Ford Will Unveil Chevrolet Bolt Competitor This Year

[Krugerrand]

They've shown that making a second one in parallel is pretty much beyond what they are ready to do (Model X was announced for 2013 delivery, right? Yet lots of people here still parrot that Model 3 will ship in 2017... puhleaaase)

You know quite well the many reasons for the delay of Model X, not all of them related to 'parallel is pretty much beyond what they are ready to do'. You also know quite well that there's a steep learning curve in this complex industry and that Tesla is an infant in a century old industry, and has had to fight many battles (like the dealership network). And yet none of those century old OEMs made the Model S (or the soon to be released Model X) and none of them even had '200+ mile BEV' on their radar until Tesla said, 'This is what we're going to do, here is how we're going to do it, we'll even release our patents, we'll consider a partnership, et al... Indeed, the OEMs were laughing at Tesla.

We should cheer for Ford and GM and anyone else who is trying to push into this market.

*looking around the room* Nope, I don't see anyone not cheering for other OEMs to push into the market.

 

[dirkhh]

You know quite well the many reasons for the delay of Model X, not all of them related to 'parallel is pretty much beyond what they are ready to do'. You also know quite well that there's a steep learning curve in this complex industry and that Tesla is an infant in a century old industry, and has had to fight many battles (like the dealership network). And yet none of those century old OEMs made the Model S (or the soon to be released Model X) and none of them even had '200+ mile BEV' on their radar until Tesla said, 'This is what we're going to do, here is how we're going to do it, we'll even release our patents, we'll consider a partnership, et al... Indeed, the OEMs were laughing at Tesla.

Don't shoot the messenger. Regardless of the reasons offered, the fact is that they are once again two years behind schedule on the X and have absolutely nothing to show for on the 3. And no, a big hole in the ground for the gigafactory doesn't qualify as having shown progress on the 3.

*looking around the room* Nope, I don't see anyone not cheering for other OEMs to push into the market.

Actually, I see lots of people here laughing at the other offerings "but it's not 200 miles", " it's not a BEV from the ground up", "it has the wrong charging plug", etc

 

[Krugerrand]

Don't shoot the messenger. Regardless of the reasons offered, the fact is that they are once again two years behind schedule on the X and have absolutely nothing to show for on the 3. And no, a big hole in the ground for the gigafactory doesn't qualify as having shown progress on the 3.

Well, when the messenger delivers the wrong message or decides to only report part of the message...shooting becomes an option. There are lots of things that can be stated and made to sound good or bad depending on context. Simply saying Model X is delayed two years fails to see the whole picture (context) or the fact it hasn't really been that big of a deal, other than for a handful of people who put down reservations for it and 'needed' the vehicle by a certain time.

There is no 'big hole in the ground for the gigafactory'. There have been dozen of progress pictures on this forum for months, a number of articles on the Internet following the progress of it, as well as schedules of what's been done, how much has been spent and what's up next to be done. The CEO has also mentioned on more than one occasion that they are ahead of schedule with it. If what's been done is what you'd consider as not 'qualifying as having shown progress on the 3', then I don't know what to tell you other than you're out of touch with what's going on.

Actually, I see lots of people here laughing at the other offerings "but it's not 200 miles", " it's not a BEV from the ground up", "it has the wrong charging plug", etc

Those are all valid arguments considering all the proclamations that such is such is a 'Tesla Killer', an equally laughable statement. Somehow GM can put in print the exact BEV specs that Tesla announced years ago were their ultimate goal, ignore all that information because Tesla is going to fail, then when Tesla doesn't fail put together a Tesla Study Group, and throw together a metal box that doesn't work or contain those specs (like a 200+ mile battery) and suddenly GM gets credit for being able to do it. That's interesting.

Hey, I don't care one way or another what GM can or can not do with the Bolt, I'm not a buyer of it even if they can make it go 200+ miles on a single charge and comes with a free pony (and I love ponies). But I still don't see anyone in this room laughing at the prospects of other OEMs pushing into the BEV market. They may be laughing at other things, though.

 

[AnOutsider]

Don't shoot the messenger. Regardless of the reasons offered, the fact is that they are once again two years behind schedule on the X and have absolutely nothing to show for on the 3. And no, a big hole in the ground for the gigafactory doesn't qualify as having shown progress on the 3.

Agreed. The Gigafactory can at best be seen as them following through on intentions, but it would serve just as well for S and X production as well as their storage plans.

 

[dirkhh]

Well, when the messenger delivers the wrong message or decides to only report part of the message...shooting becomes an option. There are lots of things that can be stated and made to sound good or bad depending on context. Simply saying Model X is delayed two years fails to see the whole picture (context) or the fact it hasn't really been that big of a deal, other than for a handful of people who put down reservations for it and 'needed' the vehicle by a certain time.

not that big of a deal. Let's agree to disagree. And more than 1/6 of the reservations cancelled is more than "a handful of people".

There is no 'big hole in the ground for the gigafactory'. There have been dozen of progress pictures on this forum for months, a number of articles on the Internet following the progress of it, as well as schedules of what's been done, how much has been spent and what's up next to be done. The CEO has also mentioned on more than one occasion that they are ahead of schedule with it. If what's been done is what you'd consider as not 'qualifying as having shown progress on the 3', then I don't know what to tell you other than you're out of touch with what's going on.

Sorry I wasn't sufficiently deferential to Tesla here. They have no battery factory. They have a partial building. I happen to know a thing or two about building clean room facilities. Getting the building up is the trivial part - anyone can do that.

Those are all valid arguments considering all the proclamations that such is such is a 'Tesla Killer', an equally laughable statement. Somehow GM can put in print the exact BEV specs that Tesla announced years ago were their ultimate goal, ignore all that information because Tesla is going to fail, then when Tesla doesn't fail put together a Tesla Study Group, and throw together a metal box that doesn't work or contain those specs (like a 200+ mile battery) and suddenly GM gets credit for being able to do it. That's interesting.

Yes, because that's the whole point of why Tesla is doing this. To get others to copy them.

 

[ecarfan]

...a big hole in the ground for the gigafactory doesn't qualify as having shown progress on the 3.

Surely you realize the factually incorrect nature of that statement. You are exaggerating for effect, which does not reflect well on your position that Tesla is behind schedule on successor models to the S (which is obviously true, no need to distort reality).

 

[anticitizen13.7]

THAT
Tesla has shown that it can build one amazing car.

They've shown that making a second one in parallel is pretty much beyond what they are ready to do (Model X was announced for 2013 delivery, right? Yet lots of people here still parrot that Model 3 will ship in 2017... puhleaaase)

I've projected for years that Model 3 will be a 2018 product. However, I don't think the Model X delay is good evidence that Model 3 will be delayed, for the following reasons:

1) Model X was never part of Tesla's "Secret Plan". As a generation 2.5 vehicle, it's not necessary to the plan to get to Model 3, and Tesla therefore had no incentive to rush the project to completion.

2) Elon's statements and Tesla's filings indicate that engineering an SUV presented unique engineering challenges like Dual Motor, towing capacity, and yes, falcon wing doors. Getting good range in a heavier and less aerodynamic vehicle than the S is also a consideration.

3) If Model 3 is a smaller RWD sedan, there will likely be fewer design problems than the Model X. Designing and delivering the car in some quantity won't be the problem. Delivering and supporting the car in 300k/year volumes will be the problem.

In other words, I think Tesla can deliver Model 3 on time. What Tesla has to prove is that they can deliver in volumes 9-10x what they delivered in 2013-2014.

 

[mknox]

Yes, because that's the whole point of why Tesla is doing this. To get others to copy them.

Exactly. Now don't get me wrong... I am as big a fan of Tesla as anyone. I take it to shows and events, promote it and the brand through my electric utility industry contacts, and spend many hours talking to folks at malls and coffee shops. But the current awareness of the brand, while hugely positive, is one of a very expensive product that few can afford. Can Tesla get to the affordable car level? I surely believe so. Have they demonstrated to the unwashed masses that they can deliver the everyman's car? I do not believe they have... yet. And that's all I'm simply saying here.

 

[dirkhh]

Surely you realize the factually incorrect nature of that statement. You are exaggerating for effect, which does not reflect well on your position that Tesla is behind schedule on successor models to the S (which is obviously true, no need to distort reality).

From the point of view of building a battery factory all they have is a big whole in the ground. Woot, there are a couple of structures. That is not the hard part of building a clean room facility. Really.
But yes, you are right. Exaggeration for effect. Guilty as charged.

- - - Updated - - -

I've projected for years that Model 3 will be a 2018 product. However, I don't think the Model X delay is good evidence that Model 3 will be delayed, for the following reasons:

1) Model X was never part of Tesla's "Secret Plan". As a generation 2.5 vehicle, it's not necessary to the plan to get to Model 3, and Tesla therefore had no incentive to rush the project to completion.

2) Elon's statements and Tesla's filings indicate that engineering an SUV presented unique engineering challenges like Dual Motor, towing capacity, and yes, falcon wing doors. Getting good range in a heavier and less aerodynamic vehicle than the S is also a consideration.

3) If Model 3 is a smaller RWD sedan, there will likely be fewer design problems than the Model X. Designing and delivering the car in some quantity won't be the problem. Delivering and supporting the car in 300k/year volumes will be the problem.

In other words, I think Tesla can deliver Model 3 on time. What Tesla has to prove is that they can deliver in volumes 9-10x what they delivered in 2013-2014.

I would state that the Model X is closer to the Model S than the Model 3 will be. Same battery, same materials, same price point.
Model 3 needs a smaller battery, likely won't be able to be an aluminum body and needs to hit a price point of about 50% of where the Model S and the Model X are.
I'm reasonably certain that if I go back three years I will find plenty of posts here on the forum explaining how trivial it will be for Tesla to build the Model X.

- - - Updated - - -

Exactly. Now don't get me wrong... I am as big a fan of Tesla as anyone. I take it to shows and events, promote it and the brand through my electric utility industry contacts, and spend many hours talking to folks at malls and coffee shops. But the current awareness of the brand, while hugely positive, is one of a very expensive product that few can afford. Can Tesla get to the affordable car level? I surely believe so. Have they demonstrated to the unwashed masses that they can deliver the everyman's car? I do not believe they have... yet. And that's all I'm simply saying here.

And I am agreeing with you.
Apparently I'm doing a bad job of it

 

[FlasherZ]

Agreed. The Gigafactory can at best be seen as them following through on intentions, but it would serve just as well for S and X production as well as their storage plans.

I know this storyline has been peddled by a few others as well, but I have this nagging feeling that Tesla isn't in cars for the long haul.

Roadster -> Model S -> Model X - > Model 3 provide the proof of concept to build demand and trust in the energy approach. But I can't imagine that over the long haul Tesla will continue to compete with the resources that the giant automakers have. An exit from the car business (via sale of the unit, perhaps) would give them a wide-open field on the underlying energy technology that makes it work and its applicability beyond vehicles, home storage, etc.

(Then again, years ago Apple was supposed to be solely in the mobile device business, and the Mac would be dead... so what do I know? )

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I would state that the Model X is closer to the Model S than the Model 3 will be. Same battery, same materials, same price point.
Model 3 needs a smaller battery, likely won't be able to be an aluminum body and needs to hit a price point of about 50% of where the Model S and the Model X are.
I'm reasonably certain that if I go back three years I will find plenty of posts here on the forum explaining how trivial it will be for Tesla to build the Model X.

It's no longer clear that Model X uses the same battery as Model S, because Tesla deleted references to the 60/85 kWh battery options on the Model X sub-site a few months ago. A larger, less aerodynamic vehicle may well have required a different battery to achieve similar range. Tesla themselves admitted that engineering an SUV presented challenges that weren't present when engineering a sedan.

It's a good point that designing Model 3 within the constraints of a lower price point will be a challenge, but I see that as just as much of a supply chain issue as an engineering issue. With Model S, Tesla buys components in relatively low volume (compared to a mass market car like a USDM Honda Accord), which likely raises the price. Economies of scale will help lower Model 3 prices, IF Tesla can get the right supply chain in place.

I think it would have been relatively easy for Tesla to have created an X SUV if they'd made certain design choices. Had Tesla designed a wagon-like car based on Model S (analogous to Subaru Legacy and Subaru Outback, a sedan/wagon family), ditched the fancy doors, and forget about towing capacity and range, they could have made an X by 2013. However, that's not what Elon wanted, and Elon demanded perfection. There's another thread where someone in this forum actually criticized Elon for it and compared him to Axl Rose, who delayed an album so long that music tastes had changed by the time it was released.

 

[Yggdrasill]

From the point of view of building a battery factory all they have is a big whole in the ground. Woot, there are a couple of structures. That is not the hard part of building a clean room facility. Really.

There isn't much of a problem in building a clean room facility. Basically you just need a fairly air-tight structure, then you spend lots of money on a fancy air filtration system, and make sure to have airlocks where everyone entering the structure can put on lab coats, gloves, masks, etc. Not very difficult. The actual battery cell production equipment is Panasonics department - and I'm sure they know exactly what they need. I can't see that the construction of the Gigafactory has any particularly hard/risky phases.

I would state that the Model X is closer to the Model S than the Model 3 will be. Same battery, same materials, same price point.
Model 3 needs a smaller battery, likely won't be able to be an aluminum body and needs to hit a price point of about 50% of where the Model S and the Model X are.

Tesla has made the next gen motor/inverter, used for the FWD on the Model S and X, which we will probably see in the Model 3. That's one vital part right there that we know is real. The battery changes are fairly trivial. They'll probably just reconfigure the amount of modules, and adapt the modules to the new cell format. Beyond the motor/inverter and battery, what you need is the glider. This is the area where all car companies in the world has lots of experience, and Tesla has stolen a lot these people.

I'm reasonably certain that if I go back three years I will find plenty of posts here on the forum explaining how trivial it will be for Tesla to build the Model X.

I am 99% sure that the reason for the delays of the Model X hasn't been that it has been a particularly difficult undertaking. There just isn't any reason why Tesla should have prioritized the Model X over squeezing more margin out of the Model S. Tesla is limited by battery availability, and they will most likely continue to be limited by battery availability until the Gigafactory is up and running. Also, I'm one of those 1/6 cancellations - that doesn't mean I'm a lost sale. I don't fault Tesla at all for the delays - they have to make the right strategic decisions for the long term.

 

[SmartElectric]

THUD!

Ford To Focus On Performance, Not Electric Drive Technology

Ford is not in the EV business. As I stated earlier, I traded in the last Ford I will ever purchase for an EV. My next car is a Tesla.

 

[miimura]

Regardless of the reasons offered, the fact is that they are once again two years behind schedule on the X and have absolutely nothing to show for on the 3.

The Model X delays are another case of poor communication by Tesla. IMHO, Model X is late because it it didn't HAVE TO BE on time. Sales of Model S have been so robust that they did not need Model X to increase total demand. If they had started selling Model X last year, every one of them would have come at the expense of a Model S that could not be produced. I sincerely believe that Tesla was unable to convince Panasonic to ramp up production any faster than they have and even convincing them that the Gigafactory could be properly utilized was difficult too.

My point is that Tesla should have come out and clearly stated that they were not going to follow the original schedule for Model X because Model S was doing so well.

 

[mknox]

THUD!

Yeah, that sucks. The article postulates that the Bolt Competitor might end up only as a compliance car.

 

[ecarfan]

THUD!

Ford To Focus On Performance, Not Electric Drive Technology

This part of that article stunned me, quote:
"It’s unfortunate that Ford doesn’t pair performance with electrification. And there’s no way Ford can present a valid argument suggesting the performance and electrification don’t go hand in hand. Ask Porsche, or McLaren. Or BMW. Performance these days requires electrification, so hopefully Ford will grasp onto this before it’s too late."
-------------
Shocking that the writer did not mention the Tesla Model S P85D.

 

[Krugerrand]

not that big of a deal. Let's agree to disagree. And more than 1/6 of the reservations cancelled is more than "a handful of people".

Non-issue. Model X will be sold out for at least this year and the next.

Sorry I wasn't sufficiently deferential to Tesla here. They have no battery factory. They have a partial building. I happen to know a thing or two about building clean room facilities. Getting the building up is the trivial part - anyone can do that.

You understate the complexity, but thanks for at least acknowledging there's more than a 'big hole in the ground'.

Yes, because that's the whole point of why Tesla is doing this. To get others to copy them.

Nobody has copied yet. That's the point. Intent to copy isn't copying, but then you know that.

 

[vinnie97]

Well, ecarfan and especially EarlyAdopter, I hope you're right about Tesla being able to achieve those lofty goals from 2006 (and beyond). If these vehicles can truly give serviceable life for a decade, it also opens up other loan vehicles, which I would seriously consider on an S or even a hypothetical 3.

 

[DrGuest]

Here is the original "Automobile" article.

http://www.automobilemag.com/features/news/1503-ford-will-unveil-chevrolet-bolt-competitor-this-year/

The last words in this article are, " Ford's official word is that the story is not accurate."

 

[dirkhh]

Nobody has copied yet. That's the point. Intent to copy isn't copying, but then you know that.

Now we are in full agreement. No one has copied them. No one has even shown serious intent to actually copy them. But I'm still happy whenever I see someone at least attempting to stretch their comfort zone into the direction where Tesla already is... And what I remember from reading the early interviews with Elon it seems that he was talking about setting the goal posts, hoping that the traditional manufacturers would start by splitting the difference - I was trying to find the actual quote that I seem to remember but my Google foo has failed me on this one...