EU Market Situation and Outlook

[mmd]

Tesla would not pay for 2500 registrations without running it by a lawyer. That is also 5% of 2015 production. A big deal.
Does not seem likely to me.

The minister says, it is illegal to hoard cars for resale later. But Tesla head in Denmark seems to say, they are registering plates years in advance. We will know by end of Q4 how this evolves.

"However, according to communications manager for Tesla Nordic, Esben Pedersen, it is because a mixture of rising sales in Denmark in the past month - and simple practice.

- What I have been aware of is that there has been someone in our headquarters, sitting and ordering number plates for all markets. He orders them years ahead in all markets, because it is an effective way to do it.

According Esben Pedersen has this person was recorded, that the sale of Teslaer has increased since the tax increase was announced.

-It Is, realistically, we will within the next year are going to sell 2,500 cars. The person has so ordered plates for these vehicles."

 

[Cobos]

In Norway all car dealers get batches of number plates. So they sell cars with running numbers i.e. EL12345, EL12346 etc. Then they connect the VIN to the number plate as they process the sale directly in the DMVs system.

Cobos

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yes, you need at least the VIN to register the car, and I would think the same is true in Denmark. I don't know if they have VINs a year in advance.

 

[mmd]

So, as soon as Tesla assigns VIN to a car, which could be as early as order confirmation for built-to-order cars, Tesla can apply for tax free registration in Denmark. And then, it could be 2-3 months to deliver, even in 2016. But the car will still enjoy the 2015 registration rate. Does this sound right?

It's also possible that something is lost in Google translation, or the Denmark Tesla spokesperson doesn't know all the details. Applying for registration years in advance when registration fee is climbing so fast year over year would defeat the purpose of the fee raise. EV manufacturers could reserve VINs for Denmark for many years, and apply for plates now in droves. Surprised, that the Danish government didn't quite consider this situation

(Edited: Found some link with good information on Danish car registration process.
Buying & Selling a Car in Denmark - AngloINFO Copenhagen, in Metropolitan Copenhagen (Denmark) )

Registering a new vehicle in Denmark

In Denmark the registration of vehicles is managed by the Central Register for Motor Vehicles (Centralregisteret for Motorkøretøjer). This is a single register for the whole country and is managed by the customs and tax administration (SKAT).

Once a vehicle is registered in the Central Register for Motor Vehicles the vehicle is assigned a registration number and a registration certificate is issued. Vehicles can only be registered in the Central Register for Motor Vehicles if the vehicle has liability insurance.
Anyone purchasing a new vehicle for use in Denmark is liable for registration tax. This tax is paid on all newly registered vehicles, including motorcycles, taxis and buses weighing up to four tonnes. Registration tax is calculated at approximately 60 to 63 percent of the price of the vehicle and is payable once in the lifetime of the vehicle only. It is not necessary to pay registration tax again if the owner changes. Registration tax must be paid at the local motor vehicle office. Once the tax has been paid, number plates are issued.

 

[WarpedOne]

Surprised, that the Danish government didn't quite consider this situation :smile:

Surprised?
Surprised an X government didn't consider some situation?
Really?
Surprised?
Government is by definition the worst planner conceivable. And they always do even worse when planning tax raises. Always and everywhere.

 

[hobbes]

So, as soon as Tesla assigns VIN to a car, which could be as early as order confirmation for built-to-order cars, Tesla can apply for tax free registration in Denmark. And then, it could be 2-3 months to deliver, even in 2016. But the car will still enjoy the 2015 registration rate. Does this sound right?

Yeah. After thinking about it for a while, that´s my take on the situation (educated guesses):

- Tesla is NOT building cars to hoard and sell later which are not designed specifically for a customer (would be totally out of line with what they usually do) - only built-to-order

- Demand has drastically increased due to tax increase next year, they´ll be trying to deliver as much as possible this year

- They most likely start the registration process when they assign VINs or some other fixed point in the production process to make sure no time is wasted before delivery when the car arrives at its destination (especially in this situation with likely end-of-quarter rush

- Registering cars years ahead of actual production doesn´t make much sense to me; I guess the statement to that end is supposed to disguise the jump in registrations in the next months (pure speculation)

From my point of view that is the first time we got an (untentional) pre-announcement of registrations by an official authority ! Only not quite clear for what timeframe. And there will be some free press for Tesla, now and when masses of Model S are delivered - *might* be like the best months in Norway.

 

[Benz]

In The Netherlands some cars that have arrived at a VW-dealership in December do get a license-plate and are registered that same year, though the sale happens in the new year. That's what I have heard.

 

[SebastianR]

My take on this one (and I'm not a lawyer) is:

- Tesla sold a ton of cars in DK. A friend of mine picked up the car and the DS said they sold approx. 2000 cars in one day (after the changes were announced).

- You can't get the license plate / tax situation done without an actual car.

- There was a statement to TV2 that said: "Our license plate orders are made centrally. [...] . A license plate does not represent a sale of a car before it is put on a car. The order of 2,500 license plates have not taken into account the possible changes in car taxes, but merely reflects an optimistic forecast of sales going forward".

So with all this together, I assume that Tesla just tries to delivery however many cars the humanly can deliver before the year end. And as a shareholder, I'm quite happy that they make sure that "having a plate or not" will hopefully not be the limiting factor for Tesla sales in Q4.

Of course, the news of "hoarding license plates" (what ever that should accomplish?!?) is better for the news cycle than "record sales for Tesla in Q4"

 

[hobbes]

- Tesla sold a ton of cars in DK. A friend of mine picked up the car and the DS said they sold approx. 2000 cars in one day (after the changes were announced).

Wow. The plot thickens... "Sold" meaning ordered? Can you put an approximate time tag on that? Would it be in line with a Nov/Dec delivery?

Of course, the news of "hoarding license plates" (what ever that should accomplish?!?) is better for the news cycle than "record sales for Tesla in Q4"

Not sure what you mean by that - better for people who don´t want good news for Tesla/good for a big headline I guess?

 

[SebastianR]

Wow. The plot thickens... "Sold" meaning ordered? Can you put an approximate time tag on that? Would it be in line with a Nov/Dec delivery?

Yep. That was around the day the changes were announced (Friday 9th of October) - I heard that the Monday after was really crazy for Tesla.

On the meaning of "sold" I heard two versions: the one - as I mentioned - from the friend talked of "sold" = ordered by customers, the other version of the story is that, Tesla "pre-ordered" a number of typical configurations in Freemont and "sold" (=assigned?) them to customers afterwards.

It could well be a combination of both. However, I did notice a jump from "December" to "January" delivery times on October 10th for built to order vehicles, which indicates to me that all available cars until the end of December for DK were entered into the system to maximize the numbers available for the Danish market.

As I wrote earlier, my assumption was/is that Tesla deliveries for Q4 is only limited by the number of vehicles they can import/register until the 31st of December. For a while after, on the Teslamotors.com, there was a note indicating to contact a Tesla store if you wanted a Tesla in 2015. This note is gone now, so I guess that 2015 is fully sold out. So I assume that the 2000 cars may well have happened in one day.

Not sure what you mean by that - better for people who don´t want good news for Tesla/good for a big headline I guess?

Good for news media to generate clicks / controversy. Not good for Tesla.

Edit: Just to add, I believe what Tesla is saying here is: we play by the rules. However, the change in rules made our sales surge. We order plates to satisfy the sales surge, not because we want to "hamster" plates - or - "register plates in our name and then resell the vehicle during the course of next year". Then again, I could be totally wrong here.

 

[schonelucht]

- Tesla sold a ton of cars in DK. A friend of mine picked up the car and the DS said they sold approx. 2000 cars in one day (after the changes were announced).

Just wow. Explains why Denmark for a little while was the only country with delivery dates in 2016. Probably totally overwhelms the local organisation. I am already looking forward to the delivery numbers of November and December. It's a very nice coincidence for Tesla that they'll be able to fill the gap left from missing X production with this (unfortunately) temporary surge.

 

[SebastianR]

Just wow. Explains why Denmark for a little while was the only country with delivery dates in 2016. Probably totally overwhelms the local organisation. I am already looking forward to the delivery numbers of November and December. It's a very nice coincidence for Tesla that they'll be able to fill the gap left from missing X production with this (unfortunately) temporary surge.

Yep, indeed wow. And surely overwhelms the local organisation that now shouldn't really be ramped-up due to expected decline next year. Anyways, my hope is, that the Model S continues on an okish level (all versions except the higher speced P85D) since a) the increase is not immediately to the full amount and b) people will have more exposure to Tesla's.

EDIT: Thanks for the reputation points whoever send them! Much appreciated!

 

[Yggdrasill]

Edit: Just to add, I believe what Tesla is saying here is: we play by the rules. However, the change in rules made our sales surge. We order plates to satisfy the sales surge, not because we want to "hamster" plates - or - "register plates in our name and then resell the vehicle during the course of next year". Then again, I could be totally wrong here.

Just a small comment. An acceptable translation of "å hamstre" is "to squirrel away". (Or hoard, stockpile, etc.)

 

[mmd]

Yep, indeed wow. And surely overwhelms the local organisation that now shouldn't really be ramped-up due to expected decline next year. Anyways, my hope is, that the Model S continues on an okish level (all versions except the higher speced P85D) since a) the increase is not immediately to the full amount and b) people will have more exposure to Tesla's.

Couldn't Tesla hire some temps for 3-4 months? Also, it seems Tesla could deliver these slowly , even in early 2016. Depends if Tesla needs a large bump in Q4 delivery from Denmark.

Call me skeptic, but I think many of these are being bought by private resellers. I mean, look at the price jump coming next year. Buying some of the high end Model S now could be more rewarding than holding on to my TSLA shares. There is no registration fee to be paid for private resale of these. Also, Tesla could sell some of the extra cars in its inventory registered this year at huge premiums next year. If it is legal, it would boost the margins handsomely
Google Translate

The phasing in of the registration duty means that, for example Tesla S P85D, which today costs 875,000 kroner next year will cost 1,522,400 kroner inclusive registration fee of 683,100 kroner. This is an increase of 81 percent, writes Ritzau.

 

[electracity]

Just a small comment. An acceptable translation of "å hamstre" is "to squirrel away". (Or hoard, stockpile, etc.)

A Hamster interior could have been a confused response by Tesla to vegans requesting non-leather interior.

 

[SebastianR]

Couldn't Tesla hire some temps for 3-4 months? Also, it seems Tesla could deliver these slowly , even in early 2016. Depends if Tesla needs a large bump in Q4 delivery from Denmark.

My understanding is, this would not work. If the car is registered in January, then the tax is applicable. In order to register you need to have a) insurance coverage and b) a car.

This is nothing to do with global Tesla needs, this is all about being able to sell a car now or not So I don't think any of this is driven by "global delivery demands".

Call me skeptic, but I think many of these are being bought by private resellers. I mean, look at the price jump coming next year. Buying some of the high end Model S now could be more rewarding than holding on to my TSLA shares. There is no registration fee to be paid for private resale of these.

That's my point exactly. What ever Tesla does internally (pre-order / pre-configure / build to order or whatever) - at the end of the day all of these are a) sales of brand new cars to b) actual buyers in c) this year.

Also, Tesla could sell some of the extra cars in its inventory registered this year at huge premiums next year. If it is legal, it would boost the margins handsomely
Google Translate

Nope, that wouldn't be legal (allegedly) but this is exactly what the government accused Tesla of doing. Apparently now the minister who claimed that Tesla is committing fraud backed down from his statement. Tesla can't buy the cars for "themselves" and then resell them to "other buyers" over the course of 2016. (Again, according to my understanding of the situation.)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Again a discussion about 5000EUR direct subsidies for EVs in Germany (link).
The German government will decide on the subsidies by the end of this year.

 

[hobbes]

Again a discussion about 5000EUR direct subsidies for EVs in Germany (link).
The German government will decide on the subsidies by the end of this year.

Great, thanks for posting. Hope they finally follow through with this. Especially like the idea of financing this via CO2-emissions dependent tax or tax on gas.

 

[hobbes]

Regarding the EU sales wiki: We (Troy and I) have made a change on how to submit new numbers: If you click the link that used to lead you to the editable version of the data table, it now points to a form where you can enter the data even more conveniently. Two advantages: 1) A change log entry is automatically generated. 2) We can make sure no bad data is put into the table as we moderate the submissions before they become public.

Thanks for everyones participation!

 

[hobbes]

65 Model S registered in Norway Nov 1-14: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
(Nov 1-7 was 24)