General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yuri_G]

People seen this?

Elon Musk's Brain is not like yours

I post here because it provides IMO one of the most compelling and unsettling arguments for why we can't count on Tesla ever making money (unfortunately: I'm long). Read to the end to get that point.

This has been known for a while. Tesla will always be about how much the company can grow and replace as many gas cars as possible. Less so about becoming the Apple of the car industry. The share price will grow, regardless, so no need to worry there.

 

[Driver Dave]

People seen this?

Elon Musk's Brain is not like yours

I post here because it provides IMO one of the most compelling and unsettling arguments for why we can't count on Tesla ever making money (unfortunately: I'm long). Read to the end to get that point.

I view Elon as very smart, very passionate, and absolutely normal for a smart and passionate person.

When he sips some whiskey - normal
When he occasionally replies back forcefully on twitter (and then realizes it was mistake) - normal
When he tries a puff of a weird looking tobacco and pot thing and then hands it back - normal
When he likes spinal tap and spaceballs - normal
When he is awkward in public - normal
When he works day and night to solve a problem - normal
When he gets really tired after the crunch - normal
When he is honest about his feelings - normal
When he likes to talk about and get excited about big ideas - normal

The biggest thing that freaks people out I think, is that he isn't the usual salesman CEO, always spinning, always selling, always hedging...

He's very upfront about everything - because it is more interesting that way.

He's got plenty of people running the nuts and bolts of the company.

But Tesla will be successful for exactly this one thing:

If you are smart and passionate, you don't want to work for a full of it spinning hedging salesman CEO,
you want to work your ass off for someone smart and passionate and direct and yes normal like Elon.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Third Quarter 2018 Production

3Q18 Production

 

[JRP3]

The efficiency of an AC Induction motor falls off rapidly at the lower end of the power curve, so the statement (peak is slightly less, but average could be higher) is not applicable to motor state on a Tesla at legal US Highway cruising speed that can also pull down single digit 0-60 times.
PM vs AC for qualitative data:
http://www.ashraeboston.org/resources/Documents/Presentations/January Main Presentation.pdf

I'd really like to see comparisons between Tesla motors since their acims use a copper rotor, explicitly excluded from that comparison, and real world usage patterns. Low single digit percentage improvements are good but i would not say a lot.

 

[scaesare]

Nah, they could have kept AC induction motors and built a more advanced charging system to get rid of the ~10% loss they have now, and it would be pretty much the same thing. If that's not enough get another 1MWh/year back from eliminating vampire loss. I'm still amazed that neither of these things improved with Model 3. That's how you know Tesla has no competition.

Eliminating loss in the charging system does nothing for improved range on the road.

 

[scaesare]

Yes.


That's inverter improvement not motor.



Give me some real world numbers and we can decide if the difference is "a lot".

I believe in the post from @KarenRei that you replied to, the term used was "powertrain", which does typically include the inverter in a BEV.

 

[mongo]

I'd really like to see comparisons between Tesla motors since their acims use a copper rotor, explicitly excluded from that comparison, and real world usage patterns. Low single digit percentage improvements are good but i would not say a lot.

Roger that, Tesla's tuning may have narrowed the gap significantly. As a little data point, the efficiency gain of RWD vs AWD S/X shows how tuning the AC motors helps (~3% better range even with the extra weight).

 

[lklundin]

Great article, I like Melissa Schilling already.
This is her twitter handle: Melissa A Schilling (@mschilli1) | Twitter

How come the best Tesla analysts are women (Andrea James, her, that young Canadian CEO)?

Is "that young Canadian CEO" in reference to Ark Invest, or am I just getting old?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Is "that young Canadian CEO" in reference to Ark Invest, or am I just getting old?

I don't think so.
It was a young and smart (and cute) lady that was interviewed on TV about Tesla, and I was impressed by her knowledge and bullishness. It was more than a year ago, so impossible to retrieve in this mess ;-)

 

[AWDtsla]

Eliminating loss in the charging system does nothing for improved range on the road.

YES IT DOES.

EPA ratings are entirely based on power from the wall, not the pack.

 

[mongo]

YES IT DOES.

EPA ratings are entirely based on power from the wall, not the pack.

There is an AC vs PMSR discussion in parallel with the wall to road range information.

Road range is based purely on pack kWh and drivetrain efficiency. Charging could be 50% efficient and you would get the same range out of the car (for twice as much power at the meter).

 

[Krugerrand]

1. Actually this means my brain is more like Musk's.

2. Many already do not expect Tesla to produce dividends until far in the future (see the recent go private then back public statement). Good thing it still has value anyway, otherwise his compensation plan will never vest. If profit growth rate exceeds infrastructure build rate, we could get dividends earlier (that the stable company point).

3. To achieve the Master Plan, Elon needs to be reasonable in his (Tesla) pursuits. So that will provide a regulation factor.

Adding: We know exactly what he’s going to do next and next and next and next. Model Y, semi, Roadster, pickup, Tesla Energy with solar tiles and more powerwalls and more powerpack utility combos, Tesla Network or some such with FSD. Then we’ve got Boring Co in there building tunnels and his AI company.

And we know where Elon’s journey ends: Mars, from money generated by his Tesla shares.

So yeah, there’s no issue with our long investments for a little while.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think so.
It was a young and smart (and cute) lady that was interviewed on TV about Tesla, and I was impressed by her knowledge and bullishness. It was more than a year ago, so impossible to retrieve in this mess ;-)

I know who you’re talking about but also don’t recall her bame but she had an accent.

 

[scaesare]

YES IT DOES.

Ummm, no, it doesn't... your shouting notwithstanding.

EPA ratings are entirely based on power from the wall, not the pack.

I didn't say anything about EPA ratings. I said, "... it does nothing for improved range on the road."

A 80kWh pack can only contain and deliver 80hWh of energy, regardless of if your charger incurred losses of a kilowatt, a megawatt, or a gigawatt in charging that pack.

Once you are on the road, your drivetrain efficiency (not your charger) determines how far you can drive on that 80kWh of energy. A drivetrain that averages 240Wh/mile will get you farther than one that averages 300.

Thus, I repeat: "Eliminating loss in the charging system does nothing for improved range on the road"

 

[lklundin]

How come the best Tesla analysts are women (Andrea James, her, that young Canadian CEO)?

I am not actually sure if predicting TSLA to go to 4k$ (without a timeline) qualifies an analyst to be among the best, but the CEO of Ark Invest is Catherine Wood, who is most bullish on Tesla and who appealed to Elon Musk to not take Tesla private.

Cathie Wood on Twitter

PS. I was somehow trying to be funny in my previous post...

 

[RobStark]

People seen this?

Elon Musk's Brain is not like yours

I post here because it provides IMO one of the most compelling and unsettling arguments for why we can't count on Tesla ever making money (unfortunately: I'm long). Read to the end to get that point.

It is ok if Tesla doesn't pay dividends until Musk sells or dies.

As long as he is creating value.

Musk must hit market cap, revenue, AND EBITDA goals before his compensation plans vest.

He needs those to vest to keep control of Tesla and probably to fund the colonization of Mars.

 

[JRP3]

I believe in the post from @KarenRei that you replied to, the term used was "powertrain", which does typically include the inverter in a BEV.

But "motor" was also specifically mentioned in the post, i.e PM motor more efficient. Also I assume inverter improvements could be applied to both motor architectures.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I don't think so.
It was a young and smart (and cute) lady that was interviewed on TV about Tesla, and I was impressed by her knowledge and bullishness. It was more than a year ago, so impossible to retrieve in this mess ;-)

Here she is

 

[AWDtsla]

Ummm, no, it doesn't... your shouting notwithstanding.


I didn't say anything about EPA ratings. I said, "... it does nothing for improved range on the road."

A 80kWh pack can only contain and deliver 80hWh of energy, regardless of if your charger incurred losses of a kilowatt, a megawatt, or a gigawatt in charging that pack.

Once you are on the road, your drivetrain efficiency (not your charger) determines how far you can drive on that 80kWh of energy. A drivetrain that averages 240Wh/mile will get you farther than one that averages 300.

Thus, I repeat: "Eliminating loss in the charging system does nothing for improved range on the road"

Given how large the pack is and the location of the superchargers, absolute range on a single charge going to 0kWh is irrelevant. You can go for more miles per dollar by fixing all the other losses.

 

[scaesare]

Given how large the pack is and the location of the superchargers, absolute range on a single charge going to 0kWh is irrelevant. You can go for more miles per dollar by fixing all the other losses.

Of course, your judgement about the utility of a given range is a tangential to your (loud) assertion that charging efficiency affects road range.

And incidentally, I disagree with that judgment. If the drivetrain efficiency means I can go 20% farther on a charge, that can make all the difference between 2 supercharging stops, or 3. Or it might make every bit of difference for many routes off of main arteries where there aren't superchargers, and level 1-2 & destination charging will be required.

Refusing to acknowledge the reality of how the factors affect things just does a disservice to others here who may be trying to understand how it all works.