General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

FYI.

The Christine Todd Whitman op-ed in CNBC is on twitter. Please like and retweet.
CNBC intl
CNBC International on Twitter

Phil lebeau
Phil LeBeau on Twitter

 

[Todd Burch]

@bonnie don't mean to call you out but what's up with liking an anti-Electrek Tweet containing a story from TheDrive written by none other than Niedermeyer himself?

Have you been possessed by the shorts?

 

[Yuri_G]

My bad, next time I'll find an article on the beacon of truth website that is Electrek.
I forgot anything not glorifying Tesla is FUD.
When Tesla announces they've come up short again, I'll accept your apology for accusing me of posting FUD.

Coming up short but still outselling the Bolt 3-4 times over. Guess GM couldn't ramp faster than little ole Tesla.

 

[Mrr82]

You added a zero. The system in South Australia was rumored to be about $450/kWh, so 1.1GWh would be about half a billion.

Isn’t that the rumored cost to make not sell?

 

[MP3Mike]

Isn’t that the rumored cost to make not sell?

No. Elon said $250/kWh for the batteries plus installation and inverters. So $450/kWh is probably pretty close to an all-in cost.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Far be it from me to defend a bear, but your definition doesn't cut it for me. The goal was to be producing 5k/week as of 6/30, not to have produced 5k in a 7-day period where everyone including Karpathy is on the line. We've seen EoQ numbers not hold up as consistent go-forth levels in every Model 3 quarter so far.

Personally I'll be satisfied if they are over 4k weekly going forward from here. I don't particularly care whether they've actually hit 5k yet. The important part is that they're in position to start Q3 in a manner that is ready to achieve profitable production.

I would really love it if they can give a quarterly guidance for Q3. Something like 60K M3 would be a home run for me.

 

[oneday]

You added a zero. The system in South Australia was rumored to be about $450/kWh, so 1.1GWh would be about half a billion.

No. Elon said $250/kWh for the batteries plus installation and inverters. So $450/kWh is probably pretty close to an all-in cost.

So I wanted to calculate to see what this breaks down to in cost per kWh for the lifetime of the system. Based on Australia residential warranty the Powerwall 2 is covered up to 3800 cycles. At $250 per kWh of battery that works out to 8.9 cents per kWh and at $450 per kWh that equals 11.8 cents per kWh.
I have no idea what the industrial warranty would be but I’m guessing it would exceed this.

Anybody have better numbers on these economics.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I would really love it if they can give a quarterly guidance for Q3. Something like 60K M3 would be a home run for me.

We have 13 weeks in the quarter. Say they shut down for 2x1 weeks for whatever reason. Leaves us 11 weeks.

If they never make it above 5k, that's 55k (or half the BMW i3 global lifetime sales -random example, just sayin')

If they go to 6k as planned but hit a wall, that's still 66k.

Any better ramp than that and the sky is the limit, but from what we know so far 10k is targeted for q1 2019 only.

 

[Foghat]

$500M, or around 5% of 2017 revenues, for a single project? Yeah, that's a decent number. What do you consider big?

I think the real story is consider this in the market place for utility peaker plants. If Tesla is proving out a faster, cheaper way to fill in utility capacity in the US (and globally), you can say goodbye to the push for natural gas to take over and that’s stepping on some very entrenched toes. Ever wonder why Buffet has been mentioning Elon a lot over the past couple years? Not just about neat cars he’s making, it’s about his utilities.

Buffet is big rail too. What happens if Tesla semi platooning edges in on that bottomline there as well? Mega chargers & super chargers creating their own power production capabilities (batteries and solar) in addition to grid connected to provide truckers cheaper, FIXED fuel costs in these platooning operations can’t sit well with him either.

As Tesla accelerates this transition and other business follow their lead, a lot of interest in having Tesla slow down. The PG&E project is just another example how multidimensional Tesla inc really is, which adds to this desire by some to somehow slow progress or take it over/hijack it for themselves.

I think we have to start looking at utility stocks as well in measuring another aspect of Tesla’s value.

 

[DrKenneth]

This guy tries very hard to fit the reality to his narrative. E.g. Elon never said he will not do a capital raise ever. He just said he doesn’t need one for 2018.

Also, shorts are the enemy. Suggesting otherwise is just laughable.

He has indeed did not say "never" but I haven't seen him say 2018 either. Only that they "will not be raising capital" which leaves it up to interpretation. I would agree that given how ridicolous "never" would be that it probably only 2018. Either way, that does not affect his valuation.

As far shorts go, I think calling them enemies is being a bit melodramatic. Clearly Tesla is very highly valued compared to it's current business so it's natural and not like they've had a big impact in practical terms. All they can do is talk, so the best counter is just to execute well. If they do, then shorts can only delay the inevitable and get burned in the process.

 

[22522]

He has indeed did not say "never" but I haven't seen him say 2018 either. Only that they "will not be raising capital" which leaves it up to interpretation. I would agree that given how ridicolous "never" would be that it probably only 2018. Either way, that does not affect his valuation.

As far shorts go, I think calling them enemies is being a bit melodramatic. Clearly Tesla is very highly valued compared to it's current business so it's natural and not like they've had a big impact in practical terms. All they can do is talk, so the best counter is just to execute well. If they do, then shorts can only delay the inevitable and get burned in the process.

I remember "this year."

Shorts are trying to kill, but they can't. Not friends to the company. But they help people accumulate and swing trade profitably, which helps good will, or Tesla affinity.

Shorts (will have) have made it possible for me to purchase a Model 3 (I hope as a no baulk transaction at $63K). So maybe friends as unintended consequences.

 

[Boomer19]

I remember "this year."

Shorts are trying to kill, but they can't. Not friends to the company. But they help people accumulate and swing trade profitably, which helps good will, or Tesla affinity.

Shorts (will have) have made it possible for me to purchase a Model 3 (I hope as a no baulk transaction at $63K). So maybe friends as unintended consequences.

@DrKenneth
elon said he specifically does not want to raise capital in 2018. he said it’s possible/probable they will wish to do so in 2019.

 

[DrKenneth]

@DrKenneth
elon said he specifically does not want to raise capital in 2018. he said it’s possible/probable they will wish to do so in 2019.

Ok, then I'm wrong about that. He has mentioned it several times, so keeping track of each version is difficult. It seemed likely any way that it would only hold for 2018 as it was completely non-sensical otherwise. Either way, it does not affect the valuation for better or worse.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

A great video I found this morning. I shared it wherever I could...perhaps you guys will see the relevance too.

Dan

 

[avoigt]

Also, this is huge (both literally as in size and for the stock) if it pans out:

Tesla and PG&E are working on a massive ‘up to 1.1 GWh’ Powerpack battery system[/QUOTE]

This is indeed great news and should be looked at more profoundly. TE is in my view vastly undervalued and ignored like an Elon pet project but it has the potential to grow as large as the Auto business. People have a hard time to comprehend the massive cost advantage utilities are able to get with just storing energy for peak hours where crazy expensive gas turbines or similar eat the cake almost away.

Australia has proven to reduce costs by 90% which may be special given the local circumstances but its an unbelievable jump on the bottom line anyway. Every utility on earth has to consider this now as its proven and I am delighted to see that CA is moving with an indeed large installation.

As a side note I was searching for reports on that electrek report as I write this and this is the amount of articles I did find in the media: 0

 

[avoigt]

The CNBC moderator tried hard to get a negative view out of this analyst but failed.

What I like in particular is that when he talked about profit you see him realizing that his target price is too low.

5,000 Model 3s a week is the path to profitability for Tesla, says analyst

 

[RobStark]

Hyundai reportedly eyeing a takeover of FCA

 

[ggies07]

Coming up short but still outselling the Bolt 3-4 times over. Guess GM couldn't ramp faster than little ole Tesla.

GM has other problems than keeping up with the EV transition and they did it to themselves:

General Motors warns Trump: tariffs could lead to 'smaller GM' and fewer jobs

Everyone remember this photo?

 

[RubberToe]

So maybe friends as unintended consequences.

Friends with unintended consequences. That has a certain ring to it. Happened to me once too...

RT

 

[wdolson]

A great video I found this morning. I shared it wherever I could...perhaps you guys will see the relevance too.

Dan

I just watched a more recent video by the same guy:

He lets the bears have their say so to speak and then debunks it fairly well, though he didn't respond to the comment by one guy that the rich people buying Model Ss are doing so to brag at the country club and when their buddy pulls up in an electric long range Mercedes it will be all over.

First off, my absolute last consideration in car buying is what anyone else thinks. I caught flak for 24 years over my last car purchase, which was an "old man car" bought in my 20s. And I've never set foot on a country club.

Anything Daimler is making is just academic interest to me. If I won a Mercedes I'd sell it as quickly as I could.

But that aside, I think this was a well crafted anit-bear argument.