Design Studio for Everyone

[Aljohn]

There are multiple spread sheet, pdf's, Design center pages all over TMC. Anyone wanting to see the cost and options can do so. I would imagine Tesla is "limiting" the design access to allow a few thousand a week to configure and gain a sense of who is committed to which model and preferences. P90D's are what they are building first--logical follow on to Founders and Signatures--Tesla can plan its production, purchase components, stamp parts and build chassis, motors and batteries with committed orders. Touring the Toyota plant in Kentucky, I was amazed that they knew exactly how many of what they were to build by shift, using the confirmed order backlog to plan parts and labor and even when coils of steel were to be delivered by hour.

Opening the Design center at this time to "EVERYONE" may cause it to slow or crash. Tire kickers, press, future buyers will be testing the site every minute world wide. This could result in chaos on the site, and not achieve the real information Telsa needs. Sure they are building the P90D's first -- let's say that is 25% of the confirmed orders and Tesla has to react by building 90D's and 70D's earlier than stated. Tesla needs lead time. They don't have every seat color and configuration, they may not have the right number of the front and rear motors in stock. Tesla, like most auto makers are "just in time" ordering. What they are doing is just good planning... more efficient manufacturing process.

 

[stealthology]

Have we just sort of unofficially confirmed ~23,500 total Model X pre-orders?

 

[Aljohn]

It became more difficult to estimate after the Sequence numbers ended for new reservation holders some months ago. So the guess of ~23,000 is as good as any. The Model X tracker (here) NewCow, who ordered a few weeks ago received sequence number 23,000+ . That does not account for cancellations over the last 4 years.

I am not an accountant, but imagine if 20,000 Production orders are confirmed by year end (we know up to 10,000 has been invited), then Tesla may be able to claim the $5000 deposits as revenue in 2015....which would equal $100M in revenue. Add another 1200 x $40K Signatures moving from reservation to confirmed and that is another $48M in revenue.

If my assumption is incorrect on General Accepted Accounting, then some Professional please correct me.

 

[CmdrThor]

It became more difficult to estimate after the Sequence numbers ended for new reservation holders some months ago. So the guess of ~23,000 is as good as any. The Model X tracker (here) NewCow, who ordered a few weeks ago received sequence number 23,000+ . That does not account for cancellations over the last 4 years.

I am not an accountant, but imagine if 20,000 Production orders are confirmed by year end (we know up to 10,000 has been invited), then Tesla may be able to claim the $5000 deposits as revenue in 2015....which would equal $100M in revenue. Add another 1200 x $40K Signatures moving from reservation to confirmed and that is another $48M in revenue.

If my assumption is incorrect on General Accepted Accounting, then some Professional please correct me.

I am not a professional, but I am fairly certain they cannot recognize revenue for something they haven't delivered. Tesla could in theory today completely cancel the Model X and not sell a single one beyond the Founders that have already been delivered. Even though the deposits are non-refundable if a customer cancels, if Tesla cancels the transaction they would have to refund everyone's deposits. Obviously I don't think this is going to happen, but that is the reason for rules around accounting.

 

[simplejack]

It became more difficult to estimate after the Sequence numbers ended for new reservation holders some months ago. So the guess of ~23,000 is as good as any. The Model X tracker (here) NewCow, who ordered a few weeks ago received sequence number 23,000+ . That does not account for cancellations over the last 4 years.

I am not an accountant, but imagine if 20,000 Production orders are confirmed by year end (we know up to 10,000 has been invited), then Tesla may be able to claim the $5000 deposits as revenue in 2015....which would equal $100M in revenue. Add another 1200 x $40K Signatures moving from reservation to confirmed and that is another $48M in revenue.

If my assumption is incorrect on General Accepted Accounting, then some Professional please correct me.

There's no way they will get 20k confirmed orders until people have had a chance to see the car in person. They might have 5k confirmed orders now, but I would estimate that is on the high side.

 

[stealthology]

It became more difficult to estimate after the Sequence numbers ended for new reservation holders some months ago. So the guess of ~23,000 is as good as any. The Model X tracker (here) NewCow, who ordered a few weeks ago received sequence number 23,000+ . That does not account for cancellations over the last 4 years.

Hmm. So it would appear that the ModelXTracker website is more than a shade too optimistic..

In any case, let's get some reviews released, some media/social media publicity, some test drive vehicles ASAP.

 

[muleferg]

Ordered a model x in Dec, 2013. paid to get on the 40,000 list and got 126x 2 weeks later they moved the date back to 2015. I called and told they im 81 years old and never buy green bananas. Send me a 85S. Been enjoying my S since March 2014.

 

[vandacca]

Ordered a model x in Dec, 2013. paid to get on the 40,000 list and got 126x 2 weeks later they moved the date back to 2015. I called and told they im 81 years old and never buy green bananas. Send me a 85S. Been enjoying my S since March 2014.

Beautiful wheels! Where did you get them (or what treatment did you use)?

 

[MrBoylan]

Beautiful wheels! Where did you get them (or what treatment did you use)?

"Tsportline Metallic Grey Wheels"

https://tsportline.com/product-category/tesla-wheels/

 

[vandacca]

"Tsportline Metallic Grey Wheels"

https://tsportline.com/product-category/tesla-wheels/

Thanks MrBoylan. I wonder how long it will take them to have 20" greys for the Model-X.

Does anyone have any reviews or experiences they can share regarding the wheels from tsportline.com? I'll do a search of the Model-S forum too.

 

[tliving]

Thanks MrBoylan. I wonder how long it will take them to have 20" greys for the Model-X.

Does anyone have any reviews or experiences they can share regarding the wheels from tsportline.com? I'll do a search of the Model-S forum too.

I have the same Tsportsline wheels on my Model S (19") and love them. Second winter with them on and I look forward to putting them on each winter as an "upgrade" to the stock 19" wheels.

More images/info here if you're interested:
Winter Wheels | Tesla Living

 

[Merrill]

4 working days left to get around 13000 more the design studio.

 

[EboMike]

4 working days left to get around 13000 more the design studio.

I'd say "one Monday left". But it's not really 13000 more, we're still only talking US reservation holders, right? (IIRC Tesla was ambiguous about that)

Not that I believe it's gonna happen either way.

 

[Merrill]

I'd say "one Monday left". But it's not really 13000 more, we're still only talking US reservation holders, right? (IIRC Tesla was ambiguous about that)

Not that I believe it's gonna happen either way.

I thought that there were around 23,000 US reservations.

 

[EboMike]

I thought that there were around 23,000 US reservations.

Not sure what the best source is. The highest production sequence number on Model X Tracker is 21282, and the highest known sequence number to have been invited is 10373. That's a bit more than 10000 left, so doubtful that they'll magically open the floodgates.

 

[Merrill]

Not sure what the best source is. The highest production sequence number on Model X Tracker is 21282, and the highest known sequence number to have been invited is 10373. That's a bit more than 10000 left, so doubtful that they'll magically open the floodgates.

Ok, that is still a bunch to invite. They did say all reservations holders will be invited to configure by the end of the year.

 

[highedu]

Not sure what the best source is. The highest production sequence number on Model X Tracker is 21282, and the highest known sequence number to have been invited is 10373. That's a bit more than 10000 left, so doubtful that they'll magically open the floodgates.

its easy to invite remainder, it's a few clicks in the backend management software to allow 10k or 20k to configure.

 

[EboMike]

its easy to invite remainder, it's a few clicks in the backend management software to allow 10k or 20k to configure.

Well yeah, obviously it's easy to open invites to anyone, but the reason why they haven't done that yet is not because there's a technical hurdle of any sort. 10k hits wouldn't even cause any significant server load, and even if, they could open invites at a rate of one invite per minute or so (which would invite everybody within a week). They probably have reasons not to invite everybody right now, maybe they don't want TOO long a gap between invite and delivery for whatever reason, or maybe there's some other consideration that I don't know.

It looks like right now they're trying to have enough open invitations to ensure they have enough requests in the pipeline, but not much more than that.

 

[MikeL]

Ok, that is still a bunch to invite. They did say all reservations holders will be invited to configure by the end of the year.

Wasn't it, "we hope to be able to invite" ? Big difference