Delay in model X launch?

[Rashomon]

I do think one reaps what one sows - the title and lead-in were gentle enough, but the second post surely showed that the poster rapidly was emboldened. To get push back is natural when things escalate so quickly

You have to have lived through several vehicle launches to know that they are all ugly -- welcome to the sausage factory. If there were no issues whatsoever with the model X at this point, and if every one of hundreds of suppliers were performing perfectly, the X would be truly exceptional. The question is whether last minute difficulties will delay things, or if the focused attention of an intense engineering organization will make the issues vanish for outsiders. We shall see, but I would bet on deliveries in September, and a faster ramp than for the S.

 

[AlMc]

I have to admit some concern when EM confirmed that the s and X only share about 30% common 'parts'. The 'D' ramp did not go as smoothly as everyone who ordered an early P85D knows and the biggest differences were a second motor and option for newer seats. Most people here are TM/EM/TSLA bulls so we don't give validity to even the possibility that the OP could be correct.
Paul..Keep the thread open.

 

[CarlK]

Since op said "Several suppliers do not even have their new machines up and running to provide components;" his info can only be coming from inside Tesla but not one particular supplier. Whatever that means it will make him either more credible, or less credible. Why would anyone want to go to an internet forum to ask for verification if he already got access of inside information?

 

[hobbes]

Why I do believe the starter of this thread is just making up something to spread FUD:

1) There is no delay for Model X:

X is on track for first deliveries in two months and Model 3 in just over two years.

Three Dog Day | Tesla Motors

2) No source given by starter of this thread for posted information/rumor

3) If he had insider information, why should he ask for confirmation (as someone else already noted above)

4) If he had just heard a rumor about this, it would be o.k. to ask for confirmation. But then he wouldn´t know all the details he posted. Also, noone here confirmed the rumor if there ever was one, so most likely no substance.

Shouldn´t close the thread, but just ignore it. At least that´s what I´ll do.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Why I do believe the starter of this thread is just making up something to spread FUD:

1) There is no delay for Model X:

Three Dog Day | Tesla Motors

2) No source given by starter of this thread for posted information/rumor

3) If he had insider information, why should he ask for confirmation (as someone else already noted above)

4) If he had just heard a rumor about this, it would be o.k. to ask for confirmation. But then he wouldn´t know all the details he posted. Also, noone here confirmed the rumor if there ever was one, so most likely no substance.

Shouldn´t close the thread, but just ignore it. At least that´s what I´ll do.

1) OP's claim doesn't say the start of Model X deliveries would be delayed, though. His claim is that volume deliveries would be delayed. OPs claims fit within those comments from Tesla.

2) It is true that the OP can be a troll or otherwise false/unreliable. He/she did provide at least one indication of the type of source, though:

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3) It is true that the original message was odd, though the details came very quickly after the original message so it isn't like the thread evolved over days and weeks into something different. But yes, there is a discrepancy. Whether or not due to style of writing or a troll in evolution, hard to say. Both are possible.

4) I'm not sure that proves anything. This would not be the first time a leakster comes out with information on TMC that nobody else here is able or willing to share. People are also not perfect, sometimes they write hastily and thus get written off as trolls. Of course, the opposite can happen too.

These are the claims, they were posted only an hour apart. Anyone recall of Model X the prototype used hydraulics to open the falcon wings? Could there be anything to the mechanism change claim?

[deleted as per user's request]

[deleted as per user's request]

 

[WarpedOne]

I don't get what is the news here.

>> 1. Build few hundred, mostly, press cars

What else did we expect? First vehicles off the line are always aimed at PR tasks. Loaners, test vehicles, media, press, ...

>> 2. Deliver less than 100 cars to customers by end of the yea

100, 200 or 300, it does not change the fact that deliveries begin in Q4.

>> 3. Call it successful launch of the new model

Because even a single delivered vehicle is a launch. If numbers are not high enough to one liking, it is his problem.


>> 1. Tesla are still doing design changes to some components as they are realising post RC1 build that they have significant number of “challenges”

Model S has already been delivered in +70k instances and it still getting design changes to some components and tesla still realizes there are significant number of challenges left to overcome. It is a never ending battle, the product is never complete, never done. It is just good enough to release.

>> 2. RC2 build vehicles will be “sellable” vehicles but will have number of prototype components that will not be at final specification and therefore inferior to production components that will come in early next year.

As every new model does. Everyting on it is still prototype until it gets replecated in thousands instances and proves it is good enough,

>> 3. Several suppliers do not even have their new machines up and running to provide components; their production tooling is only going to be completed around late Oct / early Nov 2015…

Remember the parcel shelf that was year+ behind schedule? Such things happen, again no news.

>> Significant challenges in supplier base management. I prefer not to go into details at this point

Remember flying the tires by plane from Chech republic? Or shopping for USB cables in wallmart? Such problems are no news. They arise and are resolved.

>> All this is because Elon M does not want to see the share price plummet by announcing that they will miss the launch of Model X this year and that there are number of important issues that they have not resolved/do not know how to resolve yet

Pure speculation bordering on FUD.

>> I would not buy early cars as they will be severely compromised in numerous areas

I wold not buy ANY first year model as they ALL are severely compromised in numerous areas. A fact of live.

Really, there is NO real news in this 'disclosure', just facts of life and production.
Model X will be delayed if there is some big enogh problem that cannot be fixed afterwards in SC. No such thing has been disclosed.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

WarpedOne:

You know me, maybe I have too open-a-mind to consider even the most blatant of trolls, so apologies beforehand.

What I do think is that most on TMC expected Tesla to ramp-up Model X quite fast still in 2015. Thousands have been mentioned often.

Also, many expected Tesla to fare better on Model X due to history and shared parts with Model S. I mean, surely Tesla's "newness" with Model S was not the same as any old issues at any manufacturer.

If what the OP says is right (no idea if he/she is), our optimism may have been unfounded. Of course the 30% mention from Tesla speaks of the same.

So, I think if 2015 sees only a few hundred deliveries, that is different from what was widely expected here.

 

[WarpedOne]

Yes, idea around here was a few thousands in '15 yet I don't remember tesla ever said antyhing more substatial than "a faster ramp than S".
We know the production capacity is shaping up to support the faster ramp but the chain is onyl as strong as the weakest link. They will be able to produce only as much Xes as their least competent supplier (them included). 5k deliveries would be great.

i am just sick of stupidity and sensationalism.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Agreed.

 

[CarlK]

Just want to point out 30% shared parts does not mean the other 70% are totally new and different other than size and shapr difference or some minor modifications. Body shell for example will be entirely different between the two but it's no more difficult to manufacture one than the other. I don't see any new major new components that might present challenges other than the falcon wing doors and perhaps anything related to the added towing capacity.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Just want to point out 30% shared parts does not mean the other 70% are totally new and different other than size and shapr difference or some minor modifications. Body shell for example will be entirely different between the two but it's no more difficult to manufacture one than the other. I don't see any new major new components that might present challenges other than the falcon wing doors and perhaps anything related to the added towing capacity.

Agreed but some ideas for differences maybe:

An innovative second row? Special panoramic glass for front? Adaptive spoiler? Auto-pilot "2"?

 

[CurrentRide]

Some here have speculated that the MS will also get a refresh shortly after the MX reveal. Sharing 30% of the parts with the current MS doesn't mean that they won't have a lot more in common after MS version 2 comes out later. TM may have used the MX engineering resources to rethink the MS design as well (at least on the interior).

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Yes, idea around here was a few thousands in '15 yet I don't remember tesla ever said antyhing more substatial than "a faster ramp than S".

i am just sick of stupidity and sensationalism.

TM did give guidance of 55k combined MS and MX in 2015. That doesn't seem possible without several thousand X deliveries.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Good points, CurrentRide.

 

[muleferg]

 

[NigelM]

Overall though, even if the OP here is correct I'll be OK to wait a couple more months if that's what takes.

P.S. I do acknowledge that I'm lucky enough to be driving my Roadster and Model S while waiting.

 

[Krugerrand]

The 'D' ramp did not go as smoothly as everyone who ordered an early P85D knows and the biggest differences were a second motor and option for newer seats.

And that wasn't entirely or mostly Tesla's fault. The port issues in Oakland played a large role as did the fact that the first newer seats didn't meet a 5* safety rating.

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Why would anyone want to go to an internet forum to ask for verification if he already got access of inside information?[/COLOR]

People do that because they want to tell people they know something that you don't - makes them feel superior. Secondarily, the manner it which the thread was started and then quickly evolved is done by people who think they are way more clever than they actually are.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Obvious shorting here:

1. Joined Today
2. Leading question as first comment
3. Reply copy and pasted from program of choice as a response to the obvious replies

Lame-sauce.

Just to add to this, the OP started this thread mere minutes after the conclusion of the press conference.

Coincidence? I certainly don't think so.

 

[AlMc]

I understand that the supplier was most likely at fault over the seats/safety rating. That is my worry with the X launch as well. Line 2/TM may be ready and able to ramp X quickly with excellent quality....but what happens if some of the 70% 'new' part of the X that comes from a supplier that is not ready for the ramp/quality. TM may have learned a lot from the model S issues (door handles/cracking windshields/12volt battery issues) and 'D' (seats) that will make the X launch very smooth by comparison. I would just suggest that the risk for investors and first delivery recipients is there.
Like many here I have a significant stake as an investor and TM product purchaser. I believe discussing risks whether the discussion was initiated by someone with true information or a 'troll' is a way to make sure we all are comfortable with those risks.

 

[NigelM]

...but what happens if some of the 70% 'new' part of the X that comes from a supplier that is not ready for the ramp/quality.

a) Our cars are delivered a little later and there will much grinding and gnashing of teeth on the forums.
b) Elon punches himself in the face again.

Hopefully it won't come to either of those, even though the risk is there.

 

[aesculus]

If they start delivering a few cars in September, that still leaves October, November and December to make a few thousand cars. Does not seem improbably at all.