Thekiwi
Active Member
Thanks for the well thoguht out reply, appreciate how you weave it into the history of automation.As your post splits FSD into 'unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD', it's likely the disagree / agree in replies will be split between the first two paragraphs on supervised (above) vs the last two paragraphs on unsupervised (below). Supervised FSD are not two points to be toggled from one to the other; they're not even just a line segment with infinite points in between the two ends...supervised FSD and unsupervised FSD are merely two points on a infinite line that extends both backwards before unsupervised FSD and forwards beyond unsupervised FSD. Even today's current supervised FSDb point on that line provides a great deal of value to myself and many others already, far beyond anything else commercially available to us.
The root issue that is being missed is that FSD is being presented as a binary toggle, it's either "unsupervised" or "supervised", as though you envision one day it has very little value and the next day when the switch is flipped it has great value. Consider that, as with most everything else in the universe, there are steps in between, and yes, those steps in between do provide value and are not 'worthless'. Over the past 119 years from the first Ford Model T to the most recent Model X to roll off the line today, people have paid for automation in increments. Between 100% manual and today's FSDb purchasers paid more for changing gears to be automated, then paid more for very crude cruise control that merely kept the gas / air flow rate mechanically open but speed varied based on inclination, then paid more for smarter cruise control that could maintain speed somewhat even when climbing hills, then paid more for traffic-aware cruise control to not hit the car in front of them, then paid more for steering lane assist, and some (myself included) even paid more for FSDb to be able to do things like lane changes and ding when the light turns green and so on. Even something as simple as starting the car wasn't a single-step...people paid more to replace the hand crank with an electric starter, paid more to replace pumping the gas pedal with automatic priming, paid more for push-button starting, and now Tesla cars do not even need to be 'started'. Those who do find value in each incremental step pay more, funding the development that allows for each next incremental step.
TLDR: When saying something is "close to worthless" until it reaches some arbitrary mark of completeness, at the least one should use the phrase "close to worthless to me" to indicate that they understand others may find significant value in all the steps in between. At the best, one should realize while they're saying it that they are setting themselves up to lose out on enjoying everything to be had along the way in between today and that arbitrary point in the future. Queue the music (Miley Cyrus - The Climb - Official Music Video (HQ), 2015).
In retrospect I suppose I should change my stance from being “near worthless” to being a nice option to have If you can afford it. I get what you are saying about the development Of FSD as a long continuous line, but from a business / product marketing perspective the moment it becomes unsupervised and does not require a driver is the moment it becomes an entirely different product. It’s no longer just a driver assistance feature, it’s a personal driver.
Some analogies that maybe highlight the product differences between unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD:
A personal gardener vs some nice high end gardening tools.
A personal chef vs some nice high end kitchen equipment
A tailor vs a nice sewing machine
A security guard vs an alarm system
A builder vs some nice DIY equipment
A cleaner vs some powerful cleaning equipment
The former does the work for you without your presence or attention, the latter requires your presence, attention & some effort.
The value of a “nice to have option“ that is supervision required FSD to tesla is maybe tens of billions in market cap. The value of an approved unsupervised FSD product that requires no human presence is somewhere in the hundreds of billions to trillions (depending on whether other vendors also offer similar)