Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[McRat]

...

For the Bolt, pack estimate was 30k-50k annual volume. This works out to 2.5k-4.2k packs per month. ...

The exact same person who insisted the Bolt will not have enough battery production said:

• The Bolt will be a 2018 Model.
• It is a rebadged Chevrolet Sonic with the battery kludged into it awkwardly.
• It is a sub-compact, and uses a picture of the Spark as artwork.
• It absolutely has to lose a lot of money. A lot. Batteries are too expensive.
• The drivetrain will be Volt components minus the ICE.
• "Can it actually go 200 miles?" "Probably" But only because of the intense backlash if it doesn't hit 200mi since the 238 MPG claim hurt the Volt badly.
• The Model 3 launches as a 2017, but will not be a competitor due to it's much larger compact/mid-sized format.
• The 2018 Bolt's competition is the 2017 Leaf with 150 miles of range, or an i3 with similar range.
• The Bolt cannot break even on price. It's sole purpose is to be a 'disruptor' to other EV efforts.
  
• The Bolt will be made in limited quantities, certainly not 10,000 units since it's only for disruption.
• Chevrolet will not use aluminum or advanced materials in the Bolt due to the $15,000+ battery necessary.

Seriously, the true production numbers at this point are most likely higher than 10,000 already. How much higher? Anybody's guess.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Since when has Tesla needed that many packs for initial production to prove your point?

Model S and Model X ramped up much slower than Bolt at this stage. Your point can not really be substantiated.

LG having a ramp-up curve for the packs sounds perfectly plausible to me.

You can look at Leaf and Volt ramp up too. They were car assembly constrained too, not pack constrained. I haven't seen an example where the launch ends up pack constrained.

 

[Jeff N]

The 'designer of the Bolt', as per video, did not create this good stuff but he did build a body for it with all kind of great ergonomics that I can't wait to see. But as soon as I get my hands on it I'll probably want to hop it up with the '14 Spark innards. 8^))

Just for the record, the Bolt EV has about 18% more HP per pound of curb weight and about 22% more torque at the final drive axle per pound of curb weight than a 2014 Spark EV. That's why it accelerates faster than a Spark EV.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

You can look at Leaf and Volt ramp up too. They were car assembly constrained too, not pack constrained. I haven't seen an example where the launch ends up pack constrained.

Why could Bolt not be pack or drivetrain constrained? LG shipping only so many at this stage... Bolt's supply chain is very different from other GM cars in this area...

Anyway, point is, Bolt can certainly be supply constrained at this stage. Too early to jump to any other conclusions.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why could Bolt not be pack or drivetrain constrained? LG shipping only so many at this stage... Bolt's supply chain is very different from other GM cars in this area...

Anyway, point is, Bolt can certainly be supply constrained at this stage. Too early to jump to any other conclusions.

Because critical components like the pack they will allocate more than needed for the initial run.

I agree. Bolt is probably supply limited, I just don't think the pack has to do with it, and the whole pack constraint was always about max capacity anyways (not about initial ramp up).

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Because critical components like the pack they will allocate more than needed for the initial run.

I agre. Bolt is probably supply limited, I just don't think the pack has to do with it, and the whole pack constraint was always about max capacity anyways (not about initial ramp up).

I agree that we don't know what part it is, but we should give time for ramp-up - after all, there are so many other examples of this with new EVs...

 

[stopcrazypp]

The exact same person who insisted the Bolt will not have enough battery production said:

• The Bolt will be a 2018 Model.
• It is a rebadged Chevrolet Sonic with the battery kludged into it awkwardly.
• It is a sub-compact, and uses a picture of the Spark as artwork.
• It absolutely has to lose a lot of money. A lot. Batteries are too expensive.
• The drivetrain will be Volt components minus the ICE.
• "Can it actually go 200 miles?" "Probably" But only because of the intense backlash if it doesn't hit 200mi since the 238 MPG claim hurt the Volt badly.
• The Model 3 launches as a 2017, but will not be a competitor due to it's much larger compact/mid-sized format.
• The 2018 Bolt's competition is the 2017 Leaf with 150 miles of range, or an i3 with similar range.
• The Bolt cannot break even on price. It's sole purpose is to be a 'disruptor' to other EV efforts.
  
• The Bolt will be made in limited quantities, certainly not 10,000 units since it's only for disruption.
• Chevrolet will not use aluminum or advanced materials in the Bolt due to the $15,000+ battery necessary.

Seriously, the true production numbers at this point are most likely higher than 10,000 already. How much higher? Anybody's guess.

Are you paraphrasing me? If so I don't appreciate the twisting/spinning of my words to say something else (perhaps even making it up), esp. without any context.

 

[McRat]

Are you paraphrasing me? If so I don't appreciate the twisting/spinning of my words to say something else completely, esp. without any context.

Not unless you are "Green Car Reports" Jan 13, 2015. But if the Foo shiits ...

Tourist walking in China has a bird crap on him, so he starts to wipe it off. An old woman stops him. "Do not wipe that off! That came from the Cherry Foo Bird and is very good luck!" The tourist flipped her off, then wiped it off. As he was crossing the street, a bus flattened him. Moral to the story? If the Foo Shits, Wear It!

 

[stopcrazypp]

Not unless you are "Green Car Reports" Jan 13, 2015. But if the Foo shiits ...

Tourist walking in China has a bird crap on him, so he starts to wipe it off. An old woman stops him. "Do not wipe that off! That came from the Cherry Foo Bird and is very good luck!" The tourist flipped her off, then wiped it off. As he was crossing the street, a bus flattened him. Moral to the story? If the Foo Shits, Wear It!

I didn't mention or reference green car reports in the comment you quoted, so now you are confusing me further. Not sure what relevance it has.

 

[McRat]

I didn't mention green car reports in the comment you quoted, so now you are confusing me further. Not sure what relevance it has.

GCR is one of many Expert Sources who claim General Motors could not ever procure 30-50,000 batteries in 2017 under any conditions, difference sources have different limits but all fall in that window. None are believable. It is believable there is not 30,000 units worth of demand though.

 

[stopcrazypp]

GCR is one of many Expert Sources who claim General Motors could not ever procure 30-50,000 batteries in 2017 under any conditions, difference sources have different limits but all fall in that window. None are believable. It is believable there is not 30,000 units worth of demand though.

I didn't rely on those sources, I derived the numbers myself based on known LG Chem capacity announcements. In fact, I believe I was the first to estimate a 50k number (I said 53k) when all the other sources were saying 30k was the max.
Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

2 days later after my post, GM then talks about 50k, which confirmed my post.
Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

The 30k-50k variation is to account for the cell factory assigning for different contracts. Not all of the cells will only be going to the Bolt.

 

[McRat]

I didn't rely on those sources, I derived the numbers myself based on known LG Chem capacity announcements. In fact, I believe I was the first to estimate a 50k number (I said 53k) when all the other sources were saying 30k was the max.
Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

2 days later after my post, GM then talks about 50k, which confirmed my post.
Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

The 30k-50k variation is to account for the cell factory assigning for different contracts. Not all of the cells will only be going to the Bolt.

Yep. 2018 and 200.0 miles, stick with it!

Seriously, unless you work for LG Chem or GM upper management, (not the market dept or eng) you have no actual idea what the absolute peak capacity would be.

But! You only have to make components for cars you build! It's called JIT and how the auto industry operates.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Isn't the fairly imminent arrival of the Model 3 dampening sales of the Bolt? Most potential EV buyers have heard of Tesla, like the brand name, like the thought of a cheaper Tesla. They may not realize that Model 3 is two years away for anyone not already on the list...

 

[stopcrazypp]

Yep. 2018 and 200.0 miles, stick with it!

Seriously, unless you work for LG Chem or GM upper management, (not the market dept or eng) you have no actual idea what the absolute peak capacity would be.

But! You only have to make components for cars you build! It's called JIT and how the auto industry operates.

For battery factories, absolute peak capacity is a common PR point to promote them (this is very different from other industries). In PR announcements, battery companies give estimates of how many cells and GWh nameplate the factory has (although recently they are smarter and use obfuscation like using units in packs or number of EVs which mask a specific number). The nameplate is with all shifts and all possible assembly lines running, AKA the absolute peak number. They use the biggest numbers possible as that's great for PR (important to justify investment into the factory). But so far they have almost never used anywhere near to nameplate (LG Chem was burned previously by over-investing).

These numbers can be cross referenced by comparing battery shipments and knowing how many assembly lines are running or shut down (which occasionally get reported in the media). For example in my post, using the PR nameplate from 2013, it's possible to estimate the Holland plant has a max capacity of 17.28 million Volt sized cells per year. Then a few years down the line with data in 2015 about actual assembly line status, the estimate comes to 16.9 million cells per year. Analysis like this can be done to get fairly decent estimates of max capacity at a given moment.

Of course, these numbers can change with new expansions and factories too (for example when the Poland plant is online, it'll change). But those changes are always made public, so they can be factored in when the time comes.

 

[Canuck]

I saw my first Bolt in person the other day a few blocks from my home. That surprised me. But I checked Craigslist and see some are actually in stock and can be bought today...

NEW 2017 Chevrolet BOLT LT AVAILABLE for sale act fast

2017 CHEVY BOLT PREMIER *AVAILABLE TODAY*

Note - these are priced in Canadian dollars which is currently at 75 cents.

If the Model 3 was not coming out, I'd seriously consider one to replace our Leaf.

 

[wdolson]

I can almost guarantee Bolt sales will top Model S or Model X (and of course Model 3...zing!) sales for April. Based on current numbers, Bolt sales thus far in April have already eclipsed the March result of 978.

If you are just looking at US sales, that may be true. In the first month of every quarter Tesla focuses on international cars, so US sales are usually low. Tesla will probably sell 6-7000 cars in April, but most will be overseas and not reported on Inside EVs. Chevy will not come close to that, though they could top Tesla in domestic sales this month.

It's still early days on the Bolt. They aren't flying off dealer's lots, but we'll see.

I've talked before about the EV ghetto car makers have created. The people who buy cars like the Leaf are generally eco buyers and some people who buy for various incentives. Outside that population, there is zero interest in EVs other than Tesla. Tesla is the only pure EV that gets any attention from people outside that world. That makes Tesla's potential customer base a lot larger. Despite the nosebleed price tag, the Model S and X were the two best selling pure EVs in the US in 2016 and they remain the top two sellers. Tesla has a fair number of eco buyers, but they also have people who cross shopped Tesla with ICEs, something that doesn't happen with other pure EVs. The most cross shopping people do between other pure EVs is compare them to hybrids.

The Bolt has made a splash in the pure EV ghetto, but it isn't even well known outside that world. If the general public were asked to name as many pure EVs they could, many could probably not name any but the Model S and X would probably be at or near the top of the list. The Leaf might make it. But other pure EVs would probably only get a smattering of mentions.

As time goes on the Bolt might get better known and it might even be the first non-Tesla to break out of the EV ghetto. But it isn't there yet.

 

[wycolo]

>> as soon as I get my hands on (a Bolt) I'll probably want to hop it up with the '14 Spark innards. [wycolo]

> Just for the record, the Bolt EV has about 18% more HP per pound of curb weight and about 22% more torque at the final drive axle per pound of curb weight than a 2014 Spark EV. That's why it accelerates faster than a Spark EV. [Jeff N]

Yes, but no joy, to my mind. GM changed the gearing to spin up the motor for extra performance in the Bolt. My motivation is to put in the complete '14 Spark powertrain and enjoy its unique low rpm style of driving where you never hear or feel the motor at all and still have bags of torque when you press the pedal.
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[Saghost]

>> as soon as I get my hands on (a Bolt) I'll probably want to hop it up with the '14 Spark innards. [wycolo]

> Just for the record, the Bolt EV has about 18% more HP per pound of curb weight and about 22% more torque at the final drive axle per pound of curb weight than a 2014 Spark EV. That's why it accelerates faster than a Spark EV. [Jeff N]

Yes, but no joy, to my mind. GM changed the gearing to spin up the motor for extra performance in the Bolt. My motivation is to put in the complete '14 Spark powertrain and enjoy its unique low rpm style of driving where you never hear or feel the motor at all and still have bags of torque when you press the pedal.
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That's a very interesting comment. On both the Volt and my X, the only time I hear the motors at all is at low rpm when accelerating hard or regenerating hard.

I haven't driven a Bolt, but I would expect the same, so I'm not sure how this lower hearing is supposed to make the car quieter.

 

[SageBrush]

The Bolt has made a splash in the pure EV ghetto, but it isn't even well known outside that world

And in the EV world it is known as the EV one might have to consider if a Model 3 cannot be bought.

I think the only answered question is how much cheaper the Bolt has to be than the model 3 to steal sales. I'll guess upwards of $5,000, but then the car is clearly a money loser for GM and then by definition a compliance car.

 

[wycolo]

Electric motors being perfectly balanced beat the ICE at that type of vibration but can introduce rotational vibrations that vary with torque. In my '14 Spark I only hear the tread noise and tire drumming which completely mask any motor sounds. My MS has a noisy motor unit and the Roadster does not, but they both have the same high 'final ratio' feel to them as you go up and down the speed range. The '14 Spark on the other hand feels like driving a big car with a big engine that is stuck in 3rd gear (and 4th gear once you get going). There's nothing else like it, although the Fisker might be similar what with that big heavy-equipment drive unit.
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