Could you point out a few of these reports to the thread please? Hopefully they have accompanying video for diagnosis.There are many reports (YouTube, here on TMC) of serious interventions that are needed even with the latest software. Some people have great experiences, and some are having not so great experiences. In order to get reliability needed for robotaxi, they'd need months of virtually no interventions in order to shake out the last sets of bugs. Look how long they have spent testing the semi or other car models before shipping. It's a long way between "hey, this works pretty well most of the time!" to a fully autonomous robotaxi
Basically I think the rate of improvements is not high enough to be close to shipping and it will take many more releases, perhaps a dozen or more, before it is close to being out of beta.
My feelings are there just a few key things missing currently.
I have a UPL that is fairly complex, but straightforward where FSD has nailed it the last 50 or so times in varying traffic/weather conditions. Why? How can others, nearly identical, fail at a much higher rate? Or why do some FSD drivers have bad failures when others don't? I think it is due to the below and both are not trivial to solve, but are very tractable.
Obviously the Planner rests on top of the entire stack from OccNet/Flow/Obj net to Lane Connectivity to Lanes Net and Merge Net. The planner not only has to improve, but also has to be somewhat resilient to bad output from the stack. These are the first main issue is that the stack is outputting bad info to the planner and the planner is not doing the best it can with the bad data. What happens today is that the bad output is unknown due to lacking short term and long term memory. Neither the stack, nor the planner have enough short and long term memory.
2nd main issue is that not enough very fresh known good static ground truth is being fed into the stack. This is the main hurdle to FSD being solved. I know Tesla is working on this. The first issue, I'm less clear on.
Both of these issues, once solved, will allow FSD to be L4/L5.