Coronavirus

[azaz]

Musk has real risk of doing damage to Tesla’s brand if they are seen as the company that forced their workers to work and made the situation worse

his tweets are mind numbingly stupid

 

[linux-works]

I don't have access to a private 110 outlet, even. if I tried, it would be stolen by the next AM (no controlled access to the parking lot or garage and no outlets near the cars, anyway). so I have 2 choices, super or work-charge.

I mostly do work-charge but now, that's not very realistic.

even if I let the car sit, I'm still going to have to make runs to something to keep the battery level from going too low. and you never know if you might need to make an emergency trip.

(if I did have a locking garage, yes, I would go the 100vac route, but I don't)

 

[eevee-fan]

$1K a month would make a huge difference for the people who really need it, people who live on $1K/month.
Would be a hilarious series of ironies for history if a Republican germophobic xenophobic president were brought down by what he called a "foreign virus" and a massive social safety net is what saves lives and livings and turns a bunch of purple states blue for a few cycles.

This last weekend, I was reading some site that says the nation would be blue after this for 30 years. So, when asked, Trump said he would probably run as a democrat... is this his way to "bring balance to the force"? Trump Vader!

 

[linux-works]

I think that in 6 months time, americans are going to learn to pronounce that S-word and realize its actually to their collective benefit.

we needed a big lesson. this is a painful one, but perhaps it really took this kind of thing to show people that being selfish (capitalism) does not scale.

 

[nwdiver]

Would be a hilarious series of ironies for history if a Republican germophobic xenophobic president were brought down by what he called a "foreign virus"

... Taken down by a 'Chinese Flu' named after a Mexican Beer

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hearing reports from Korea that all is pretty much contained. No mandatory shutdowns, just heavy (Korean style) cooperation with distancing.

The major difference this is absolutely diligent testing of anyone showing symptoms and follow-up to sterilize anywhere they were.

Panic works too tho I guess.

 

[Cherry Wine]

CA suspends legislative session beginning Friday night through 4/13. First time in 158 years.

Stefanie Dazio on Twitter

 

[nwdiver]

Panic works too tho I guess.

I wouldn't characterize this as 'panic'; Do you think it's worth the risk of ending up like Italy?

 

[SageBrush]

I wonder how the tobacco industry is doing these days

 

[ChadS]

One restaurant owner on CNBC is predicting that ~70% of restaurants will fail if the COVID dip lasts longer than 6 weeks which it almost certainly will. It's not like those businesses will spring back overnight. Most will be gone forever unless they get direct fiscal support.

I am pretty worried about small businesses getting lost in the shuffle here too.

But, here's a cheery anecdote that may help a bit: my cousin runs a burger joint not far from Seattle. Over this past week, his business is UP. It's all take-out, of course, but I guess that when people have to stay home, they figure they might as well order some food.

Who knows if it will last.

HERE is a story about one of Seattle's best-known high-end restaurants; they switched to an extremely simplified menu and opened a drive through; and while it just started, they are off to a very busy start...

 

[Cosmacelf]

I wonder how the tobacco industry is doing these days

That’s one industry I’d like to see die. I wonder why I haven’t seen much in the way of media telling people to quit as something they could do in this crisis?

 

[renim]

again the same scenario will play out, but with greater stakes involved

The Tamiflu fiasco and lessons learnt
The Tamiflu fiasco and lessons learnt

'Oseltamivir – Is It a Case of Multisystem Failure?
Approval by US US FDA and EMA appears to be a judgment based medicine rather than evidence-based medicine. It appears that the regulatory authorities took their decision under the pressure of providing a pharmaceutical solution to a pandemic disease.

Stockpiling by the countries was based on assumptions and not hard data. None of the studies were done during a pandemic. Access to full methods and results was not available to regulatory authority. There is always a high degree of control over the trial if it is conducted by manufacturer, and it creates conflict of interest.[38]'

 

[Bob M]

First correct for co-morbidities as people get older. If any excess morbidity or mortality is left over then look for contributory mechanisms.

How do you hypothesize immunosenscense and exaggerated immune response in the same sentence ?

I do think these two things can go together. When the immune system is inefficient by virtue of age or compromise it can be slower in mounting a defense when the body has some immunity to the virus. This allows the virus population to grow so large that the eventual inflammatory reaction is dangerous. Though I am not a medical person I do have some background with my undergraduate degree in bacteriology, but as a 75 yr old with a 72 yr old wife with a severely compromised immune system (last year she was hospitalized with 3 pneumonias) I have been reading very intensely on this disease and trying to understand its transmission history. The more I have learned the more I believe we are taking the correct actions though they seemed an over reaction earlier.

 

[adiggs]

Modeling of how the virus is likely to progresss in UK and US, given what we know at this time. The methodology is spelled out completely (which doesn't that they have the right answer, but it does mean you can challenge any of their assumptions in great detail).
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The abstract is -- compelling. I found the discussion on P14-16 well worth the read to get to.
One small snippet:

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

 

[eevee-fan]

I am pretty worried about small businesses getting lost in the shuffle here too.

But, here's a cheery anecdote that may help a bit: my cousin runs a burger joint not far from Seattle. Over this past week, his business is UP. It's all take-out, of course, but I guess that when people have to stay home, they figure they might as well order some food.

Who knows if it will last.

HERE is a story about one of Seattle's best-known high-end restaurants; they switched to an extremely simplified menu and opened a drive through; and while it just started, they are off to a very busy start...

Big corporations are people, too. I am not sure a small business counts. Sad but true... same with small farmers who got whacked in the trade war while big corporate farms are bailed out.

 

[bkp_duke]

CA suspends legislative session beginning Friday night through 4/13. First time in 158 years.

Stefanie Dazio on Twitter

Not like they were doing anything worthwhile anyway.

 

[linux-works]

just a cautionary tale. if you get shut-in for too long...

stay safe - in more ways than one.

 

[renim]

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it looks like the Chinese approach will coalesce around a combination of antivirals, antimalerials, interferons and traditional Chinese Medicine.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

EVERYONE is going to take a bath. we all need to realize that pretty much the whole world econ is ill-prepared for this kind of event.

quarters? think 'years' for a real recovery.

ripples will be felt for a long time. like reflections, they'll bounce out to the perimeter, then echo back in and we'll be in oscillation for a long time.

anyone who is thinking of 'quarterly profits' needs a REALITY adjustment.

this is post-virus. we need new post-virus thinking.

(sort of half serious)

I think this is way too pessimistic.

The impact of having a proper fast, free, and widespread testing and surveillance system is significant. That's what worked in South Korea.

If you actually have such a thing in place, you can stamp out outbreaks wherever there is community spread (and possibly enforce social distancing in those specific hotspots). And anywhere there is no such spread can pretty much get back to normal (with ongoing testing). That means at any time only small sections of the country would be affected (and long term they would tend to zero).

So this testing system is probably here to stay until a vaccine is developed. It's just a small amount of overhead once production and administration of the tests is optimized.

The only reason we're locked down everywhere right now is that we did not have a rigorous surveillance system in place to pick up the outbreaks immediately and quench them before they got everywhere. Longterm, think of something that a doctor can administer and get immediate results, on everyone who comes into their office (would pick up mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic individuals). Screening for fevers everywhere (might pick up some "asymptomatic: people). Screening at all borders. Repeat screening for travelers a few days after entry and on exit from the country. We might need a lot of RT-PCR machines. So be it.

The ripples you speak of will be eliminated by rapid identification and contact tracing. They won't turn into tsunamis over the course of 4-5 weeks like they did this time. Remember, the virus established itself in the United States in mid-January. The first impacts were in mid-February, and identification did not take place until end of February (technically - people knew it was here a couple weeks before that but were not allowed to test). Takes a long time to become a problem.

It'll cost some money, but obviously it's worthwhile to just implement that testing system. It'll work, and life will go back to normal. Life is normal now nearly everywhere - it's just that it's silently exponentially approaching failure - hence the lockdown. We just have to push ourselves way down that exponential curve, continuously. And then we'll be fine.

 

[linux-works]

I think this is way too pessimistic.

you totally miss my point.

even a few weeks of lost wages will set people back YEARS in trying to get back.

people on a tesla forum may not understand that (with some exceptions) - but a lot of people will be thrown way off course and it will take YEARS to recover.

when the ripple effect happens, it magnifies. more ripples at different frequencies will combine in bad ways in unpredictable periods.

so many people live paycheck to paycheck and have no savings and nearly worthless insurance.

do NOT underestimate how this will set us all back years.

most of the world is poor or, at best, middle class. they will pay the highest price.