This is bad news for Tesla as the word gets out that the model 3’s range isnt anywhere near its advertized range.
It's just physics. There is no secret that is going to get out.
I agree that there is no secret here - obviously it's just physics that you won't do as well in the cold. I do think that Tesla could do a better job of preparing owners for this. But it's certainly an odd first post on TMC, quoted above.
As for the notion that cars not hitting their range which is another way of talking about mileage relative to EPA numbers is any kind of news, well that's not news at all. If you've got a gas engine car that gets 25 miles per gallon overall when you include the warm-up cycle and then going at 75 to 80 on the highway you'll be lucky if you get 20 miles per gallon.
I understand what you're saying, and you're right than an ICE car driven at 80-85 will not hit the EPA numbers. Just like the Tesla. The exact scaling is driven by physics and the details of how efficient the particular ICE engine is vs. the load. Totally agree.
However, I think this analysis does ignore the very real, very significant fact that in winter time, the EV will be much worse than the ICE vehicle, because the ICE vehicle produces heat which is very nearly free. That cabin heat is the primary reason people get poor efficiency in winter with EVs. There are other reasons as well which may be common to ICE & EVs - obviously driving through thick snow and icy roads is going to hurt both types of vehicle. But when it's just cold with clear roads (which is most of the time for most people), the EV will do much worse vs. an ICE, relative to the stated EPA mileage. That's just the way it works. It's physics!
I'm not saying ICE vehicles won't do worse than their stated mileage in winter - in general they will. But the % hit will be nowhere near an EV % hit, when road conditions are good, and it's just cold. This obviously assumes you're warming the cabin in the EV, which I think is a reasonable assumption for this comparison.
No one complains that around town they might get 450 miles of range rather than the advertised 310.
Unless the person is an Uber or Lyft or Tesloop driver and puts all that mileage on the vehicle in one day in city driving, in the spring/fall when no HVAC is needed, this will never happen. Getting back to winter conditions, which I think is what the post above was most concerned about, there's no way you're going to get 450 miles of range out of a Tesla driving around town with the heat on in the winter. In addition, the parasitic losses of the Tesla are so high that a typical city driver (let's say they do 20 miles of city driving a day) will lose at least 45 miles of rated range due to parasitic losses over the approximately 15-day recharge interval. So getting 450 miles of real world range out of 310-45 = 270 rated miles in the winter seems highly improbable. I understand this analysis is not the same as
useful "range". Range really only matters if you're going to discharge the battery completely on a road trip in one relatively quick event. But most people coming from an ICE think about how far they can go between refuels. So it's inflating the EV argument a bit to say that somehow you're going to get 450 miles of range out of the battery. If you hypermile it, sure, but I guarantee that those hypermilers aren't running the heat.
Again, I agree with the overall argument that it's largely silly to be
upset by EV range in the winter time (everyone
should know it isn't going to be great). But I think we have to be careful to not do the same thing as Tesla and not mention the issue, or paint a rosy picture of the thing, or deny that EVs are way worse than ICE vehicles in this specific respect (driving in winter with the heat on). Does it MATTER? Not really, for most people, in most situations - because you just recharge every night. But it matters for people who want to budget their energy usage, or "expect" a certain result. So it's good to get those expectations properly aligned with reality up front. It's part of the learning curve of switching over to EV transportation. My feeling is that if people are educated about the way it will work, most of them will still be happy to buy the vehicle. Because it
usually just doesn't matter.