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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Um. @jebinc.

It's not unusual, to say the least, for you to dis the living $whatever out of each, every, and all FSD-b releases since Tesla first tried turning them on.

But I had the impression from previous relatively recent posts of yours that you had bought a non-Tesla car and was happily zooming all over the landscape in it. And, if memory serves, was More Than Happy with whatever that car manufacturer's version of TACC/LK/whatever was. And, in fact, came by here to gloat about how wonderful your new ride was.

So, since you're not driving a Tesla any more, or it's parked in long-term storage somewhere, why are you here badmouthing things? Just can't get out of the habit?
“Never let the facts ruin a good story,” right buddy?! The facts are I own two Teslas (2021 MSP, and a 2023 MY) and a Rivian R1T.

As for FSDj, I call it as I see it with every release (if and when they ever come out…) - as I own cars with this junk running on them (well, one of them). First amendment rights.

Have a Great Day!
 
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Um. @jebinc.

It's not unusual, to say the least, for you to dis the living $whatever out of each, every, and all FSD-b releases since Tesla first tried turning them on.

But I had the impression from previous relatively recent posts of yours that you had bought a non-Tesla car and was happily zooming all over the landscape in it. And, if memory serves, was More Than Happy with whatever that car manufacturer's version of TACC/LK/whatever was. And, in fact, came by here to gloat about how wonderful your new ride was.

So, since you're not driving a Tesla any more, or it's parked in long-term storage somewhere, why are you here badmouthing things? Just can't get out of the habit?
That’s an interesting take. @jebinc owns two Teslas.
 
At the top of the list for me is 'charge on solar' which will be very useful
Yeah that seems like a nice feature especially those with avoided-cost/wholesale rates for excess solar, but personally I would probably still want 11.4.7 sooner than Charge on Solar (even if we had a Powerwall to allow for it). Fortunately/unfortunately we have FSD Capability purchased anyway, so no unsubscribing, but hopefully Tesla will merge 11.4.x to the main production vehicle software 2023.26+ soon. In the mean time, I'm manually adjusting the charge rate on our vehicle to approximately match the solar power to avoid selling for 7¢/kWh and buying back at night for 8¢/kWh, and if I overestimate the production, it's only an extra 0.6¢/kWh.
 
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All right. I apologize.

It was the comment about How Wonderful the Rivian was. Had the impression that he ditched the Teslas. Guess not. Sorry, @jebinc; Go ahead, criticize away!
No worries. The Rivian is great. I drive it 3:1 to the Plaid. I traded a 2021 MYP for the Rivian and the wife drives the 2023 MYAWD. Never an issue with the Y’s or the 6/19 M3 (That I traded for the PoS Vibrating MS Plaid, with FSDj).
 
Yeah, not to mention I was in the original 10.2 beta group and was very supportive, until it turned into junk.
10.2 was nearly 2 years ago. Crazy...

V12 will be mind blowing, though, as Elon says.
But... V13 will be mind exploding.
But... V14 will be mind imploding, which is way crazier than exploding, and will come with a HW5 upgrade that will remove the wipers, just like HW4 removed the ultrasonic sensors.
And then V15 will be truly stunning, - really, truly stunning.
And if you think V15 is stunning, V16 will really rock your world.
Until V17, of course, which is when Tesla will add a front bumper camera to the Model S, in addition to the fact that HW5 without wipers will have been solved by the car only letting you drive it on really windy days so that any windshield condensation blows right off. As climate change accelerates, this is getting easier. Southern California will find that out imminently with Tropical Storm Hilary, and beta testing of HW5 sans wipers is taking place as we speak there.
 
think we have a bad leader over Tesla FSD?
or is it Elon's Asperger's brain that allows him to juggle 11.3, 11.4 and 12 all at the same time micromanaging the FSD teams?
or is it the total rewrite of v12 and lack of resources, holding on 11.3, 11.4.7 releases and then hold, all hands on deck for v12
v12 release in December, the holiday code we get annually (hopefully this catches up with Mercedes Drive Pilot

btw, why are there very few recent MB Drive Pilot video available to watch?
Best Out of Spec Review 7 months ago
 
Um. @jebinc.

It's not unusual, to say the least, for you to dis the living $whatever out of each, every, and all FSD-b releases since Tesla first tried turning them on.

But I had the impression from previous relatively recent posts of yours that you had bought a non-Tesla car and was happily zooming all over the landscape in it. And, if memory serves, was More Than Happy with whatever that car manufacturer's version of TACC/LK/whatever was. And, in fact, came by here to gloat about how wonderful your new ride was.

So, since you're not driving a Tesla any more, or it's parked in long-term storage somewhere, why are you here badmouthing things? Just can't get out of the habit?
I’m embarrassed for you.
 
Dropped FSD (beta) subscription - Why I did, and how the process played out.

I dropped my FSD subscription the day before the sub ended and as of midnight last night FSD was gone. I've been on beta since the first safety score group was granted access on 10/11/21, FSD Beta Version 10.2 (2021.32.25). I'm a 'glass half full' type and don't think beta is Junk or Perfect, it's just in a slow moving spot right now and I want some of the mainstream features (non FSD) available in the latest versions. At the top of the list for me is 'charge on solar' which will be very useful. I fully expect to resubscribe, probably by the end of the year, since as others have speculated the holiday release may merge the latest firmware with the latest beta (or wide release).

For those who are contemplating doing the same here's how it played out.

  • My sub ended at midnight last night
  • I did not get a notification from TeslaFi that a new version was available (which I always get)
  • Today about noon I went to settings>software and I immediately noticed that the 'looking for updates' message was thrashing longer than normal
  • It then said that I could download 2023.26.8 (the latest available as of now)
I've used beta for about 90% of my drives and will really miss it...temporarily.
Wait, are you saying that A) you got into beta with a SUBSCRIPTION FSDb only, and B) you’ve been on the “subscription” since that time, the entire tIme? Having paid, what ~ $4100 for the subscription all these months?

I didn’t even know FSDb subscriptions WERE a thing that far back, but also why wouldn’t one go in and out over time to minimize the cost/waste?
 
10.2 was nearly 2 years ago. Crazy...

V12 will be mind blowing, though, as Elon says.
But... V13 will be mind exploding.
But... V14 will be mind imploding, which is way crazier than exploding, and will come with a HW5 upgrade that will remove the wipers, just like HW4 removed the ultrasonic sensors.
And then V15 will be truly stunning, - really, truly stunning.
And if you think V15 is stunning, V16 will really rock your world.
Until V17, of course, which is when Tesla will add a front bumper camera to the Model S, in addition to the fact that HW5 without wipers will have been solved by the car only letting you drive it on really windy days so that any windshield condensation blows right off. As climate change accelerates, this is getting easier. Southern California will find that out imminently with Tropical Storm Hilary, and beta testing of HW5 sans wipers is taking place as we speak there.
V17 will also bring new cheapened hinges! 🤣
 
I have settled into a routine with 11.4.4 (which, given how long I have had it, I should have!):

I take over on any unprotected left turn where there is more than a couple of cars on the road (I live in a rural area).

I take over everywhere there is a stop sign on the road that does not have a stop sign indicated on the map.

I hit the accelerator on all flashing yellow lights since FSD wants to stop for some reason.

I do not let FSD drive in urban areas. If I lived in an urban area, FSD would have been a complete waste of money.

I pay close attention to the route FSD chooses. I drive the same way to work every day, but for some reason, FSD routes differently some days. This is important because if FSD takes a new route, it make make a new unprotected left when I do not expect it. With what I have seen, unprotected lefts == potential death at rural two lane highway speeds of 55 mph.

All freeway driving and light traffic rural road driving is wonderful. This constitutes more than 99% of my driving in the Tesla, so I am satisfied with FSDs performance thus far, although I feel like I am paying to be a guinea pig.

I will keep hoping for some stability in FSD. Unpredictability is both annoying and dangerous, and FSD seems to change overnight or day to day, even when there are no “official” code updates.

Joe