Automakers Go Electric, Even if Gas Is Cheap

[ohmman]

NYTimes: Log In - The New York Times

Summary: Traditional automakers are prioritizing electric vehicles in order to get the average fuel economy of their fleet up to mandated levels, especially in the face of Americans purchasing more trucks and SUVs in 2015. ZEV credits also play into their decision making. No discussion of how it might just make sense because it's a superior product.

 

[Electric700]

Thanks for the link. This is interesting:

"While American consumers were taking advantage of low gas prices to buy trucks and sport utility vehicles in large numbers..."

Tesla has the SUV and sedan segments covered now. Perhaps the Tesla Model Y will be a much-needed truck!

 

[valakos]

Low oil is irrelevant to the Model X

Thanks for the link. This is interesting:

"While American consumers were taking advantage of low gas prices to buy trucks and sport utility vehicles in large numbers..."

Tesla has the SUV and sedan segments covered now. Perhaps the Tesla Model Y will be a much-needed truck!

If anything, increase in demand for SUVs will increase demand for Model X - Tesla's biggest issue is getting them out the factory fast enough. Without a DOUBT I see Porshe Cayanne as suffering the most from the X ramp - most people who buy them are not too bright and easily swayed by gimmicks such as falcon wing doors which are a marketing tool made in heaven. Once X's are rolled out across the US and falcon wing doors are opened in shopping plazas and malls in the US, demand for the X will definitely eat into the Cayanne sales since they "have to have the latest and greatest" regardless of oil prices (these people do not care how much gas costs as the Cayanne is ridiculously priced).

Couple that with that fact that Tesla's autopilot is leaps and bounds more sophisticated than anything any of the German auto makers offer (summon feature just introduced) it will be the "must have" SUV. The falcon wing doors however are the X's biggest marketing tool, it will be VERY interesting to see how X sales affect the Cayanne (all depends on X ramping up if they do, Porshe will feel the pain)

 

[Mike Strauss]

at least it helps the planet!

 

[FlatSix911]

I agree with your assessment on the impact to Porsche with the Model X. Just look at how the Panamera sales tanked as the Model S was introduced.

If anything, increase in demand for SUVs will increase demand for Model X - Tesla's biggest issue is getting them out the factory fast enough. Without a DOUBT I see Porshe Cayanne as suffering the most from the X ramp - most people who buy them are not too bright and easily swayed by gimmicks such as falcon wing doors which are a marketing tool made in heaven. Once X's are rolled out across the US and falcon wing doors are opened in shopping plazas and malls in the US, demand for the X will definitely eat into the Cayanne sales since they "have to have the latest and greatest" regardless of oil prices (these people do not care how much gas costs as the Cayanne is ridiculously priced).

Couple that with that fact that Tesla's autopilot is leaps and bounds more sophisticated than anything any of the German auto makers offer (summon feature just introduced) it will be the "must have" SUV. The falcon wing doors however are the X's biggest marketing tool, it will be VERY interesting to see how X sales affect the Cayanne (all depends on X ramping up if they do, Porshe will feel the pain)

 

[asus389]

When I see a hybrid car I think of those old pictures of steamships from the late 19th century. They still put sails on them "just in case". Its always more complicated and costly to engineer and maintain two powertrains instead of one. Hybrid cars will go the way of steam-sail boats very quickly once electric cars get cheap enough. The benefits of the simplicity of pure EVs are too compelling.

 

[Rockster]

My stepbrother had a Prius and its battery died just out of warranty. He said he'd never have another hybrid again because it was the worst of both worlds: oil changes, gasoline, and other ICE maintenance PLUS an afterthought battery that wasn't properly managed. He's yearning for a Tesla now.

 

[FlatSix911]

My stepbrother had a Prius and its battery died just out of warranty. He said he'd never have another hybrid again because it was the worst of both worlds: oil changes, gasoline, and other ICE maintenance PLUS an afterthought battery that wasn't properly managed. He's yearning for a Tesla now.

Did he contact Toyota and request a goodwill battery replacement? I understand that this was a class action case with the Prius.

 

[MSEV]

When I see a hybrid car I think of those old pictures of steamships from the late 19th century. They still put sails on them "just in case". Its always more complicated and costly to engineer and maintain two powertrains instead of one. Hybrid cars will go the way of steam-sail boats very quickly once electric cars get cheap enough. The benefits of the simplicity of pure EVs are too compelling.

I agree with you but I think there are other factors, like the charging infrastructure, that still have problems. In cold/bad weather my 199 mi trip between superchargers is too far and many would not buy a car that can't just get its required resources nearby. Fortunately for me, there are two CHAdeMO chargers on my long route and they are almost a supercharger, so things are better now that I have the CHAdeMO adapter. I would not go back, but many of my friends are not ready for an EV because of its weakness (long distance can be one right now and the time needed to travel when there are not superchargers).

 

[igotzzoom]

The only reason most mainstream auto brands are doing electrics is because of government mandates. Their vested interest is in the status quo. If customers are buying trucks and SUVs, that's what they want to build. Oil and fuel is dirt cheap now, but I've been around long enough to see it as low as $0.76, and as high as $4.00+ a gallon. The petro-fueled party isn't going to last forever.

 

[3mp_kwh]

The only reason most mainstream auto brands are doing electrics is because of government mandates.

In this vid, a Reuters analyst asks Carlos Ghosn about the upcoming cheap gas and mandates collision, in the U.S. His response was excellent, in likening it to Europe's sponsorship of diesel and diesel's resulting ~50% penetration in Europe.

About 7:30 into the video:
Carlos Ghosn: Fiat Taking Risky Stand On EVs, Fight Is On Against Chevy Bolt - Inside EVs

Probably not what Reuters, Kevin Allison, was looking for.

 

[WMAC]

I really like Ghosn. I wish they had taken Tesla's approach and offered a very expensive Infinity to go up against the Model S first instead of the LEAF. Although, I am also very glad they did the LEAF.

In this vid, a Reuters analyst asks Carlos Ghosn about the upcoming cheap gas and mandates collision, in the U.S. His response was excellent, in likening it to Europe's sponsorship of diesel and diesel's resulting ~50% penetration in Europe.

About 7:30 into the video:
Carlos Ghosn: Fiat Taking Risky Stand On EVs, Fight Is On Against Chevy Bolt - Inside EVs

Probably not what Reuters, Kevin Allison, was looking for.

 

[igotzzoom]

Yep. Everyone thinks diesel was huge in Europe since the inception of the automobile, but the major shift happened about 25 years ago, when governments heavily subsidized diesel fuel over gasoline, that's when the market percentages went from 10-20 percent to 50-60 percent. I think the difference with EVs, as Ghosn alluded to, is improvement in the charging infrastructure, and longer-range batteries.