EU Market Situation and Outlook

[ev-enthusiast]

I had no trouble understanding your post - thanks for the concise summary.

Same here, looks like foreign speakers understand foreign English better than native speakers
Thank's for the great summary.

BTW crazy move by the H2/crude lobby, really scary. I am sure there is more dirty things to come when they need to fight even harder

 

[Quant]

Sorry, I was in a rush when I posted. Any specific points I can clear up? The problem is, that the situation is a bit complex. Sorry for that. The tax on new cars is not straight-up 180% but depends on a number of factors. Until today, BEVs were exempted from this tax entirely. In 2020 all BEVs will need to pay the full amount - up to the mythical 180% - whatever the amount is. So over the coming 5 years, every year 20% more of that "whatever the amount is" is due until we reach "100% of the up to 180%"

Thanks! And me too, no trouble understanding your post !

 

[Auzie]

...................

This will still make the Model S significantly more expensive as of next year.

So it still made sense to import used cars from all over Europe and it still made sense to buy a Tesla this year. It is just a relief of taxes on the 85D and above.

Thanks Sebastian your post carifies the recent changes to the coming taxation changes.

Julian's post further explains these taxes applicable to new cars by providing comprehensive political context, thanks Julian

....................

The Danish Government has announced a political agreement on extending the present tax exemption of FCEV’s for an additional three years throughout 2018. In addition the Government will gradually introduce taxes on BEV’s based on vehicle efficiency and price, thus mainly taxing high-end BEV’s with long driving range. The Danish tax regime pioneers a relevant political targeting of battery and fuel cell technologies to address different vehicle market segments.

In Denmark up to 180% registration tax and 25% VAT is normally applied on the base vehicle price meaning that a €17.000 gasoline vehicle reaches a total consumer price of more than €50.000. The FCEV tax exemption therefore provides a substantial indirect price-subsidy that makes the technology almost price competitive with gasoline today in Denmark.

..............................................

The way I understand all of these, Danish people import all cars (corrections?), hence as per Julian's post, all cars are/will be exorbitantly expensive in Denmark except FCEV cars, which get extended relief.

No wonder bike adoption is so high in Denmark.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There seems to be an interesting similarity in the cadence of Model S deliveries in Q1 in Norway and Q4 in Denmark. The reason I picked Q1 for the Norway is that deliveries were very heavily back-loaded within the quarter, with Norway being #1 market in Europe in Q1. Similarly, Q4 deliveries are heavily back-loaded, and Denmark shapes to be #1 market for Tesla in Europe during the Q4.

As seen from the table below the ratio of cars delivered in February to March in Norway is very close to the ratio of cars delivered in November to October in Denmark. Assuming there will be also similar ratio of Mar/Feb in Norway and Dec/Nov in Denmark yields 1864 cars delivered in Dec, with the total of 2502 in Q4 in Denmark.

It would be interesting to see if the ratios will turn out to be similar indeed...

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Q1		Oct	Nov	Dec	Q4	Ratios
Norway	71	321	1140	1532						Feb/Jan=4.52; Mar/Feb=3.55
Denmark						113	525	1864	2502	Nov/Oct=4.65; Dec/Nov=3.55

 

[hobbes]

Troy got an interesting link from another user here, forget his name - anyway, the site seems to have all cars registered in Denmark with all the info - model, colors, city, even license plate and VIN: Nrpla.de - Find nummerplade uden alle tegn - Avanceret bilsøgning

There is already a plot including Dec with a count of 433 - but this has never changed for the last few days. So not sure how up to date it is. Otherwise, I agree that Denmark will top all other European countries and also will climb to #2 over 2015 total. But 1800? Would be cool, but if I should guess I would go for 1200. I guess there will be an update from MrBarcardi later today, then we will know more as to who will be #1.

 

[vgrinshpun]

1800 deliveries in Denmark is optimistic speculation to be sure, however if we are to believe that Tesla will deliver 17,000 cars in Q4, where all these deliveries will come from? After all, Tesla seem to be saying (to Credit Suisse) that they are on track to meet the guidance.

If we are to assume Q4 US/EU+/Asia deliveries split of 55/35/10%, then US could see 9350 deliveries, EU+ - 5950, and Asia - 1700. Given that EU+ Q4 deliveries are at 2500 in October and November, there need to be 3450 deliveries in December. Even with assumed 1800 Danish deliveries in December, there need to be 3450-1800=1650 European deliveries excluding Denmark. Given that all European deliveries in November excluding Denmark, were 929 cars, there would be a required 77% increase in all European deliveries with the exclusion of Denmark in December.

If we are to believe that Tesla meets their Q4 guidance and try estimating how it can be done, it is becoming clear that without some drastic across the board delivery increases in December, meeting guidance is just not possible.

 

[Quant]

Or, for 4 Q it could be a 60-30-10 split. Looking at 1Q 2015 for Europe, this is doable with about 1,350 cars delivered in Denmark in Dec.

As for NA, this would imply at least 10,500 for NA in 4 Q ( and about 10.3 K being Model S ) vs about 6000 for NA in 3 Q. Maybe that's why they prioritized NA so much in late NOV and DEC. What we don't know is total NA demand and demand stimulation response and of course , we don't know the true ramp up in production capacity ( other than guidance ) in Freemont and how the lines were optimized given known delays in ramp up of Model X production in Oct and Nov.

There's just a heck of a lot, we on the outside, don't know this quarter, because it's very, very different from the rest of 2015.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think that 60-30-10 split is unlikely as it would require 10,500-3,200-1,900=5,400 NA deliveries in December (see InsideEv Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard). Given Tesla's indication to Credit Suisse that current production rate is 1200 car/week this would require that all 100% of the production capacity be dedicated to NA for 4.5 weeks straight, which IMO is an unlikely scenario. With the assumed split of 55-35-10, the required December NA deliveries would be 17,000x.55-1,900-3,200=4,250. This could be achieved on average with about 88% of the production being allocated for building NA cars for 4 weeks.

The 55-35-10 split is the latest we heard from Tesla, in the beginning of this year, if I recall correctly.


Regarding the prioritization of NA, the reason is that Tesla guided to deliver in Q4 about 2,000 cars more than to be produced. This is not possible without working for NA deliveries almost exclusively mid-November through mid-December.

----Update-----

I think that main takeaway from this kind-of-joggling-of-numbers speculation is that in case Tesla meets the guidance, as they seem to have indicated to Credit Suisse, there will be seriously eye-popping record deliveries in December in both NA and Europe.

 

[hobbes]

Norway has 227 registrations in December as of today: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
So the win for Denmark seems quite certain.

- - - Updated - - -

I think one 'dark horse' may be Great Britain. According to the british forum thread I posted earlier here, it seems possible (if the data is correct and I read the plot correctly) they will deliver something like 600+ cars there in Q4 up from 321 last quarter (with a very strong end of quarter push - note the almost flat line for delivery estimates):

UK Model S Build and Delivery Dates (was: How Many UK Model S) | Speak EV - Electric Car Forums

 

[RobStark]

Didn't Tesla guide to deliver 2k more vehicles than they produce? Thereby emptying the supply chain and test drive stock ? Maybe in preparation of an upgrade/refresh?

 

[SebastianR]

This example of political corruption brought to you by the Oil, Industrial Gas and ICE Auto industry. Collectively, the Fuel Cell Lobby

I'm not too concerned about that legislation right now. At least not for DK. If you search on http://nrpla.de/soeg for hydrogen ("brint") and currently registered cars ("Registreret") you come to a total of 54 cars for all of DK today while there are more than 9500 electric cars in DK.

Jacob Krogsgaard, CEO of H2 Logic states:

“H2 Logic welcomes the continued Danish tax exemption for FCEV’s. This will ensure Denmark as one of the countries in the world with the best FCEV incentives. For H2 Logic the hydrogen fueling station network in Denmark will continue to be a strong showcase and platform for export of our technology to other countries. The pioneering Danish tax differentiation between BEV’s and FCEV’s will also incentivize that the technologies are targeted for their relevant vehicle market segments.”

I think this is the only relevant part: I don't know anybody who is realistically thinking that DK will have a significant amount of FCVs in the coming years. But there is a Danish company that makes Hydrogen Stations and wants to continue to sell them. In short, I believe this is more marketing for a small Danish company than a serious political move (let's also not forget that one key element in abolishing the tax advantage for EVs was pure jealousy: people in Denmark hate "rich people get things for free" and the Tesla is seen as a "rich person's car". So the moment there will be any uptick in FCV registrations, that rebate will be gone. And FCVs are at least at Tesla levels of cost so I'm not at all worried. And no, I'm not interested in discussing the political culture of DK/why Tesla is a "rich man's car" etc. further ;-) )

- - - Updated - - -

Didn't Tesla guide to deliver 2k more vehicles than they produce? Thereby emptying the supply chain and test drive stock ? Maybe in preparation of an upgrade/refresh?

I think that makes a lot of sense (also the wait times for the Model S):
Step 1: Deliver everything to meet guidance
Step 2: Focus on the production of the Model X - and thus create a "gap in delivery times"
Step 3: Introduce a (moderately) refreshed/facelifted Model S - the "gap" means there is less of a "if only I took delivery 1 day later" sentiment

 

[blakegallagher]

Didn't Tesla guide to deliver 2k more vehicles than they produce? Thereby emptying the supply chain and test drive stock ? Maybe in preparation of an upgrade/refresh?

I love this line of thought, makes great sense! *speculation* all cars sold after 1/1/2016 will come with rocket boosters!

 

[Auzie]

Didn't Tesla guide to deliver 2k more vehicles than they produce? Thereby emptying the supply chain and test drive stock ? Maybe in preparation of an upgrade/refresh?

I agree with you. There is only the upside in emptying the pipeline and selling inventory at the end of the year. At least, I fail to see the downside. Therefore such strategy makes sense, without the need to speculate on upgrade/refresh.

Update: downside is lower margins. Speedy sales likely come with a discount.

 

[Quant]

I love this line of thought, makes great sense! *speculation* all cars sold after 1/1/2016 will come with rocket boosters!

Well, it will just feel that way .....cause of what y'all smoke down there in South Texas !

 

[hobbes]

The count on Nrpla.de - Find nummerplade uden alle tegn - Avanceret bilsøgning for Denmark in Dec jumped to 959.

 

[SebastianR]

The count on Nrpla.de - Find nummerplade uden alle tegn - Avanceret bilsøgning for Denmark in Dec jumped to 969.

That's really amazing! (even if the actual number is 959 - but 10 difference doesn't count). Given this, I guess it is possible to achieve a 1200 to 1400 cars delivered for DEC by the end of the year.

 

[vgrinshpun]

If the record months in Norway any indication, the deliveries toward the end of month will be accelerating, not progressing along the straight line. So I think that 1800+ delivered in Q4 is possible. :smile:

 

[SebastianR]

If the record months in Norway any indication, the deliveries toward the end of month will be accelerating, not progressing along the straight line. So I think that 1800+ delivered in Q4 is possible. :smile:

According to the site, it includes registration data up until and including 19-DEC-2015. So the data is quite current. I assume that we can ignore the 24th (most likely) and the 25th/26th (nothing is open in DK the 25th/26th) and I wouldn't count on too much happening un the 31st. I would LOVE to see 1800+ but given the current numbers and given the holidays, I very very much doubt it. And I certainly wouldn't trade any TSLA on the belief that 1800 is feasible. But then again, YMMV

 

[hobbes]

312 registrations in Norway this month as of 12/26, according to MrBacardi.
For comparison, Oct was 198 and Nov 225.

 

[Cattledog]

So if I'm reading the chart correctly, Denmark went from just under 700 deliveries in 2014 to just over 2,600 in 2015 to date, of which about 1600 have come in the last quarter (all rough because it's unclear if data points are end of month or another date). Impressive.