InTheShadows
Active Member
You know the Detroit auto show is that week too
Let's just say I will has a sad if the finalized model X is not revealed there.
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You know the Detroit auto show is that week too
Let's just say I will has a sad if the finalized model X is not revealed there.
I believe Model X total reservations should be very close to 10k now based on the total reservation tally (signatures and general production).
Does anyone think that a catalyst will be Tesla publishing 10k Model X reservations or publishing the number of X reservations (greater than 10k) when they show the finalized version of the X (presumably very soon)?
Also, if/when they publish the number of reservations I wonder if they will say how many are existing Model S owners? I would be curious to know and how the market might interpret that metric (better to show high customer retention based off of the S or better to show new Tesla vehicle owners that the SUV appeals to more than the sedan)
I see we are thinking along the same line here - I posted something very similar in the Social Chat thread a few hours before you. (Maybe that wasn't the right thread for this...)
Anyway, I think that even if our unofficial tally is not 100% accurate, it surely indicates Tesla is very close to that milestone. They can and - in my opinion - should use this as a PR opportunity for Model X, and naturally this will be a catalyst to TSLA as well. (Just not sure how big and how long lasting).
Assuming they get to 10k by mid January, they could do a press release during the 2nd week of the month to start the hype about the Model X production version reveal at the Detroit Motor Show. Alternativley, they could make the announcement part of the reveal in Motor City. (I think it is pretty much the consensus here at TMC, that the final revision of X will debut at the Motor Show, right?)
If they don't get to 10k by then, or for whatever reason, the production version will not be shown in Detroit, I expect the 10k announcement to be part of the Q4 2013/2014 projection materials in February.
A while ago Tesla made a decision not to reveal the reservation count. They made announcement about this decision during one of the quarterly ER calls. In fact the nay sayer's choir went into the crescendo after this announcement. It is unlikely that Tesla will change this policy now.
Andrea James (Doughertys) and Dan Galves (Deutche Bank) have been conspicuously quiet since the NHTSA announced their safety rating for the 2014 Model S. In the immediate future I'm expecting a number of analysts to begin making new year resolutions. Most assuredly, they will include Model X reservations. Here's to a great New Year.
I understand why they don't want to get into the business of regulalry releasing exact figures. With seasonal changes, cancellations, etc. they would find themselves having to explain why the rate is not growing like it used to at certain times, leading to speculation, misinterpretation, link-bait headlines, etc.
However saying they have passed the 10k reservation thershold could still be in the cards. As they are gearing up for Model X production, some good PR doesn't hurt to keep the reservations coming in.
I'm not sure I like the ethics of Apple senior management. Selling stuff at 3 times the parts price, manufactured by 12 year old Chinese kids until they drop dead on the factory floor... please tell me Tesla is not importing Apple ethics/culture as well.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
You sell at the margins that equals the greatest profits. It has nothing to do with ethics.
Tesla currently sells at 21% profit margin but goal as 25%. GM is about 3.5% margin. Mercedes Benz 7.8%
If Elon could sell at 300% profit margin at current volume I am sure he would.
A partisan of János Kádár ?
Tesla (Elon and George) have specifically stated they do NOT take advantage of various situations to increase margins. They have taken great pains to show they make exactly the same margin in each country even though in some they could charge much more.
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Tesla is a paradigm for robotic manufacturing. As Tesla expands internationally they will certainly build facilities throughout the globe to maximize efficiencies and deliveries. The talent pool of the Silicon Valley will serve to establish a industry standard, robotic manufacturing of automobiles.
First of all, that last remark was totally uncalled for... You didn't like my comment, read my country on my profile, and labelled me a communist based on what political system was in my country 25 years ago when I was busy learning the alphabet. Classy.
On topic... I do not have a problem with selling something at a 300% profit margin if people buy it for that much. But if you check the teardowns isupply does, you'll know that e.g. the iPhone 5 has an estimated Bill of Materials of 200 Dollars with manufacturing costs of about 8 Dollars. Official retail price? 650-800 depending on RAM size. Now as I said, if people buy it, why not, however, unless you have been living under a rock, you've also read the reports for years about the conditions, worker suicides and child laborers at Apple's (outsourced) manufacturing sites in China. At the same time they are building a 5 Billion Dollar UFO for their US staff.
Now, I know there is a lot more to costs than BOM and manufacturing costs, but I do not think you have to be a communist to think that maybe Apple should be Ok with paying 18 instead of 8 Dollars for manufactuting, and swallow the horrific consequence of only making 400-550 per phone.
All I was saying is that I hope the latest series of Apple management hires does not mean Tesla will become a company like that.
Norse
Active Member
Seriously?
+1! And since Tesla want to have a profile of changing the world for the better they will need to keep it clean. There are still alot of slaves in Asia, and we as consumers and shareholders should be aware of this.
Agree, excellent hire and hopefully more to come. As one that IS sure about the ethics of both Apple and Tesla senior management. I hope we are seeing a direct correlation of both talent and ethics between the two companies. Couldn't be happier with both
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think you need to read a bit more than just the negative headlines to dig to the deeper story here. I've followed Apple for a while and use many of their products and I have checked a bit more into this. Apple has a very strict policy on its suppliers and does perform random inspections etc. Did you for example know that any supplier and their subcontractor is prohibited from using child labor. If child labor usage is found the company in question has to send the child to school paying 100% of the childs tuition costs as well as keep sending the childs salary to the parents for the duration as well as face a fine from Apple. If this is not done, then contract with that company is terminated on the spot. Apple is almost the only company that publishes voluntarily reports of its supply lines and their usage. The full supply line can be audited and Apple does a lot of work in making sure that the conditions are above average in comparison. At the same time Apple purchases the supply and manufacturing from external partners and the best they can do is regulate the conditions that they can. Do you really think that if Apple paid 2x the cost of the manufacturing that Foxconn would give its workers any more salaries?
And I actually hate the fact that people without question always target Apple with this while ALL electronics that are manufactured in China etc are done in those conditions due to local ways of life. Yet the few companies that actually try to shed light on this and force for better conditions are the ones targeted and thrown with mud just because they are big and rich. So I do hope that hiring a manufacturing expert from Apple brings also high standards for supply lines to Tesla because it's hard to find a better example of a company that at least attempts to improve conditions.
Ok, I kind of regret maikng that comment now beacuse it is taking the thread way off track, which was not my intention. Also, it is only fair to admit that Apple's manufacturing policy is not even my biggest issue with them. Let's just say, I'm not a fan - but the details do not belong to this thread.
Still, just to reply to your argument on how wonderful Apple's programs are to deal with the situation, I think if they really wanted to make a difference they would simply make it clear that if their audits find more issues like that, they will take their business elswhere. Of course they will never do that, and a recent article in Forbes summarizes why it is so. (Hint it is not beacuse of the extra 4 dollars it would cost them to assemble a phone in the USA, but has something to do with US corporate tax...)
I agree that Apple may be getting more attention than others, but when you make 200-300% on on every product that rolls off your factory, it is to be expected.
Anyway, Elon and Co did a pretty damn good job so far without my HR advice, so I'm just going to have to trust them on this one too.
Back ON topic... I expect the next catalysts for early 2014 to be the NTHSA "all good" report, any Model X related events/announcements in Detorit or during the earnings report, and of course the Q4 report and (more importantly) the 2014 projections in February. I am cautiously optimistic on Model X seeing how they are about to order new production equipment already (California tax news), resolve battery issues (Panasonic deal) and are about to finalize and show the production design (Detorit?). If production was to start even just a few months earlier than Q4, that would be a big boost to TSLA I think.
I am a bit worried though about the 2014 numbers. Not that they will not be good, but i started seeing some very optimistic 40k and even some unrealistic 56k cars produced in the media already. I expect a 30-35k target to be announced by Tesla: 30k Model S (assuming the get to 600 cars/week mid year and 800 by the end of 2014) + whatever they think they can do on X. However if the media/analysts - deliberatley or not - set expectations way too high, we might end up with a repeat of Q3 where a good report is followed by a stock price crash.
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Tesla is already producing 600/cars per week, according to several posts I've seen on TMC. According to Capitalist Oppressor (posting on SA), "Elon has already mentioned that his new expectation for the Model S in 2014 is ~50k units."
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Why Is Almost Everybody In The Auto Industry Afraid Of Tesla Motors? - Seeking Alpha
Does anyone know where Elon mentioned that? (I believe CapOp, but I'd like the link.)
You are right about already producing 600 cars, I forgot about that interview. Still, 600x50 weeks (deducting 2 weeks for holidays, etc.) is 30k, and 800x50 (800 being their target for end of 2014) is 40k. So that puts us between 30-40k Model Ses for next year.
Unless they are pushing production even further... but that would need to be a pretty agressive ramp. Not that I would mind seeing an official projecton of 50k Model Ses + 3-5k Model Xes. :tongue:
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