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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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Maybe it's time to get Ms. Vestagers involved!? Wrong authority I know...:)


***duck and run from all the Apple fans and investors****

Wait, I'm typing this on an IPad, I'm invested in AAPL ...

I'll just go flog myself in the corner for suggesting that...:mad:
 
@Troy: thanks for the Dislike of my post.
I dislike the pricing situation of France versus the rest of the Euro-countries as well.

I mean, honestly, can you think of one good reason why someone in Belgium should be paying almost 9K Euro more even after factoring in the French government incentive? I can't wrap my head round it. What's special about the French version of Model S - is it missing the interior? Some doors? Come on, what is that almost 9K Euro difference justified/justifiable by?

If I was about to buy a P100D here in Germany, I would definitely ask my local store staff about this. It's a valid question after all.
Yeah I find this very strange, especially since Tesla has earlier said that the base price should be about the same in every country? Smaller differences upto about a 1000€ makes sense since the cost of selling a car is slightly different in different European countries but this big a difference??

Cobos
 
A few countries already reported so we have some official numbers :

Norway : 170 Model S (up from 156 last quarter, down from 220 last year), 168 Model X

the Netherlands : 129 Model S (up from 30 last quarter, down from 131 last year), 25 Model X

Sweden : 49 Model S (up from 24 last quarter, down from 100 last year), 9 Model X

Austria : 53 cars. (up from 15 last quarter and 33 last year). Anyone have any color on the distribution X versus S in Austria? Is 43/10 reasonable?

Finland : 4 cars (down from 6 last quarter and 11 last year). Again no indication on the distribution X versus S. Is it reasonable to take these 4 all as Model S?

Generally August shapes up to be a much better month than May or July, even just on the Model S's. I am estimating between 700 and 1200 Model S's and 300 Model X's. That means we won't beat last year's August on the Model S alone but we will when combining both models.
 
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We are currently at 800 something reported. No Model X deliveries are expected in Europe's largest market lately (UK) so that eliminates one source of a potential upside, really leaving only Switzerland as a potential surprise. So 1200 if CH doesn't deliver, otherwise up to 1400. That puts the full quarter to date to 1800. Assuming September at least doubles that once more we could potentially look at 4000 to 5000 deliveries for the full Q3. No refunds if I am wrong.
 
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We are currently at 800 something reported. No Model X deliveries are expected in Europe's largest market lately (UK) so that eliminates one source of a potential upside, really leaving only Switzerland as a potential surprise. So 1200 if CH doesn't deliver, otherwise up to 1400. That puts the full quarter to date to 1800. Assuming September at least doubles that once more we could potentially look at 4000 to 5000 deliveries for the full Q3. No refunds if I am wrong.
Thanks. Do we have any estimates for Asia pacific?
 
Nothing to prevent you from buying a Tesla in France, is there?

Actually that is something I would ask Tesla store personnel when the situation arises with Model 3.
I have read quite a few articles about a new trend of people from Germany (especially in the regions bordering on France) buying BEVs at bargain basement prices because of the French subsidies.
Works like this: French dealer sells the car to a French middleman who then keeps it for half a year. After that the middleman sells the car to the German customer and can still keep his incentive money - and use the same scheme again and again on more vehicles. Strange that the French government hasn't closed this loophole.
 
Hi, everybody. The UK Q2 2016 numbers were published today on gov.uk website HERE and they are a little lower than expected. My estimate was 652 units for Q2. It turned out to be 501 units. To summarize:

2016 UK Deliveries:
Q1 2016 = 762 (It was 205 last year. Increased 272%)
Q2 2016 = 501 (It was 144 last year. Increased 248%)
1H 2016 = 1263 (It was 349 last year. Increased 262%)

AcGdUJk.gif
 
Excellent, that still makes the UK the strongest European market in the EU for the first half of 2016. There's clearly a lot of demand for Tesla, it's just that the ramp happened a little later than elsewhere due to the particularities of the UK car market. Still looking for a little over 200 cars for this month with Italy and Switzerland remaining to make it to my lower estimated bound of 1200. That's perfectly doable.

Meanwhile, Norway has delivered it's first boatload of cars for September : 75 Model X and 28 Model S. While the X number is encouraging, the S is disappointing. Hopefully they'll receive another 2-3 ships to also bring up the S deliveries for the month to a strong showing.

One thing we should however be aware of : the numbers we count also include inventory and therefore do not directly translate to deliveries. For example, out of last month's 170 Model S registrations in Norway, at least 25 are inventory cars. It's pretty easy to spot if you look at the detailed registrations. For comparison : this month (so far) and July do not show Norwegian inventory cars being registered, while June had quite a few of them once more.
 
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Excellent, that still makes the UK the strongest European market in the EU for the first half of 2016. There's clearly a lot of demand for Tesla, it's just that the ramp happened a little later than elsewhere due to the particularities of the UK car market. Still looking for a little over 200 cars for this month with Italy and Switzerland remaining to make it to my lower estimated bound of 1200. That's perfectly doable.

Meanwhile, Norway has delivered it's first boatload of cars for September : 75 Model X and 28 Model S. While the X number is encouraging, the S is disappointing. Hopefully they'll receive another 2-3 ships to also bring up the S deliveries for the month to a strong showing.

One thing we should however be aware of : the numbers we count also include inventory and therefore do not directly translate to deliveries. For example, out of last month's 170 Model S registrations in Norway, at least 25 are inventory cars. It's pretty easy to spot if you look at the detailed registrations. For comparison : this month (so far) and July do not show Norwegian inventory cars being registered, while June had quite a few of them once more.

91 Model X and 37 Model S, as we speak. I expect my own Model X to be delivered in the second half of the month.
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
 
Switzerland delivered 89 Model S in August, up 59 from last quarter but down from 155 last year. There were also 39 Model X deliveries.

We are still waiting for Italy, but it's not a traditionally important market. Totals will be very close to 850 Model S (up from 529 last quarter, down from 1097 last year) and 300 Model X.
 
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Switzerland delivered 89 Model S in August, up 59 from last quarter but down from 155 last year. There were also 39 Model X deliveries.

We are still waiting for Italy, but it's not a traditionally important market. Totals will be very close to 850 Model S (up from 529 last quarter, down from 1097 last year) and 300 Model X.

Are Europe delivery totals down for Q3 versus Q3-2015 even including Model X? Have you discovered where the 5150 cars in transit went? I have to assume that the number included inventory/demo/loaner cars being placed to replace old sales of the prior loaners. We did see a large number of MS and MX inventory show up in July and August both in USA and Europe.

Norway so far in Sept is 107 MX and 39 MS. This is "ok" and shows deliveries of MX but not enough to showcase details of where 5150 were sent.
 
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