Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[McRat]

Interesting. I was under the impression that Telsa uses the Bosch iBooster braking system. Same as what GM was/is using. Which would allow them to do regen on brakes if they wanted to (they don't). I didn't think the brakes were physically any different between the Bolt and the Tesla, just how the companies decide to actuate them in relation to regen.

From what I understand the Bolt will have the braking tech components of the 2017 Volt. Software will be different. If you've driven a Volt, you will know it's different than a Tesla system. It's not subtle.

 

[Saghost]

Unless the government is willing to allow the production of cheaper EV's (ain't happening in our lifetimes),

What does this sentence mean? How do you believe the government is preventing the introduction of cheaper EVs?

 

[McRat]

What does this sentence mean? How do you believe the government is preventing the introduction of cheaper EVs?

Cars are gaining weight and content rapidly. The crash standards climb, the mandated features climb, the protection from litigation falls, etc.

You simply cannot make a cheap car in the USA anymore. You as a citizen are not smart enough to make your own decisions, only lobbyists and lawyers are.

I could design a $12k EV. It would be illegal to sell one. It would have 2 seats, 2 airbags, a powertrain, 100hp and 20 kWh. It would be exempt from litigation unless true malice was proven. ie - The engineers wanted to hurt and kill people for fun. It would be kin to the 1963 VW Beetle.

This is the Elio idea, and it will fail. The legal community will not allow it.

Now I can walk, or ride a bicycle (definition of a dangerous mode of transportation), or ride a motorcycle, and make a personal choice on my level of acceptable risk. This is because homeless people, bicyclists, and drunken tattooed Harley bikers are all smarter than anybody who buys a car.

You car drivers are too dumb to make such decisions, ask your government if you are smart enough if you don't believe me.

 

[Saghost]

Cars are gaining weight and content rapidly. The crash standards climb, the mandated features climb, the protection from litigation falls, etc.

You simply cannot make a cheap car in the USA anymore. You as a citizen are not smart enough to make your own decisions, only lobbyists and lawyers are.

I could design a $12k EV. It would be illegal to sell one. It would have 2 seats, 2 airbags, a powertrain, 100hp and 20 kWh. It would be exempt from litigation unless true malice was proven. ie - The engineers wanted to hurt and kill people for fun.

This is the Elio idea, and it will fail. The legal community will not allow it.

Now I can walk, or ride a bicycle (definition of a dangerous mode of transportation), or ride a motorcycle, and make a personal choice on my level of acceptable risk.

You car drivers are too dumb to make such decisions, ask your government if you are smart enough if you don't believe me.

Okay. You've got something of a point here - as a society, we've become very fearful and remarkably risk averse to the risks that we see and measure - with the result that we're both greatly reducing effective productivity and increasing other risks in our effort to reduce the risks we're afraid of.

None of that is specific to EVs, though - and in a few years it'll be cheaper to build an EV that complies with all the rules than it will be to build an ICE car that does. So I don't agree with the bigger point you built out of this that EVs will always be toys for the rich.

 

[jgs]

For Americans, right now it's about $5000 of gasoline for 100,000 miles at 50% congested driving, 50% open highway.

Do your math from there. If an EV powertrain costs an average of $15,000 more than a gas car of identical size and features, and you get all your energy free, it will only take 300,000 miles to hit the break even. At 15k a year for working males, that's only 20 years of commuting.

Of course this analysis assumes the price of gas will be flat at today's near-historic lows for the next twenty years.

 

[McRat]

Okay. You've got something of a point here - as a society, we've become very fearful and remarkably risk averse to the risks that we see and measure - with the result that we're both greatly reducing effective productivity and increasing other risks in our effort to reduce the risks we're afraid of.

None of that is specific to EVs, though - and in a few years it'll be cheaper to build an EV that complies with all the rules than it will be to build an ICE car that does. So I don't agree with the bigger point you built out of this that EVs will always be toys for the rich.

I'm saying that just like a heavy duty truck, or a motorcycle, the safety rules have an exemption for EV's that do not exist for ICE cars.

It would not set a precedent. There are "neighborhood" EV's that are exempt already. Remember the "Think EV"?

We just will not do it. We think emissions, overcrowding, global warming, noise, etc are problems, just not as big of problem as our lack of driving skills.

Image, we pass a law Jan 1 to permit Eco EVs (freeway capable, airbag EVs, 2 seats). After Federal and and California rebates, they are $<4000 after taxes. Do you think they would sell to commuters?

EDIT - However, I would move to the No Accident Model of traffic laws. If your careless negligence causes the death of another, you go to prison. If your negligence causes injury, you get a massive fine and a suspended license. Treat a car like a firearm.

 

[Saghost]

Image, we pass a law Jan 1 to permit Eco EVs (freeway capable, airbag EVs, 2 seats). After Federal and and California rebates, they are $<4000 after taxes. Do you think they would sell to commuters?

You'd certainly get some sales. If folks perceive them as dangerous, you might not get as many as you're thinking, even if the real risk is rather small. And you know the Koch brothers would spend a bunch of money to spin them as unsafe.

There could be another angle... A lot of the crashworthiness and crumple zone stuff is focused on the front, on what if you run into something. What if you gave exceptions to cars that have substantial self driving capability - if the car is smart enough not to ever run into things, it doesn't need as much protection in case it ran into things...

 

[McRat]

Of course this analysis assumes the price of gas will be flat at today's near-historic lows for the next twenty years.

Yes, it could always go down as Saudi Arabia tried to monetize oil reserves that will never be used up, ever.

 

[WannabeOwner]

PEC just made an agreement to reduce oil production, which means gas prices will likely be increasing over the next few months

In UK the government made a commitment (in 1993) to raise tax on Gas prices (initially inflation + 3%, then inflation + 6%) as an incentive to wean everyone off Gas ("Fuel Duty Escalator"). I'm all for that (even though it was painful for me too) but sadly the government has not implemented it for the last 7 years - and they have not repealed the law either. Its seen as a "Tax gift" to everyone at Budget time each year ...

long term trends on wind and solar mean electric prices will likely drop slowly over the next several years

I see that one differently. Increasing renewables will reduce the demand for Oil, oversupply of Oil will drive prices down (its all very well cutting production, in order to drive price up, but that just causes your Customers to find a different solution - accelerate the pace of renewables rollout, or Frack / dig up Tar Sands etc.), so personally I don't see Crude oil prices rising inexorably, sadly. It will be interesting to see how long the current Cartel price-increases holds together.

 

[McRat]

You'd certainly get some sales. If folks perceive them as dangerous, you might not get as many as you're thinking, even if the real risk is rather small. And you know the Koch brothers would spend a bunch of money to spin them as unsafe.

There could be another angle... A lot of the crashworthiness and crumple zone stuff is focused on the front, on what if you run into something. What if you gave exceptions to cars that have substantial self driving capability - if the car is smart enough not to ever run into things, it doesn't need as much protection in case it ran into things...

Everybody knew the VW Beetle was a death trap. Unprotected gas tank in the front with passages to allow the gasoline into the cabin? An aircooled engine that caught fire on a hot day. The battery under a seat with metal springs that would eventually dead short? Headlights that were not more effective than a Bic Lighter? Brakes that would be better if they cut holes in the floor and did Fred Flintstone stops? Large ad campaign about how cheap they were to fix body damage? Built in oversteer with a CG than made a Jeep seem stable?

They sold like hotcakes.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/a2/0b/88/a20b88633b5a43785e08a52f672370e8.jpg
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/d3/84/76/d38476c0cf4ca7b48599b1711e054005.jpg

 

[Saghost]

I see that one differently. Increasing renewables will reduce the demand for Oil, oversupply of Oil will drive prices down (its all very well cutting production, in order to drive price up, but that just causes your Customers to find a different solution - accelerate the pace of renewables rollout, or Frack / dig up Tar Sands etc.), so personally I don't see Crude oil prices rising inexorably, sadly. It will be interesting to see how long the current Cartel price-increases holds together.

You're certainly correct that the rise of inexpensive renewables puts the oil industry in a bind.

The thing is, most of the cheap oil is gone - most places need ~$50 per barrel or more to break even on the extraction operations. OPEC is still somewhat of an exception to that - but that means that as long as they retain control, they can hold the price in that range indefinitely. They can't raise the price too much above that, or folks start doing things like the oil sands projects.

It'll be interesting to see how they react to a shrinking overall market, though. If OPEC breaks, you could see some rather cheap oil for a while like the last couple years.

I'm pretty sure they can't do much to slow or stop renewable adoption - certainly not if the government mandates remain in place.

 

[jgs]

Yes, it could always go down

Sure. Or it could go up for other reasons, enumeration of which would be tedious. Given it's near its post-embargo low (and not far off the pre-embargo low) I'm not going to be betting the farm on "go down". Anyway, I agree that justifying an EV, today, solely on cost of fuel doesn't make a whole lot of sense for most drivers. But I think it's goofy to try to claim foreknowledge about what prices will be doing decades hence.

 

[Jeff N]

For Americans, right now it's about $5000 of gasoline for 100,000 miles at 50% congested driving, 50% open highway.

Of course this analysis assumes the price of gas will be flat at today's near-historic lows for the next twenty years.

It also assumes that "American's, right now" are averaging 40 mpg in their cars which seems dubious. Maybe 25 mpg is more likely which would consume 4,000 gallons of gas in 100,000 miles for $8,000 at $2 per gallon.

At $4 per gallon it would balance the assumed ~$15,000 added cost of a BEV drivetrain. Non-plugin hybrids bridge that mpg vs manufacturing cost gap.

So, a lot of this hinges on the price of gasoline -- either it's raw commercial price set largely by international petroleum supply vs demand or with the added component of future substantial carbon taxes.

As others have noted, EV drivetrain costs are dropping rapidly however battery capacity and EV range expectations are rising. The cost of typical gas drivetrains is also rising due to higher mpg targets and emissions regulations.

 

[RobStark]

Not to be taken as an insult, but what the newest FWD you've taken past the limits of traction?

According to Car and Driver 2017 Camry I4 0-60 is 8.0 seconds. Slow.

2017 Impala I4 0-60 is 8.7 seconds to 60. Slower.

Not Prius 10.2 seconds but slow.


Last car I experienced torque steer? The tendency of front wheel drive cars to have the front wheels go straight when in a turn after punching the go pedal( I mean the gas)?.

A rented 2017 Buick LaCrosse. An Impala platform mate.

 

[McRat]

According to Car and Driver 2017 Camry I4 0-60 is 8.0 seconds. Slow.

2017 Impala I4 0-60 is 8.7 seconds to 60. Slower.

Not Prius 10.2 seconds but slow.


Last car I experienced torque steer? The tendency of front wheel drive cars to have the front wheels go straight when in a turn after punching the go pedal( I mean the gas)?.

A rented 2017 Buick LaCrosse. An Impala platform mate.

The only road test I could find for an I4 Camry = 2017 Toyota Camry XSE I-4 First Test Review - Motor Trend

 

[diamond.g]

For Americans, right now it's about $5000 of gasoline for 100,000 miles at 50% congested driving, 50% open highway.

Do your math from there. If an EV powertrain costs an average of $15,000 more than a gas car of identical size and features, and you get all your energy free, it will only take 300,000 miles to hit the break even. At 15k a year for working males, that's only 20 years of commuting.

There is a REASON Elon Musk said EV's must be compelling. Financially, they are irresponsible for most Americans.

Unless the government is willing to allow the production of cheaper EV's (ain't happening in our lifetimes), widespread adoption will be from the upper middle class to the wealthy. It's more productive to buy solar power arrays than EV's with the money if you are truly Green.

The way I see it is electromotive power is a luxury feature. I'm willing to pay more for it. It's a better technology in terms of the driving experience.

Assuming oil prices stay low.

From what I understand the Bolt will have the braking tech components of the 2017 Volt. Software will be different. If you've driven a Volt, you will know it's different than a Tesla system. It's not subtle.

I know. I am looking to trade my TDI for a 2013/2014 Volt some time this month or next. The Volt was like driving a regular car. Haven't test drive a Tesla yet, but understand the difference.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Impala is Large Front Wheel Drive Car. Underpowered in 4cyl version. Torque Steer in V6 Version.
Model S is a Large high performance Rear Wheel Drive Car.

Impala Hip room Front 54.90 " , Rear 54.10 "
Model S Hip room Front 55.0", Rear 54.7"


Impala Shoulder Room Front 57.90", Rear 56.90"
Model S Shoulder room Front 57.7", Rear 55.0"


Model S low slung design for superior aerodynamics and swoopy rear does take some interior volume but Impala is not a 112% bigger where it counts the most.

You picked a car classified as a compact, midsize, and large car.

Go back and compare these cars in hip room and shoulder room.

Model S is a low slung car eliminating much useless space above and around your head.

It is only an advantage for Corolla Civic and Cruze if your are over 6' tall,skinny and are sitting in the rear seat. Or if you want to transport something that specifically fits under the higher hatch area of the Cruze or Civic hatchback.

I've had this discussion with McRat before about EPA size classes: basically the market doesn't shop using them. The Corolla, Civic, Cruze are considered compact cars, despite them hitting different EPA classes based on interior and cargo volume. His examples are actually perfect examples: the Civic and Corolla are cross shopped frequently under the "compact" class, even if the EPA rates them as different size classes.

You hit the nail in the head about where most compacts and subcompacts have improved, which is rear headroom and legroom by a higher roofline and adjusting wheelbase and the seating position. However, it still won't replicate a true full sized car in terms of hip and shoulder room, which can be felt even if you are a relatively short person.

 

[wdolson]

Got it, thanks.

So MS P90D is 90-ish MPGe and maybe a similar Gas Sedan is 30 MPG (US gallon size)

I can figure out the price of a gallon of gas - including converting MPG to Imperial gallons for my calcs over here.

I'll have a go at figuring out the electricity cost of the MPGe, I'd be grateful for confirmation I've got this right

I know the price of my electricity per unit (which is a kWh over here) - as a rough average (various "deals" available!!) that would be 0.15 per unit daytime and 0.08 per unit off-peak

From Wiki it looks like 100 mpg-e is 34 kW·h/100 miles, and a value for 90 mpg-e is 37 kW·h/100 miles. So to drive the 90 miles, in a 90 MPGe EV, I would use 90 / 100 * 37 kWh ? That would be @ 0.15 per unit daytime and 0.08 per unit off-peak - so somewhere between 5.00 and 2.66 for the 90 miles

A 30 MPG Gas car would be about 36 miles per Imperial gallon. Petrol here is, say 1.20 per litre, so 5.45 per imperial gallon, so to drive the same 90 miles as a 90 MPGe MS P90D would cost (90 / 30) * 5.45 = 16.35 for gas

3.27x more expensive than day-rate electrify and 6.15x more than off-peak

Do my sums look about right? Is there an easier way to get from price of electricity to a comparative Gas figure?

Here is the article with my spreadsheet table
Cost Comparison EVs vs ICE

I used American gallons and miles. If you want the spreadsheet I can send it to you. It would be fairly easy to convert to liters and Km. All the final numbers are from formulas so just tweak the formulas as needed.

In any case, using the EPA ratings it would cost $0.026 per mile for a 90D using the Washington electric rates. At even $2.00/gallon for gas, which is cheaper than it is now, a 33 mpg ICE car would cost $0.06 per mile. About 2.5X more. At current gas prices it's 3-4X more.

 

[wdolson]

For Americans, right now it's about $5000 of gasoline for 100,000 miles at 50% congested driving, 50% open highway.

Do your math from there. If an EV powertrain costs an average of $15,000 more than a gas car of identical size and features, and you get all your energy free, it will only take 300,000 miles to hit the break even. At 15k a year for working males, that's only 20 years of commuting.

There is a REASON Elon Musk said EV's must be compelling. Financially, they are irresponsible for most Americans.

Unless the government is willing to allow the production of cheaper EV's (ain't happening in our lifetimes), widespread adoption will be from the upper middle class to the wealthy. It's more productive to buy solar power arrays than EV's with the money if you are truly Green.

The way I see it is electromotive power is a luxury feature. I'm willing to pay more for it. It's a better technology in terms of the driving experience.

That's $0.05 a mile. At $2.50 a gallon for gasoline, that's getting 50 mpg. With the large number of pickups dragging down the average, the average MPG for the US light vehicle fleet in 2014 was 21.4 mpg. The Department of Transportation breaks down new vehicles into cars and trucks. Cars average 36.4 mpg and light trucks 26.3 mpg.

So the cost to drive 100,000 miles is closer to $10,000 at current gas prices with the current US fleet. If they go back up, it could easily be 50% more in a year or two. EVs do cost more than ICE cars and they are a luxury upgrade now. As the price of batteries fall, the cost premium is going to approach parity over time. We aren't quite there yet, but the Model 3 is going to push than envelope between the lower cost of "fuel" and the lower cost of maintenance.

The Bolt isn't there though. It's cheaper per KWh than most EVs produced thus far, but it's still an $18K GM econo box car with a $19K premium for an electric drive train. The Model 3 will still be a premium over equivalent cars. A stripped Model 3 will be on par with a $25K ICE as far as size and features. Still a premium, but only about $10K.

 

[wdolson]

Yes, it could always go down as Saudi Arabia tried to monetize oil reserves that will never be used up, ever.

Saudi's oil reserves are in terminal decline. They aren't admitting it, but according to oil professionals who know the signs, the Saudis are going to more effort to get oil out of the ground than they used to, which is a clear sign their reserves are beginning to go.

Everybody knew the VW Beetle was a death trap. Unprotected gas tank in the front with passages to allow the gasoline into the cabin? An aircooled engine that caught fire on a hot day. The battery under a seat with metal springs that would eventually dead short? Headlights that were not more effective than a Bic Lighter? Brakes that would be better if they cut holes in the floor and did Fred Flintstone stops? Large ad campaign about how cheap they were to fix body damage? Built in oversteer with a CG than made a Jeep seem stable?

They sold like hotcakes.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/a2/0b/88/a20b88633b5a43785e08a52f672370e8.jpg
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/d3/84/76/d38476c0cf4ca7b48599b1711e054005.jpg

People are more risk adverse than they used to be. When the VW Bug sold well nobody had ever heard of a bicycle helmet except for racers who wanted better aerodynamics and kids were allowed to walk home from school, nobody ever thought a parent would be arrested for child endangerment for allowing their kids to do so, but there have been a couple of cases.

There are some small EVs in development that will be sold as motorcycles to get around the regulations for car safety. They are narrow like a motorcycle, but have a stabilization system like a Segway to keep them upright.

There are also cars out there like Smart cars which do meet the safety standards, but are much smaller than standard cars. Daimler is losing its shirt over that division. Sales are terrible world-wide. Maybe it's the price-point, but not many consumers seem to want a vehicle that small, even in Europe where they are well suited to small city streets.