a perfect line. When you're satisfied, you take that line and copy/paste it... As many times as you need. 10k? 20k? 30k? What weekly rate do you want?
 
I made a very unscientific spreadsheet to see how many Model 3s per week Tesla would need to add to reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year. Linearly, it's only 195. Is this do-able? 195 extra cars per week?

7/1/2018 5,000
7/8/2018 5,195
7/15/2018 5,390
7/22/2018 5,585
7/29/2018 5,780
8/5/2018 5,975
8/12/2018 6,170
8/19/2018 6,365
8/26/2018 6,560
9/2/2018 6,755
9/9/2018 6,950
9/16/2018 7,145
9/23/2018 7,340
9/30/2018 7,535
10/7/2018 7,730
10/14/2018 7,925
10/21/2018 8,120
10/28/2018 8,315
11/4/2018 8,510
11/11/2018 8,705
11/18/2018 8,900
11/25/2018 9,095
12/2/2018 9,290
12/9/2018 9,485
12/16/2018 9,680
12/23/2018 9,875
12/30/2018 10,070

Tesla is guiding to 6000/week by the end of August, which is well below the estimate in your spreadsheet (about 6700). If they meet that and continue growing at the same pace (1000 cars every two months) they would be at 8000/wk at the end of the year. Since the focus is on profitability and cash flow and not just volume I am guessing 7000/week by 12/31.

That would be a total run rate of about 450K/yr -- 350K 3 plus 100K S/X. Not too shabby.
 
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I made a very unscientific spreadsheet to see how many Model 3s per week Tesla would need to add to reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year. Linearly, it's only 195. Is this do-able? 195 extra cars per week?

Linear ramps aren't how this works. As with the tent (which is presumably pumping out 1000/week), it's not as simple as "just get better."

Ultimately, the machines are built to operate at a certain rate, and so they'll need to buy more machines. According to their Q1 letter, they're still planning for just under 3B in CapEx for 2018. On the call, CFO said that the overwhelming majority of that spend was for the Model 3.

Some reports suggest that Tesla has been experimenting with how to make the machines go faster, operating them outside of their specifications.

Another smart move by Tesla was moving to 24/7 production; if machines are the bottleneck, this lets them have the machines always on (rather than buying another line to support 20/5 production).

The 6000/week seems very doable in the short-term by replacing manual tasks with machinery on GA3 or GA4.

But to hit 10k/week, I think they're going to need a GA5. It's hard to see how they hit 10k/week without that.

Two problems with this model:
  1. 24/7 production is more costly, especially if the reports of 12-hour shifts and having engineers, finance, HR folks working on the lines and doing manual labor. The factory workers are getting beefy overtime compensation, and the talent will get burnt out.
  2. It's harder to sustain production when you're constantly installing new machinery and new lines. The fact that they are trying to get more cars out of existing lines is worrying: if the lines are already profitable, wouldn't it be smarter to go get cheap debt financing to install more lines?
 
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