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Deliveries of $80k X?
- Thread starter Smitty79
- Start date
You keep saying this, and I'm curious what you're basing it on. Tesla plays with pricing constantly to reach demand parity with supply. They had an overabundance of supply and cut prices significantly to compensate. It's been massively successful. See here: Tesla New Inventory Counts, aggregated at a North American level
Fom 2111 MX units in inventory on 8/31 to 604 in less than two weeks (and cut in half in 2 days, btw) - and that's not including the vast majority who ordered but didn't pull from inventory.
Many of the orders in the first 2-3 days of the price cut went from 4-6 weeks delivery time to 2-3 months in 10 days. They trimmed margins to a minimum to discharge inventory and achieved their goal. Why in the world would they reduce further? We've already seen a reduction in the loyalty discount, likely as a reactionary measure to successful price cuts without changing pricing again.
Incentives typically come at the end of quarter, not the beginning. Is there some reason you think they'll start marking them down at the start of the year and quarter?
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Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
Tesla always does some kind of incentive in Jan and what I “keep” saying is “what are they going to do”. Historically they will do something. With the X my guess that will have to do with how many cancellations they get in Dec and how many they have to off load in Jan. If rates go up and a lot of people back out they will do an incentive, what that is I have no idea.
I had considered there was a chance prices would drop further or simply allow other interior colors.
Then I saw delivery dates push out and inventory drop like crazy. Loyalty credits dropped.
The thought is in 2024, tax rebate might be half what it is. So if prices did indeed drop to $75k and the rebate is $3750. So the final price is $71k. Currently if you qualify? The price after rebate is $72k.
I don’t see it dropping below $75k personally. But who knows. But I have to think, 40k drop in a year, it would be insane to drop further.
I’ve always felt the X is about a $70k car and here we are at almost $70k after rebate. Good enough for me.
Then I saw delivery dates push out and inventory drop like crazy. Loyalty credits dropped.
The thought is in 2024, tax rebate might be half what it is. So if prices did indeed drop to $75k and the rebate is $3750. So the final price is $71k. Currently if you qualify? The price after rebate is $72k.
I don’t see it dropping below $75k personally. But who knows. But I have to think, 40k drop in a year, it would be insane to drop further.
I’ve always felt the X is about a $70k car and here we are at almost $70k after rebate. Good enough for me.
Serious question: what incentives have they offered in the past? I've been a Tesla customer on three occasions but never in that time frame. And pricing has not always gone down in Jan either, regardless of incentives.
I'm not really expecting many cancellations from expiring FSD transfer victims, either. It's tragic that some of those folks may be let down, but I can assure you that the number of MX buyers that already own a Tesla with FSD doing a transfer is a vanishingly small percentage, despite being a vocal population here. It's completely understandable that they want what Musk promised them, and I hope Tesla does the right thing and extends the window of availability (I would have really liked that when I traded my M3P with FSD for my MS, but Tesla was in a different space then), but evidence shows that the take rate on FSD full purchase is <20%, which would put the number of transfers in the group of MX purchasers much, much lower. Bottom line: I don't believe the sales spike is significantly attributable to FSD transfer customers.
If you're suggesting that an interest rate hike is coming, then I could agree. Certainly, it's not the kind of thing we can control, and would definitely affect sales.
Dont think its priority i think its just ligistics cars are made in California why would they ship them to Florida when they can deliver close first? Idk just what i think
This is definitely true for end of quarter. I got my Model 3 before lots of people at the end of Q3 2018 because I live in Fremont.
Sure, that makes sense mathematically - minimize logistic cost first, then anything else. Always minimizing on logistic cost, in my mind, doesn't work for a business because will alienate the customers that are always last. Tesla should not be defaulting on "minimize logistics". But i cannot read their minds and have no clue what their strategy is or what they think. Some people on this forum think that Tesla is "cycling" through regions to "balance" the deliveries in order to avoid this thinking of "we are always last here". I really do not have clue what Tesla is doing.
ColdWeatherEV
Member
Another Data Point
Order Date Sept 1
ODD Sept-Oct
ODD 2 Oct - Nov
ODD 3 Sept 22 - Oct 13
Salt Lake City Delivery
Long Range, Midnight Silver, 5 seat black Interior
Trading in a Raven LR+ X with FSD.
If Tesla won't transfer FSD, they will have to up the trade in value of our current car. I sure hope we can take delivery before the end of the month. If Tesla low balls the trade in value adjustment, then I may cancel the order and wait for the Cyber Truck or the rumored refreshed Y next year. If they only add 6K to the trade in value, then I'd be tempted to just take the cash and not add full self driving to our new car.
Order Date Sept 1
ODD Sept-Oct
ODD 2 Oct - Nov
ODD 3 Sept 22 - Oct 13
Salt Lake City Delivery
Long Range, Midnight Silver, 5 seat black Interior
Trading in a Raven LR+ X with FSD.
If Tesla won't transfer FSD, they will have to up the trade in value of our current car. I sure hope we can take delivery before the end of the month. If Tesla low balls the trade in value adjustment, then I may cancel the order and wait for the Cyber Truck or the rumored refreshed Y next year. If they only add 6K to the trade in value, then I'd be tempted to just take the cash and not add full self driving to our new car.
iamcaseyf
Member
No, they don’t negotiate. I ended up quoting my ICE vehicle with iBuyers and got a lot more even after tax savings in AZ.
Tesla embraces a very "take it or leave it" philosophy. I wouldn't expect them to adjust any numbers on a trade unless it was a downward adjustment.
beantownrich
Member
Yeah they totally screwed me when I traded my 3 in for my Y. My offer expired 2 days before the car was going to come in and they dropped teh value by $5k for no reason.
This time I left the trade off knowing it won't matter until a week before the car comes. Though I'm worried about if they do wind up honoring the FSD transfer and if I try and add the trade in if it will somehow negate the deal. I would ask but that would require somebody, anybody to pick up a dang phone.
iamcaseyf
Member
I’m willing to bet they don’t extend the FSD transfer into Q4. It was a solid lever they pulled close to halfway through right? Next Q it could be supercharging again who knows
Im part of the FSD transfer squad. I tried to get more info on chat this is what he said to me just now.
We currently do not have any inventory vehicles less than 80k for model x, and custom order est delivery is Oct-Nov currently, and fsd transfer would not apply to custom orders as of now. so essentially the decision is between which one is more critical for you: either the federal tax credit($7,500) (custom order) or the fsd transfer($12,000) (inventory vehicle). Does that make sense?
We currently do not have any inventory vehicles less than 80k for model x, and custom order est delivery is Oct-Nov currently, and fsd transfer would not apply to custom orders as of now. so essentially the decision is between which one is more critical for you: either the federal tax credit($7,500) (custom order) or the fsd transfer($12,000) (inventory vehicle). Does that make sense?
Just another data point. Ordered 9/3- EDD starts tomorrow through early October (no vin yet), which has been unchanged for almost a week. I’m close to Fremont so I’d say eoq priority logistics is definitely happening as it presumably always does. I need the fsd transfer so we’ll see what happens.
I believe the weight of MX makes loading them on haulers a logistical limitation. I see haulers all the time, but never with lots of Xs all at once. Plenty with lots of Ys of course.
Mass CT deliveries beyond Texas will be interesting to watch.
I believe the weight of MX makes loading them on haulers a logistical limitation. I see haulers all the time, but never with lots of Xs all at once. Plenty with lots of Ys of course.
Mass CT deliveries beyond Texas will be interesting to watch.
Yeah, disappointing but predictable response. It seems obvious that the RIGHT thing for Tesla to do would be to extend FSD transfer for those who have an order placed but are waiting for Tesla to deliver the vehicle. Don't understand why this isn't obvious to them.
The problem is determining thr order cut off date. It would probably be according to the website estimate, which moved back ~10 days ago.
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