FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[pimfram]

I remember V11 took like a month to hit my car. I fully expect V12 to not come to me until April.

 

[tivoboy]

I remember V11 took like a month to hit my car. I fully expect V12 to not come to me until April.

I’ll bet, you get it soon. I think there is probably some further unlock of revenue rec. that Tesla thinks they can add to Q1 earnings calculations.

 

[Knightshade]

I’ll bet, you get it soon. I think there is probably some further unlock of revenue rec. that Tesla thinks they can add to Q1 earnings calculations.

How?

AFAIK they already did that late last year when they let everyone with FSD get beta if they wanted it (In NA that is).

Why would 12 unlock any additional?

The 2 remaining unlocks are:

L4 (unlocks the deferred revenue for pre April 2019 FSD buyers who are still explicitly owed L4)-- 12.3 isn't that.

L2 city streets outside of NA (unlocks the remaining deferred revenue for post March 2019 FSD purchases)- AFAIK the EU won't allow that until, at best, quite late this year, more likely sometime in 2025, as red tape holds up new rules on ADAS systems.... leaving just China where the take rate has always been almost nothing so not much revenue waiting even if they could roll it out there.

 

[tivoboy]

How?

AFAIK they already did that late last year when they let everyone with FSD get beta if they wanted it (In NA that is).

Why would 12 unlock any additional?

The 2 remaining unlocks are:

L4 (unlocks the deferred revenue for pre April 2019 FSD buyers who are still explicitly owed L4)-- 12.3 isn't that.

L2 city streets outside of NA (unlocks the remaining deferred revenue for post March 2019 FSD purchases)- AFAIK the EU won't allow that until, at best, quite late this year, more likely sometime in 2025, as red tape holds up new rules on ADAS systems.... leaving just China where the take rate has always been almost nothing so not much revenue waiting even if they could roll it out there.

Do we actually know and have quantified anywhere that these are the only last remaining “unlocks” for RR? has Tesla reported that or some auditing body? Is there never a path to say L3 assumed? It’s always appeared somewhat vague to me, “conditionally” assumed full autonomy., that could unlock more revenue? Interested. Truly.

 

[Knightshade]

Do we actually know and have quantified anywhere that these are the only last remaining “unlocks” for RR? has Tesla reported that or some auditing body?

I mean, it's entirely Teslas own internal accounting decision to recognize revenue or not (though they in theory have an independent auditor on their overall financial statements)

But what OTHER unlocks could there be?

They appeared to recognize a big chunk of deferred end of '22- only really explainable as, and widely reported as, recognizing deferred for all NA buyers post-march-2019 when Beta became available to any FSD owner in NA.... but that they can NOT recognize that for FSD buyers outside NA since FSDB isn't available, so we know that IS one.

We know they haven't fully recognized the remaining deferred rev from the folks who were promised L4, so we know that IS one.


So...what other unlocks does that leave besides those two?

Is there never a path to say L3 assumed?

No version of FSD was sold with an L3 promise, so no?

If you bought before ~March/April 2019 you were promised (at least) L4-- so Tesla still owes you something, and must defer some amount of revenue until hey deliver it.

If you bought AFTER that date you were never promised more than L2 with city streets autosteer--- which FSDb has delivered for some time now and is available to everyone in NA.


Many folks believe (and I've yet to see any other reasonable explanation) that difference in liability is WHY they changed the wording for what FSD bought you at that time.

 

[Hiline]

I may just wait for the next iteration of V12. From reports thus far, V12 is not significantly better than V11; it just makes different kinds of mistakes. Better the devil you know.

 

[TK211X]

I found a spot near some train tracks where FSD 11.4.9 will always run a red light. Like it won’t even slow down it’ll just run a red.

 

[Supcom]

I found a spot near some train tracks where FSD 11.4.9 will always run a red light. Like it won’t even slow down it’ll just run a red.

11.4.9 won't be running it much longer.

 

[zazim]

A significant percentage of the people installing 24.2.7 (11.4.9) are coming of of 2023.44.30.8 or 2023.44.30.14. Meaning they got skipped for 12.3. Including people in the United States on HW3. If that happens to me, I will cancel my subscription.

​

 

[Hiline]

FSD slowed down on the highway due to "emergency lights", which were nowhere to be found, in quick succession. I had to step on the accelerator pedal each time to bring the car back to speed limit and to keep it from being rear ended. First time this emergency lights thing happened to me.

 

[mgs333]

A significant percentage of the people installing 24.2.7 (11.4.9) are coming of of 2023.44.30.8 or 2023.44.30.14. Meaning they got skipped for 12.3. Including people in the United States on HW3. If that happens to me, I will cancel my subscription.

​

You don't have to install it just because they offer it to you.

 

[Acisplat]

A significant percentage of the people installing 24.2.7 (11.4.9) are coming of of 2023.44.30.8 or 2023.44.30.14. Meaning they got skipped for 12.3. Including people in the United States on HW3. If that happens to me, I will cancel my subscription.

​

Still on x.30.8 here, so we'll see what happens in the next couple days before 12.3.1 launches.
Would be cool to be included in the initial 12.3.1 wave since we got skipped for all V12 builds.

 

[JHCCAZ]

A significant percentage of the people installing 24.2.7 (11.4.9) are coming of of 2023.44.30.8 or 2023.44.30.14. Meaning they got skipped for 12.3. Including people in the United States on HW3. If that happens to me, I will cancel my subscription.

If getting v12 is important to you, you definitely shouldn't do that installation if offered. Holding off is certainly not a guarantee that you'll get the next rollout wave, but it keeps you in the running.

My son is in the same boat; he let his FSD lapse and just resubscribed while holding off the 2024 software version. We don't know if that strategy will work. All we know is that there's a chance.

If and when it happens, the uninstalled download will disappear and be replaced by a lower numbered download on the advanced FSDb track. That's exactly what happened for him the first time he subscribed last year. But again, once fully installed there's no going back.

Understood that you're burning subscription money and experiencing frustration while hoping to be granted the download. You just have to decide what's important to you. You can cancel, install whatever you're being offered and wait for the truly wide v12 rollout. But remember even at that point, the wide version still may be lagging the latest advanced version. It's a moving target.

 

[zazim]

Thank goodness 2023.44.30.25 arrived today. So far so good! It handled DC traffic better than v 11 ever did. Yes it did try to run a red light but I admire its assertiveness.

 

[cyborgLIS]

Yes, the visualizations are rendered in the MCU.

Was thinking about this some more and realized there must be some connection between the visualization and FSDb, since at the very least the visualization displays the car's path planner and gives status messages about the car's decision making (e.g. "stopping for stop sign").

 

[MP3Mike]

since at the very least the visualization displays the car's path planner and gives status messages about the car's decision making (e.g. "stopping for stop sign").

As an FYI FSDb V12 no longer has those status messages.

 

[JulienW]

Was thinking about this some more and realized there must be some connection between the visualization and FSDb, since at the very least the visualization displays the car's path planner and gives status messages about the car's decision making (e.g. "stopping for stop sign").

The connection is one way. The FSD computer sends the MCU information and the MCU renders it. Path prediction (which is much more limited in v12) is just info sent from the FSD computer to the MCU and the same as cars (colors MIA v12), trash cans (MIA v12), red cones (MIA v12) or any other visualization.

 

[JulienW]

Just to add I suspect the MCU visualization rendering engine is not fully compatible with v12. This may be why we are missing so much stuff. If the case it will probably need a rewrite to add back all the missing parts but that is likely a low priority now.

Or it could be that v12 is not complete and just not sending all this info yet. Whatever the reason we are missing a LOT visualization info now.

 

[Knightshade]

The connection is one way. The FSD computer sends the MCU information and the MCU renders it. Path prediction (which is much more limited in v12) is just info sent from the FSD computer to the MCU and the same as cars (colors MIA v12), trash cans (MIA v12), red cones (MIA v12) or any other visualization.

I don't think that's entirely correct--- where do you think the planner gets stop sign data from for signs NOT picked up by vision? And the driving computer has been requesting map data for a while now that gets fed back to it...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760550824605024263

 

[cyborgLIS]

I suspect the loss of the status messages is due to the machine learning approach. Since there is no logic behind the computer's decision making anymore (it is just following patterns from driving examples), it cannot give meaning to what it is doing. Same for the highlighting of cars that it is controlling for in blue. Does anyone know if v12 is incorporating the perception component (the part that converts video data to environment and object mapping), or is it straight video in -> controls out? Surely there is a perception component because we have the visualizations, but I wonder if the decision making component uses that perception data or responds directly to the video feed.

The connection is one way. The FSD computer sends the MCU information and the MCU renders it. Path prediction (which is much more limited in v12) is just info sent from the FSD computer to the MCU and the same as cars (colors MIA v12), trash cans (MIA v12), red cones (MIA v12) or any other visualization.

In that case I'm not sure why the visualization would place objects differently than where the FSDb sees them. If you remember my original question was about traffic cones being placed incorrectly.