Hi. Here is the latest update after listening to the conference call:
They are about 9K units short of 200K at the end of 2017. So yes, Q4 2017 looks unlikely unless Model S and X sales increase and Model 3 ramp-up happens quicker than expected.
Interestingly both of these things could happen. Elon was very confident about Model 3 production ramp up. Also, during the conference call, Tesla confirmed they are receiving more Model S and X orders than expected since the Model 3 delivery event on 28 July and this was a surprise to them.
However, I don't think MS/MX can close the 9000 gap alone without an impressive Model 3 production ramp up. Therefore I have changed the percentages to 65/35% likely. I will update again after Q3 sales numbers are released in a month.
Optimistic Scenario (65% likely)
- $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
- $1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
Pessimistic Scenario (35% likely)
- $7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
- $1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
In the future, for the latest info on this issue, you can open
THIS page and scroll all the way to the right. If you want to read the rules, open
THIS page, scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section.
If you want to learn more about other incentives, including incentives only available in your country or state, open the incentives page on the Tesla website
HERE, scroll down and make sure the country selection is correct.