No I'm saying Elon hasn't failed in the past,
That track record of success does mean he will fail. To the extent that his track record says anything, it says success is more like than failure.
All you have is, your incomplete understanding of what he intends to do.
My incomplete understanding of what he intends to do, is that it will be a success and not just because of Eon's track record.
For starters he has slashed company overheads, the site is still running advertising is still there.
Give our incomplete understanding, we don't know if the reduction in expenses exceeds the reduction in revenue.
We don't really know who wants to work there or doesn't want to work there.
The don't really know the attitude of advertises and how permeant that attitude is.
We also don't know that if Elon needs to be less dumb to win the advertises back, what he will do about it.
What we don't know exceed what we know by a big margin. But Elon's track record is known.
I am not arguing that he WILL fail, all I am saying is chances look bleak, and you cannot rely on an argument that “ in the past he has been successful”. It is your argument, not mine.
My understanding of what he intends to do is incomplete. Obviously. I don’t believe Elon has a complete understanding of what he intends to do. At first he tried to ’appease’ the advertisers. Then he decided to go ‘thermonuclear’ on them. First he promised there won’t be layoffs. Then he laid off vast numbers. He made the blue check mark purchasable. Then he paused that.
Yeah, in the past he wasn’t as polarizing or arrogant. That was also a track record. Now he is. So, there is no guarantee. You have your rose colored glasses, and see possible success based purely on a hunch going by his past successes.
I have my skeptics glasses on, and say, Twitter, if it exists at all 3 years from now, will be either a WeChat wannabe or a Parler Wannabe. Not much more. Unless:
Elon walks back the free speech lies he bandies around.
Keeps costs very low at Twitter without compromising app integrity.
Bans people engaging any sort of hate speech, racism, and other nonsense.
Thats at a minimum. how many of those do you see as likely? Be honest!
If he achieves all that, and adds features such as payments, and other stuff, then, only then might Twitter actually become very successful.