General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

There is this underlying thing too:
EPA expected to declare Obama car efficiency rules too strict

Seems some states will fight back.(CA etc.)

TSLA has no choice but to continue with batteries, but if this takes into affect, it might actually slow down others and have them continue on ICE path for longer ...

California’s Ready to Retaliate If Trump Cuts Auto Rules, Sources Say

"California is said to be poised to retaliate by doing something that automakers have feared: de-coupling the state’s rules with those set in Washington."

"California intends to counter punch by revoking its so-called deemed to comply provision, two people familiar with the matter said. The obscure-but-important state rule declares that carmakers that satisfy the EPA’s tailpipe greenhouse gas standards automatically fulfill California’s rules too."

 

[Paracelsus]

Like I said before, Trump's EPA is going to give traditional automakers a sedative in their effort to transition to EV, when what they actually need is some adrenaline.

or a suppository

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

California’s Ready to Retaliate If Trump Cuts Auto Rules, Sources Say

"California is said to be poised to retaliate by doing something that automakers have feared: de-coupling the state’s rules with those set in Washington."

"California intends to counter punch by revoking its so-called deemed to comply provision, two people familiar with the matter said. The obscure-but-important state rule declares that carmakers that satisfy the EPA’s tailpipe greenhouse gas standards automatically fulfill California’s rules too."

I have relatives in IL and IA - states that don't seem to care too much about air pollution and its effects on their children. All that CARB's actions will do is protect itself, but allows the red states kill to their own young.

Is there anyway to stop Scott Pruitt from doing any more damage? By defanging the EPA, he's basically decided that having americans die so that polluters can make more money is perfectly acceptable. The EPA wasn't like this until he systematically gutted the agency from within. Is there anyway to remove him from power?!

 

[X Yes?]

Doesn't these kind of anecdotes get reported every quarter? I don't see what the big deal is.

Elon says everyone pays the same price. These end of the quarter shenanigans, where 50 miles are put on a car; It's now a demo at 20K off! Really?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Elon says everyone pays the same price. These end of the quarter shenanigans, where 50 miles are put on a car; It's now a demo at 20K off! Really?

Elon said that about new cars, not inventory/demo cars.

 

[Curt Renz]

I have relatives in IL and IA - states that don't seem to care too much about air pollution and its effects on their children. All that CARB's actions will do is protect itself, but allows the red states kill to their own young.

Is there anyway to stop Scott Pruitt from doing any more damage? By defanging the EPA, he's basically decided that having americans die so that polluters can make more money is perfectly acceptable. The EPA wasn't like this until he systematically gutted the agency from within. Is there anyway to remove him from power?!

Illinois is a blue state, not a red state. It has voted for the Democratic candidate in each of the last seven presidential elections. Its two US senators are both Democrats, as are 11 of its 18 US House members. Both houses of the state legislature are overwhelmingly Democratic. The governor for the last three years has been a moderate Republican who could easily be unseated in November. The Illinois EPA has always been quite proactive, as is demanded by the legislature.

 

[elasalle]

From the M3 spreadsheet

InsideEV numbers (guesstimates):
Dec 17 - 1016
Jan 18 - 1875
Feb 18 - 2485
March18?

Anyone wanna co- relate/approximate ...

Edit: own fuzzy math
min 4K, max 6.5K for march, which ends up being 1K/week to 1.6K/week.

 

[DragonWatch]

I have relatives in IL and IA - states that don't seem to care too much about air pollution and its effects on their children. All that CARB's actions will do is protect itself, but allows the red states kill to their own young.

Is there anyway to stop Scott Pruitt from doing any more damage? By defanging the EPA, he's basically decided that having americans die so that polluters can make more money is perfectly acceptable. The EPA wasn't like this until he systematically gutted the agency from within. Is there anyway to remove him from power?!

No, there is almost no way in NY we as simple citizens have a snowball's chance in HI. I know my dry humor leaves most left outside the bus without a pass, but Scott will remain even if the current administration was wiped off the whiteboard. This way of thinking runs deeper than one person can make a difference.

Okay, so there is a spot on the big island of Hawaii where the snow falls and sticks. I hate it when my funny comes back to bite me:-( I was just trying to not use the word "hell."

Unless someone has first hand knowledge of Scott's position, I seriously doubt there is a solution anyone has to offer. As an example, I was an OCS officer, and I stood little chance against a fellow academy officer whose brother was the US Ambassador to Germany. FYI ~ all commissioned officer promotions are subject to US Congress approval. Do not worry, he was a couple of year groups ahead of me

Maybe someone here can give us some more uplifting or positive thoughts.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

From the M3 spreadsheet
View attachment 289710

InsideEV numbers (guesstimates):
Dec 17 - 1016
Jan 18 - 1875
Feb 18 - 2485
March18?

Anyone wanna co- relate/approximate ...

Sorry to regurgitate this question, but couldn’t this simply be due to increasing popularity of the spreadsheet?

 

[elasalle]

Sorry to regurgitate this question, but couldn’t this simply be due to increasing popularity of the spreadsheet?

It definitely could, but for folks entering details into TMC spreadsheet currently, I think spreadsheet has always been popular

Let me know if I should add this point in my own comments as an edit

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It definitely could, but for folks entering details into TMC spreadsheet currently, I think spreadsheet has always been popular

Let me know if I should add this point in my own comments as an edit

Put it in your signature

 

[ValueAnalyst]

But just 3 days go you were asking why couldn't we entertain the idea of 5k/wk at the end of March. What is your actual opinion? Is Tesla ramping or not? or do you just want to play devil's advocate all the time?

I don’t WANT to play devil’s advocate all the time, but somebody needs to:

If somebody says, “5,000/wk is not possible by next month,” and I don’t see a path to that conclusion, I’ll point it out, and see if the other person can fill in the holes.

If another person says, “scheduled deliveries more than doubled,” I’ll point out that it may be because of increasing popularity of the spreadsheet, and see if the other person can clarify.

To answer your question, as I explained in an article last week, I think Tesla will produce 12,500, deliver 10,000, currently at 1,500/wk, exit 2,000/wk, and confirm 5,000/wk by June, and I’m continuously looking to prove myself wrong.

 

[MattEnth]

Does it matter if Tesla is making 2500 Model 3s/week in the last week of the quarter?

Tesla claimed to be making 1550/week at the end of last quarter, and yet the average for Q1 is going to be considerably lower than that... Is anyone going to believe the inflated last-week push?

The more important metric is going to be the Model 3 gross margin, which was negative in Q4 last year.

If the gross margin stays negative, the more Model 3s they produce, the worse off they are financially.

 

[larmor]

I've got a large short position on TSLA. I strongly caution trusting ValueAnalyst over Moody's.

Here is what shorts have seen over the last 3 months:
Mod: apparently copyright material deleted. --ggr

Fantastic, I heard Netflix was going to collapse when they doubled their subscription cost with DVD and streaming....

 

[MattEnth]

Fantastic, I heard Netflix was going to collapse when they doubled their subscription cost with DVD and streaming....

Do you have a meaningful response to any of the content? Such as...

• TSLA bonds trading 89 cents on the dollar?
• Continued SEC investigations could make equity raises problematic?
• Negative Model 3 gross margins?

What's your price target? And can you walk me through how you get there?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Tesla claimed to be making 1550/week at the end of last quarter

Lol, can't even get your fact straight, it's your 1st day trolling on this site, and it shows. Bye now.

 

[MattEnth]

Lol, can't even get your fact straight, it's your 1st day trolling on this site, and it shows. Bye now.

Oh, you're right. I had to check, but it was 1550 delivered, 793 produced.

Still, if you believe the Bloomberg tracker at all, it looks like Q1 will average below 793/week.

 

[elasalle]

I've got a large short position on TSLA. I strongly caution trusting ValueAnalyst over Moody's.

Here is what shorts have seen over the last 3 months:
Mod: apparently copyright material deleted. --ggr

I follow M Spie, and Montana Septic and am well aware of these talking point

 

[Do It]

All my holdings are put options, with my own money.

What I was implying - when Elon started talking about crazy stuff (solar shingles / building cars at a certain price point when the industry said it's impossible to make a profit on a car (in the next five years) with that technology at that price point) and he's the CEO of a publicly traded company, he started attracting the wrong sort of attention. The sort of attention where the other side of the trade has amassed a financial position where TSLA is worth more dead than it is alive.

You are just lucky that price dropped recently but don’t you think that your argument is valid. Tsla becomes it is today because it has already achieved a list of things the “industry” thought was impossible. The “industry” is pretty rotten so a smart, charismatic, and energetic leader like Elon surpassing the norm is not too surprising. For anyone who doesn’t’ believe Elon’s ability and vision, he needs watch falcon heavy launch and landing.

 

[elasalle]

I don’t WANT to play devil’s advocate all the time, but somebody needs to:

View attachment 289730

If somebody says, “5,000/wk is not possible by next month,” and I don’t see a path to that conclusion, I’ll point it out, and see if the other person can fill in the holes.

If another person says, “scheduled deliveries more than doubled,” I’ll point out that it may be because of increasing popularity of the spreadsheet, and see if the other person can clarify.

To answer your question, as I explained in an article last week, I think Tesla will produce 12,500, deliver 10,000, currently at 1,500/wk, exit 2,000/wk, and confirm 5,000/wk by June, and I’m continuously looking to prove myself wrong.

Link. On what data did you base your estimates? Back to M3 spreadsheet with a slightly higher curve? And if thats the case, does the popularity logic hold for both?