@samw
I'm not sure what I'll do but it looks like your situation is a lot less complicated than mine. I didn't realize the wait for M3LR was so short!
The way I see it my options are this, in order of likelihood:
- Take delivery in 2021:
- Price discounted by $5.5k
- Sell 2018 M3LR for elevated resale value
- Immediate delivery
- Possible loss of $8k tax credit
- Delay until 2022, no EV tax credit:
- Price discounted by $5.5k
- Sell 2018 M3LR for elevated resale value
- Less immediate delivery
- More torture
- Delay until 2022, EV tax credit passed:
- Price discounted by $5.5k
- Tax credit of $8k
- Sell 2018 M3LR for reduced resale value due to tax credit (~$5k?)
- Less immediate delivery
- Cancel current order, order for delivery in 2022, EV tax credit passed:
- Lose order with $5.5k discount
- Tax credit of $8k
- Sell 2018 M3LR for (very) reduced resale value due to tax credit (~$5k-$10k?) and long delay
- Wait forever for delivery in November 2022
I've given up on trying to time all of the upcoming upgrades because the financial math becomes a lot more complicated. Maybe if MYLR values stay high I can trade up to a newer version but that's a whole new round of mental torture to come. Unfortunately, I think that the MYLR will finally take some resale value hit in 2022 due to a extensive list of coming upgrades, despite the long wait times:
- Tax credit on new vehicles
- 4680 cells
- Front/Rear casting
- New Ryzen CPU
- New paint options, likely better quality
- Rear acoustic glass
- Li-on 12v battery
- etc.