Fukuta supply role to Tesla

[anticitizen13.7]

So even if Fukuta does ship complete AC induction motors used for propulsion in Tesla Model S and X (which the paper does claim, although it is very scarce on sources for the 'Fukuta Case Study', with the only source being given as 'Information obtained by Fukuta' - and that is for a very tangential fact about pre-2009) - how does this lead in to a short thesis?

It doesn't.

The argument that one should short TSLA based on Fukuta being a Tesla supplier is as nonsensical as arguing that one should short AAPL because Apple uses TSMC to fab A9 processors for the iPhone 6S and iPad Pro.

 

[Avenger]

Yup! Lots of problems with these motors- see Tesla Norway recall. PUTS are much less dangerous than Short - it doesn't mean my thesis will result in being right.

 

[Avenger]

It doesn't.

The argument that one should short TSLA based on Fukuta being a Tesla supplier is as nonsensical as arguing that one should short AAPL because Apple uses TSMC to fab A9 processors for the iPhone 6S and iPad Pro.

Comparing manufacturing i-phones to an auto manufacturing is a rotten comparison. So, feel free not to invest to make money from Tesla Motors collapse.

 

[Gerasimental]

Bill K, that paper was written at some point in mid-2015. They had scaled up to 300k before anyone knew what full Model 3 demand would be, probably on guidance from Tesla. Of course they did not build capacity to build 500k+ parts a year when Tesla wasn't expecting to need that many for another 5 years.

Do you think Tesla Motors, run by Elon Musk, has planned to build 500k cars 2 years from now without giving any thought to where the motors for them will come from?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yup! Lots of problems with these motors- see Tesla Norway recall.

That was a recall in 2014, due to insufficient lubricant applied between the motor and reduction gear. If this was a major problem, the stock would have tanked long before now.

 

[Avenger]

Bill K, that paper was written at some point in mid-2015. They had scaled up to 300k before anyone knew what full Model 3 demand would be, probably on guidance from Tesla. Of course they did not build capacity to build 500k+ parts a year when Tesla wasn't expecting to need that many for another 5 years.

Do you think Tesla Motors, run by Elon Musk, has planned to build 500k cars 2 years from now without giving any thought to where the motors for them will come from?

Yes, Elon Musk has missed most of his goals and he made the current promise to support stock valuation.

 

[Gerasimental]

Yes, Elon Musk has missed most of his goals and he made the current promise to support stock valuation.

I see.

 

[Avenger]

Yes, Elon Musk has missed most of his goals and he made the current promise to support stock valuation.

The research was written in March of 2016 - nice try.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Ugh, I see the derp-train has rolled into the station.

 

[Avenger]

Ugh, I see the derp-train has rolled into the station.

John, can you read the research and then offer your witty commentary!

 

[Skotty]

So what's the real story here? Which parts of the main drive motors does Fukuta produce, if any? And why is it so hard to figure out? Tesla is obviously doing their own windings, assembly, and testing for at least some motors, unless you think the all the videos of this are an elaborate hoax by Tesla (hint -- a seemingly elaborate hoax is almost always elaborate because it's not actually a hoax). Anyone have Elon's phone number?

Ultimately it probably has no real impact on Tesla's success, but based on what we've seen from Avenger and others, the question of Fukuta's role has still not been answered with any certainty as far as I have seen.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

No one has denied Telsa has bought motors from them. Your assertion that they're using them as the drive motors is beyond ridiculous, and it would be wonderful if you could leave your specific brand of crazy at home, instead of bringing it here. Your contributions only serve to bring us all down, and lower the collective IQ of the forum.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The research was written in March of 2016 - nice try.

The article states:

Thus, Fukuta... is expected to ship 55 thousand motors in 2015. In response to this, Fukuta completed construction of a new plant at the end of 2014 and reached 300 thousand motors of production capacity.

Your argument is that Fukuta will not be able to supply sufficient motors to Tesla, based on the article's assertion that Fukuta's maximum capacity is 300k motors/year.

This is a weak argument because, as the article states, the 300k motors/year capacity was reached at the end of 2014, about 18 months ago. A supply limitation in Q4 2014 does not imply the same limitation in late 2018. Tesla wishes to exit 2018 at a run rate of 10,000 cars/week.

 

[Avenger]

John, IQ - Fukuta makes AC induction servo motor - Induction motor as the kine originally designed by Nick Tesla - the name sake for Tesla Motors. There is only one application for a Induction motor in a EV and that is the drive train!

Best regards,

 

[Gerasimental]

The research was written in March of 2016 - nice try.

I can read too. Especially the largest letters of the document and on the frist page.

The journal was published in March 2016, I know.

The paper that you are so excited about, was written before the end of 2015. In your original post, you yourself highlighted the line:

Fukuta has delivered as the sole motor supplier of Tesla, shipping 35 thousand motors in 2014, and is expected to ship 55 thousand motors in 2015'

And in any case, the journal was still published before the Model 3 reveal.

Nice try.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

John, IQ - Fukuta makes AC induction servo motor - Induction motor as the kine originally designed by Nick Tesla - the name sake for Tesla Motors. There is only one application for a Induction motor in a EV and that is the drive train!

Best regards,

Yes, your logic is flawless.

 

[Avenger]

Weak argument is like getting a compliment from the Tesla Fan Boys. Very expensive to expand manufacturing line for Fukuta!

 

[Gerasimental]

Well they'll just have to invest some money then won't they? I can't believe this thread is happening.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Comparing manufacturing i-phones to an auto manufacturing is a rotten comparison.

You did not understand the analogy.

Your argument has been in the past that Tesla will do poorly because it sources components from a Taiwanese company. The faulty logic you apply is that the use of a Taiwanese supplier means poor quality, when it does not. Taiwan has a very advanced and reputable technology industry, of which TSMC is a part.

So what's the real story here? Which parts of the main drive motors does Fukuta produce, if any? And why is it so hard to figure out? Tesla is obviously doing their own windings, assembly, and testing for at least some motors, unless you think the all the videos of this are an elaborate hoax by Tesla (hint -- a seemingly elaborate hoax is almost always elaborate because it's not actually a hoax). Anyone have Elon's phone number?

I'd say the real story is that it doesn't matter where the drive motors come from. Avenger's obsession with Fukuta and Taiwan is as absurd as the people on MacRumors forum who went berserk last year trying to figure out if their iPhone 6S contained an A9 processor fabbed by TSMC of Taiwan or Samsung of South Korea.

 

[Gerasimental]

I'd say the real story is that it doesn't matter where the drive motors come from. Avenger's obsession with Fukuta and Taiwan is as absurd as the people on MacRumors forum who went berserk last year trying to figure out if their iPhone 6S contained an A9 processor fabbed by TSMC of Taiwan or Samsung of South Korea.

Actually I agree with Skotty that the question of Fukuta's exact role is not uninteresting. There does seem to have been some obfuscation (deliberate or not) of the facts. It should not be difficult to find out what Fukuta supplies, and papers like the above, claiming that they supply a finished motor, although they provide no source or evidence, are certainly odd. It does seem that someone seems to think they can benefit from obfuscation here.