Coronavirus

[FoverM]

Here's a graph of the 7-day averages of GA daily positives and tests:

There has been a huge increase in testing but relatively flat positives. In a week or two I expect the positives will increase somewhat. Because of the reopening of the state? Nope, because Gov Kemp recently opened up testing to everyone.

It's difficult to get information on these numbers. Are these swabs showing an active infection or are they antibody tests showing past infection??? Or does everything get piled into one number?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The rest of the country is more problematic though. On average should be nowhere near 20%. Closer to 2%....

You know this from........all the testing we're wet doing?

 

[JRP3]

Nearly one-third of Americans believe a coronavirus vaccine exists and is being withheld, survey finds

Probably the same people who wouldn't take the vaccine either. Problem solved?

 

[phantasms]

Any thoughts on this likely Covid related kid illness popping up?

A 5yo boy recently died from it in Westchester county, just North of NYC.

I have a 5yo boy in Westchester county.

 

[dfwatt]

Daily Aspirin Fails as Primary Prevention in ARRIVE Trial

Latest results are shooting this whole ASA thing down. And daily lifetime ASA most definitely can have unwanted effects, even at low doses.

A major change for daily aspirin therapy - Harvard Health

This is not really news. Aspirin clearly has failed as a primary preventive treatment but it has not failed as a secondary preventative treatment, defined as reducing the likelihood of an MI for folks who've already had one. There it really does work. It may also have some efficacy in a modest sort of way as an anticancer preventative. But not nearly as much as avoiding a wide vareity of toxins, especially smoking, regular exercising, sleeping, eating sensibly, Etc.

I find the obsessive focus on vitamin C and ASA as miracle cures reminiscent of the kind of magical thinking that infects so much of the US population and that is a fundamental factor in so-called health illiteracy. This is the appealing but ultimately futile search for magic bullets that will prevent or even cure the diseases of Aging ( the Big 4 being type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease/stroke, Cancers, and neurodegenerative disorders). We know how to prevent them or at least lessen their penetration and it's all in the classic lifestyle factors.

Those are in a sense hard work, and Magic Bullets are easy. Humans like easy better than hard. So the media mythology surrounding vitamin C, vitamin D, and ASA continue. This is not to say that Vitamin C and vitamin D are not absolutely biologically essential for life (they are!) and their deficiency has serious consequences. You could also advance an argument that our notion of deficiency is probably too generous and the deficiency may start (at least in terms of some adverse consequences and increased vulnerabilities) before you reach a technically deficient level in relationship to both vitamin C and vitamin D. In other words there maybe benefit in aiming for a somewhat higher level of both vitamin C and vitamin D than current minimums. The other interesting and neglected fact in all this is that vitamin D isn't really a vitamin it's a prohormone, and (also like most if not all hornmones) it acts as a transcription factor and regulator, in this case in relationship to probably at least 10% if not 20% of the mammalian genome. Like all hormones it's synthesized from cholesterol.

 

[SMAlset]

Any thoughts on this likely Covid related kid illness popping up?

A 5yo boy recently died from it in Westchester county, just North of NYC.

I have a 5yo boy in Westchester county.

Saw several news stories yesterday on this. Gov. Cuomo spoke about it during a briefing as well as did the NJ Gov Murphy on a case there where a child died. NY statistics I latest saw were something like 72 cases from NY hospitals reporting in, that was from an earlier report of 15 cases. Apparently this is something that’s been observed in other countries and noted, but not really tracked, but now that effort is being made here in US and assume will be worldwide. BTW last night I read a child in Westchester County, several years older than the 5 year old that had died also succumbed to this mystery illness.

I’m not sure if parents on TMC want to talk about it but Gov Cuomo told parents to call their doctor immediately if they observe the signs of it in their child. Described like toxic shock syndrome which needs to be caught earlier to prevent death. Probably would be helpful to post the symptoms here but unfortunately don’t have the time to look back thru articles right now. It was something Gov Cuomo had on the screen during his briefing however.

 

[azaz]

The Fremont factory re-opening being scrapped is not surprising. Newsom’s order specifically only allowed manufacturing for the associated businesses. Not all manufacturing.

this lawsuit now is gonna be bad for Tesla’s brand

 

[SMAlset]

Saw this article title pop up in my google news listing just now. BTW linked to a NY Post story but sure it will be circulating elsewhere: Ivanka Trump’s personal assistant latest to test positive for coronavirus

Find it interesting that while testing isn’t being pushed for the country (except from the WH’s and other governmental medical experts) I read the WH is doing it there and both the president and vice president get tested daily as well as testing of people they see. The fact there can be false tests and an infected person can have it yet not have it show up immediately but still spread it just seems like masks are a smart thing to wear in general. Damn the optics unless you want to possibly see what Boris Johnson went through.

 

[dhanson865]

Knox County locks out Knox News science reporter from coronavirus media update

they say "unprofessional behavior directed toward the Health Department and his inaccurate reporting that has been constantly riddled with half-truths, missing facts and and a constant false narrative." is the reason they barred him.

examples of his questions are:

* Based on data made available by your department, it appears Knox County has not been hit as hard as other places. That would point to a success story that Knox County should be trumpeting, but it’s impossible to do that without knowing all the underlying data. Does the health department intend to tell that full story, undergirded by data, and if so, when and how?

* You have said that you rely on multiple models when making decisions about Knox County, but you have not specified which models you are using. Please list the models you are using when making decisions about Knox County.

* Do these models calculate our effective transmission number? If so, please tell us what the effective transmission (R) is.

* You’ve said in multiple news conferences that you’ll base decisions on “data” but you have not provided specific metrics or benchmarks you use to make decisions. What specific data, metrics and benchmarks will trigger a change in policy? If you are declining to provide those benchmarks, please explain why.

* You have said you’re tracking COVID-like illness and clinical presentation of COVID. When are you going to make that information public?

* What are the raw case numbers, the incidence and prevalence of COVID-like illness in the county?

* The state and federal government have been tracking COVID-like illness in emergency rooms since at least February using the syndromic surveillance network. That’s also part of the county-level pandemic plan. Have you been tracking COVID-like illness using this system? If not, why not?

* The scientific process is constantly evolving, and includes uncertainty. What are some to the limitations of the information you’re using and how are you accounting for it in your decision-making?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

1660 dead in Stockholm city limits (974k population) or in greater Stockholm metro area (2.38m)?

Good question. I’d have to poke at their Tableau presentation and look at some maps a bit more to see. So likely 20% at most then. Denominator likely to increase in % a lot more than numerator.

Here's a graph of the 7-day averages of GA daily positives and tests:

Looking good. Positivity still a bit high but trending the right direction. Gotta triple the test capacity at least, it looks like, to bring about a swift denouement.

You know this from........all the testing we're wet doing?

I was referring to Sweden and estimating roughly from an assumed IFR of about 1%. There is going to be some slop on these numbers for sure. The serology number from Sweden, if we ever get them, will indicate how close my guess is.

Any thoughts on this likely Covid related kid illness popping up?

My biggest thought/question - how common is it, actually? If there are thousands and thousands of kids infected, a few kids having complications is frightening, but less worrying. Just have no idea what the % is.

 

[TEG]

What are people's latest thoughts on pain/fever reducers during initial symptoms of COVID-19?
In particular, if one is running a fever and feels ill which of common off-the-shelf pain / fever reducers should be used?

• acetaminophen ?
  
• ibuprofen ?
  
• aspirin ?

I have seen various conflicting suggestions...
"Don't reduce the fever because it is your body working to slow the virus..." ?
"You need to keep the fever down as it is harmful..." ?
"This causes blood clotting and aspirin may help with that..." ?
"ibuprofin is bad..." ?
No Evidence to Back COVID-19 Ibuprofen Concerns
COVID NSAID
USC Testing Anti-Inflammatory Drug To Treat COVID-19

( Note, I don't have any symptoms... just asking... )

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Knox County locks out Knox News science reporter from coronavirus media update

they say "unprofessional behavior directed toward the Health Department and his inaccurate reporting that has been constantly riddled with half-truths, missing facts and and a constant false narrative." is the reason they barred him.

examples of his questions are:

Seems that you guys are in excellent hands.

 

[SMAlset]

I have to throw the DQ flag (Drama Queen) on this writer and penalize him 15 yards:

I Just Flew. It Was Worse Than I Thought It Would Be.

Are people really this stupid?

My wife flew to TX recently to help her mom recuperate after surgery. Her flight had around 30 people on it and everyone wore a mask. No food or drinks served. Otherwise, you check your bags, get on the plane, fly to the destination, and then get off and collect your bags. That's it.

PS. TX is not joking when they say they'll check on you to see if you're honoring the 14-day quarantine. A State Trooper showed up at her mom's house one day to verify my wife was there.

hmm, I knew Hawaii was strictly enforcing their 14-day quarantine for visitors to the island but not Texas. I wonder what they do in Texas if violating it. Hawaii will put you on a plane and end your trip there.

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"Today we are at 1,203, way below 50% of our peak.

447 on ventilators.

Kids: We want to talk about kids today. Children have been far less susceptible to COVID 19. Only a small amount get sick from it. Starting on April 18th we started seeing children with a presentation of Kawasaki disease (usually affects 25/1000 children under the age of 6). We have now seen 17 patients and we are seeing more. Less than half of the children were positive for COVID, those that were not were positive were positive for antibodies. Presenting 2-6 weeks after the initial infection occurred. There are likely more mild cases.

Masks: FDA tested a whole bunch of masks, particularly some of the KN95 masks coming from china and found that they are not filtering out the right particles. There are many fraudulent masks so be careful.

Renew: we are going to have more patients coming back into all of our facilities. At our larger facilities we are going to start to separate our entrances, employee entrances and others for patients and visitors. We will do that to screen our patients."

 

[dfwatt]

What are people's latest thoughts on pain/fever reducers during initial symptoms of COVID-19?
In particular, if one is running a fever and feels ill which of common off-the-shelf pain / fever reducers should be used?

• acetaminophen ?
  
• ibuprofen ?
  
• aspirin ?

I have seen various conflicting suggestions...
"Don't reduce the fever because it is your body working to slow the virus..." ?
"You need to keep the fever down as it is harmful..." ?
"This causes blood clotting and aspirin may help with that..." ?
"ibuprofin is bad..." ?
No Evidence to Back COVID-19 Ibuprofen Concerns
COVID NSAID
USC Testing Anti-Inflammatory Drug To Treat COVID-19

( Note, I don't have any symptoms... just asking... )

As the factcheck.org statement about ibuprofen makes clear for every argument you can make about adverse effects of either ibuprofen or Tylenol you can make a counter argument in the other direction. Long story short – we just don't know. This business of drug effects being janus-faced is a long problem in biology. It puts the lie to the notion that drugs have side effects. They simply have effects and the effects that we don't like we call side effects but they're part and parcel of the same biological footprint so to speak.

You can see this dilemma reflected in an increasing appreciation over the past two decades that any protracted pro-inflammatory state can cause organ damage and even organ failure. But then you have a conundrum. If you inhibit immunity and you prevent removal of both a target virus and virus-infected cells you may actually be simply prolonging or protracting the problem or even making it worse. This is the Dilemma of course posed by steroids in severe inflammatory immune challenge (and steroids don't really have a great track record in covid-19).

There's just so much we don't know about the immune system and there are roughly about a hundred known players in immune/inflammatory response (with several layers of interactivity among the known players). It's really like a vast ecology of its own. It would be great if we had a technology that would maximize antiviral defense while minimizing Collateral Damage by activated immune cells in vulnerable tissues such as the lung, kidney, and endothelial systems, Etc. Unfortunately from the standpoint of our current science, that's Star Trek medicine, other than antibodies which are the closest thing to a highly targeted immune response with minimal collateral damage. But outside of antibody delivery, we just don't have that level of understanding. Maybe a future biological technology will allow us to ramp up adaptive (antibody dependent) immunity much more quickly. That of course would be a game-changer, but I suspect that's going to be hard to achieve.

 

[DanCar]

What are people's latest thoughts on pain/fever reducers during initial symptoms of COVID-19?)...

Very bad.

Everything is outlined in the first 3 minutes:
1. Fever makes it harder for viruses to replicate
2. Fever puts your body's immune system into hyperactivity.
3. Fever lets you know you are sick.

Fever lets you know you should lay down and take it easy.
Fever lets you know you should stay away from others.​

During early days of swine flu I looked at cases resulting in death. I was shocked to find that in every case that resulted in death and if they indicated whether anti fever medication was taken, all had taken anti fever medication. Although this might be an indication of how prevalent anti fever medication is.

 

[TEG]

Although CNN & Fox tend to be politically polarized at opposite ends of the spectrum, here is an article from each about criticisms of the American COVID response:
Allies despair as Trump abandons America's leadership role at a time of global crisis - CNNPolitics
Obama says coronavirus response has been a ‘chaotic disaster,' blames ‘selfish’ mindset
( I am a bit surprised that Fox published those Obama quotes.)

 

[SMAlset]

More this morning on the children aspect, now three deaths in NY: (Newsday: Cuomo: 226 new COVID-19 deaths statewide; new focus on illness in kids )


“Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo reported 226 new COVID-19 deaths Saturday — a figure he called "infuriatingly constant" — as the state turns a focus to what's thought to be a coronavirus-linked illness that has killed three young children.

Hospitals in New York have reported 73 cases of the illness in children, Cuomo said, adding that those mostly toddler to elementary-school age are affected. The symptoms are similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic-shock-like syndrome, he said.

More than two dozen children have been treated in Long Island hospitals.”

 

[EVNow]

Although this might be an indication of how prevalent anti fever medication is.

Very prevalent. Anytime kids or I've fever, first question everyone asks is what fever medication we are taking. Not whether.

 

[Mader Levap]

Orange Man Bad Disease.

Your tribe screwed up handling COVID-19 and deserves losing in Nov for that alone. Get over it.

Once it became clear that millions weren't going to die,

Nice strawman.

( I am a bit surprised that Fox published those Obama quotes.)

It is because El Orango and Fox News had falling out.