Bob Lutz has no faith in Tesla

[McMuggets]

I think people like Lutz generally understand that mass production will reduce costs, but when it come to batteries they don't seem to get that every increase in battery capacity also ends up cutting cost, because it cuts the amount of raw materials needed for each battery pack

the roadster pack has almost the same amount of lithium cobalt ect as the Model S pack but, the Model S has 85kWh of storage

Are you kidding me?! Really, I mean we are talking about the one-man-show Bob Lutz here, he must be way smarter than all the people at Panasonic who've invested heavily into the Gigafactory and definitely smarter than the people at Tesla including Elon Musk himself. I'll bet lithium batteries are the same price today per kWh as they were 20 years ago.... oh wait.... errr..... never mind. Bob Lutz for president!

By the way, I like your listed location "the dude". Definitely the best place to get internet reception on that rock.

 

[renim]

Not sure how that applies to the lithium carbonate market. Tesla right now is talking directly with local mines in Nevada and the mines there have indicated they are the first to do so. I would imagine buying at a mine directly (and shipping everything yourself) would have some cost savings vs. buying in the commodity market from a supplier (that has its own margins built in).

It applies to the Nickel market, which is the highest value part of Tesla NCA based battery. I used to work at a couple of Nickel mines.

The are very good reasons to talk direct to a miner, cost is not one of them, LME grade Nickel metal is not sold below LME price.

The simple way to reduce the price paid for Nickel is to either
part own the mine
part finance the mine
both ways are well practiced by the Japanese

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Are you kidding me?! Really, I mean we are talking about the one-man-show Bob Lutz here, he must be way smarter than all the people at Panasonic who've invested heavily into the Gigafactory and definitely smarter than the people at Tesla including Elon Musk himself. I'll bet lithium batteries are the same price today per kWh as they were 20 years ago.... oh wait.... errr..... never mind. Bob Lutz for president!

By the way, I like your listed location "the dude". Definitely the best place to get internet reception on that rock.

you do realise that is the opposite of what Bob Lutz says.

what Bob Lutz says in this video is that everybody can get the same costs because whether its 2 lines or 10 lines, the input costs are the sames and the labour costs are negligible.

Why do you think Japan has lost so much Li-ion market share to the Koreans?
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/article/10201/competitive-edge-chinese-battery-material-manufacturers-sweeping-market

 

[JRP3]

what Bob Lutz says in this video is that everybody can get the same costs because whether its 2 lines or 10 lines, the input costs are the sames and the labour costs are negligible.

If that's true why are battery costs so much higher than materials cost, and why do production costs seem to vary across the industry?

 

[the dude]

you do realise that is the opposite of what Bob Lutz says.

what Bob Lutz says in this video is that everybody can get the same costs because whether its 2 lines or 10 lines, the input costs are the sames and the labour costs are negligible.

Why do you think Japan has lost so much Li-ion market share to the Koreans?
Competitive Edge: Chinese Battery Material Manufacturers Sweeping the Market | BusinessKorea

but it thats the case then why have they all failed to make a Model S competitor

the interesting question for me is how big will Tesla get, before GM, Toyota, ect wake up and build their own gigafactory and supercharger network

so far only Nissan seem to understand electric cars but even they need to do more IMO

 

[renim]

If that's true why are battery costs so much higher than materials cost, and why do production costs seem to vary across the industry?

amortization

even a small Chinese manufacturer can produce CE 18650 cells at or below wholesale market rates, otherwise they go bankrupt competing against the Koreans and the Japanese. Depending on cell capacity and exchange rates, wholesale prices are probably now around 60 cents per Ah, which would be about 1/2 the price for the legion of less standardized prismatic cells. Li ion cells are such a small cost of an electronics device, that doubling the cost of a cell, just to optimize its fit, is good market practice.

what really costs money is the continual development without sufficient amortization, that really hurts and its why the DIN automotive cells will continue for a long time to cost significantly above their steady competitors. Just how much do you think is Nissan LEAFs direct cost of a cell, compared to BMW i3?

 

[scaesare]

As the single largest company incorporating Li-ion batteries in to their product...

...and having worked closely with one of the largest battery suppliers to develop a custom chemistry/configuration...

...and having started from the ground-up to build a supply chain for an auto company...

...and having figured out how dramatically cut costs in another manufacturing industry by analyzing materials costs...

...I'm gonna go with Musk on this one.

 

[renim]

but it thats the case then why have they all failed to make a Model S competitor

thats a great question, my idea is that car companies are deeply ingrained in combustion motors and do not want to be
energy providers - wether petrol stations or electricity stations
cell retailers or cell manufacturers
car companies hate providing revenue to others when the car company gets the liability. and they see a whopping big battery as revenue to the outside world, but liability to the mothership.
I would also suggest, an historic association with golf carts didn't help matters either

 

[JER]

Lutz	Reality
Back-up storage "around for hundreds of years" (This gem less than 10 seconds into the interview.)	Lead-acic battery ~ 150 y First commercial electricity utility ~ 130 y National electricity grids ~ 90 y Solid state inverters ~ 40 y
Lead acid "cheapest and most effective" backup system	"There is currently no single solution that is better than another for all situations, but lithium-ion systems offer better cost of ownership in a number of situations, specifically hot climates, despite the higher initial cost." Source: http://www.altenergymag.com/content.php?post_type=1884
"[Elon] has yet to turn a profit on the car business"	Model S gross margin: ~28% Profits spent on growth and future product development
"The highest cost in a lithium ion battery is not the assembly labour, it's the raw materials, and everyone pays the same"	Processed material cost at Gigafactory: $69 / kWh (est.) Cost for assembled cells: Market: ~$300-700 / kWh Panasonic > Tesla: ~180$ / kWh
[blithering on about lithium supply]	Bottleneck material for high-performance lithium ion cells is cobalt.
"... boy, I don't see it."	Boy, he doesn't see it.

 

[AudubonB]

Mr Lutz on Tesla: "...has yet to turn a profit on the car business".

General Motors, on the other hand, has nicely more than a century of experience in this field. Their cumulative profits over the past fifteen years are...wait for it...Negative $51.03 BILLION.*

*These are preliminary data for 2000 through 2014; I am still awaiting a few more numbers before this is final. Please don't re-use until (a) I get the more accurate numbers (won't change by much), or (b) you've done your own homework. The gist of the material stands, however.

 

[McMuggets]

It applies to the Nickel market, which is the highest value part of Tesla NCA based battery. I used to work at a couple of Nickel mines.

The are very good reasons to talk direct to a miner, cost is not one of them, LME grade Nickel metal is not sold below LME price.

The simple way to reduce the price paid for Nickel is to either
part own the mine
part finance the mine
both ways are well practiced by the Japanese

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you do realise that is the opposite of what Bob Lutz says.

what Bob Lutz says in this video is that everybody can get the same costs because whether its 2 lines or 10 lines, the input costs are the sames and the labour costs are negligible.

Why do you think Japan has lost so much Li-ion market share to the Koreans?
Competitive Edge: Chinese Battery Material Manufacturers Sweeping the Market | BusinessKorea

You do realize that when SpaceX started up people like Boeing and Lockheed and even NASA themselves couldn't believe that they could do launches, in newer rockets, built in America, for cheaper than the Russians with 1970s technology right? Everyone said costs were going to be at least higher than Russians, but SpaceX did it with American workers paying American wages. They've gotten the cost of launches down so much it's alarming and a big slap in the face to Boeing and Lockheed, etc.

Bob Lutz saying Tesla batteries are nothing special because everyone else can do the same means he's got the same old-fashioned thinking as the rest of the establishment. Let's see the labour costs of the Gigafactory once it is built and automation is put in. Let's see how much cheaper the batteries can be made by Tesla vs. Ford,GM,BMW, etc. And then Bob Lutz can say his piece to correct himself.