Auto Express Interview with Moto Chief Executive

[Masklin]

There’s an interesting interview with the Moto service station chief executive in the 21st July - 1st August Auto Express regarding motorway charging infrastructure and power requirements.

Based on their projections that a quarter to a third of cars visiting Moto sites in 2030 will likely be electric, he reckons that by that date he will need 2,500 ultra-rapid chargers on Moto sites, requiring 240 megawatts of power annually to dispense. That power requirement being the equivalent of 25% of the power output of an average sized nuclear power station. Just for Moto.

Given the struggles Moto have had installing just six ultra-rapid chargers at their sites (2030 estimate is a minimum of 30 to 40 at each site) and the government’s apparent lack of understanding of what will be required infrastructure and power wise going forward, the outlook is queues…

Time will tell I suppose.

 

[M1tch]

Given the media’s scaremongering about being our nations ability to be able to keep lights on in the winter, we have no chance. None. At all.

 

[tsh2]

I use 12 hours of rapid charging in a year (mostly in Europe, so a massive over-estimate for UK typical trips). That is (roughly) one rapid per 1000 vehicles? at 10,000,000 EVs on the road, it makes 10,000 rapids total. However, if I look at my UK supercharging, it comes to 2 hours a year and out of the 3 vehicles in our household, mine is the only one used for long trips - which makes the estimate look high. (and I'm averaging 70kW charging for the UK trips, not 100)

 

[yessuz]

There’s an interesting interview with the Moto service station chief executive in the 21st July - 1st August Auto Express regarding motorway charging infrastructure and power requirements.

Based on their projections that a quarter to a third of cars visiting Moto sites in 2030 will likely be electric, he reckons that by that date he will need 2,500 ultra-rapid chargers on Moto sites, requiring 240 megawatts of power annually to dispense. That power requirement being the equivalent of 25% of the power output of an average sized nuclear power station. Just for Moto.

Given the struggles Moto have had installing just six ultra-rapid chargers at their sites (2030 estimate is a minimum of 30 to 40 at each site) and the government’s apparent lack of understanding of what will be required infrastructure and power wise going forward, the outlook is queues…

Time will tell I suppose.

240 MW is roughly half of 1 Nuclear Unit generation. But if you put it "annually" - then it is 240 MWh, which does not seem right.

 

[Mrklaw]

cross posting from another forum but I got a reply from ofgem on the issue of power improvements to MSAs.

There are 48 MSAs that will be supported by GRS projects. Of those 48 only 1 has thus far been completed and energised on the DNO and MSA side.

There are 33 MSAs that we expect to be completed and energised in 2023 and a further 5 projects completed and energised by March 2024. It was always understood that GRS schemes may be completed within the first year of the RIIO-ED2 price control period, which started on 1st April 2023. There is still work that the MSAs are responsible for when the DNO work is complete, so it’s not always a guarantee that when the DNO work is done you’ll immediately see EV chargers in situ.

There are 9 GRS MSA projects that have been deferred beyond March 2024. These delays are due to a variety of delays in planning consent, land consent and land acquisition.

We receive quarterly updates from DNOs on the status of all their GRS projects.

so things are moving. These are obviously planning moves based on current demand so may need further adjustments before 2030, but it should help reinforce MSAs in particular.

The installers have shown IMO already this year they're ready and willing to install chargers if power is available, so I'm less worried about that

 

[Mrklaw]

I use 12 hours of rapid charging in a year (mostly in Europe, so a massive over-estimate for UK typical trips). That is (roughly) one rapid per 1000 vehicles? at 10,000,000 EVs on the road, it makes 10,000 rapids total. However, if I look at my UK supercharging, it comes to 2 hours a year and out of the 3 vehicles in our household, mine is the only one used for long trips - which makes the estimate look high. (and I'm averaging 70kW charging for the UK trips, not 100)

I'm curious on moto figures too. They will absolutely have througput numbers so they know how many people visit. They probably also know how many fill up at their petrol stations. Some combination of that data plus some estimation gets them to the numbers they're quoting.

Hopefully they've considered that any MSAs near someones trip start may not need a charge even if you're stopping for a coffee/kids need a wee. And potentially likewise on return legs depndgin on destination charger availability.

I'd love to see the modelling.

 

[Adopado]

I'm curious on moto figures too. They will absolutely have througput numbers so they know how many people visit. They probably also know how many fill up at their petrol stations. Some combination of that data plus some estimation gets them to the numbers they're quoting.

Hopefully they've considered that any MSAs near someones trip start may not need a charge even if you're stopping for a coffee/kids need a wee. And potentially likewise on return legs depndgin on destination charger availability.

I'd love to see the modelling.

Yes, they may have just assumed that a third of the number of cars they presently see in their car parks will be EVs and that they will all need to charge. In theory they should have better data than we have ... but it's equally possible it's been worked out on the back of a fag packet without a full appreciation of how this is going to pan out.

 

[Masklin]

Just double checked to make sure I hadn’t got it wrong, and the wording is “Basically, in seven years time, I know that I need about 240 megawatts annually to dispense to EV drivers”, followed by the bit about 25% of an average nuclear power station output.

As an aside, if you want free access to the likes of Auto Express, Autocar and a host of other newspapers and magazines for both the U.K. and further afield… join your local library, which you can probably do online and once you have your library card number download the PressReader app and sign up to that with the library card option.

 

[mnobleuk]

I'm curious on moto figures too. They will absolutely have througput numbers so they know how many people visit. They probably also know how many fill up at their petrol stations. Some combination of that data plus some estimation gets them to the numbers they're quoting.

Hopefully they've considered that any MSAs near someones trip start may not need a charge even if you're stopping for a coffee/kids need a wee. And potentially likewise on return legs depndgin on destination charger availability.

I'd love to see the modelling.

But likewise given petrol in service stations is more expensive than elsewhere and most fill up "cheaply" before going on a long journey then it evens out ?

 

[mnobleuk]

240 MW is roughly half of 1 Nuclear Unit generation. But if you put it "annually" - then it is 240 MWh, which does not seem right.

I think he's being very careful saying MW rather than MWh - that is the 2,500 chargers simultaneously providing 96kw which might not be unreasonable at certain times of the year and day (and you'd probably have to provide more capacity than that to provide a safety margin). Even if he's out by a factor of 2 then that's still 120MW.

MWh over the year won't be close to 240MWh as the chargers won't be used 100% 24/7.

 

[Avendit]

Have to admit, I was pretty impressed rolling up to Tebay a few weeks ago and seeing 12 v3's running at full chat. That's potentially 3MW, although given actual charge curves etc, not 3 MWh. Thats some fat wires!

 

[djtaylor]

Yes, they may have just assumed that a third of the number of cars they presently see in their car parks will be EVs and that they will all need to charge. In theory they should have better data than we have ... but it's equally possible it's been worked out on the back of a fag packet without a full appreciation of how this is going to pan out.

I would say it's the fag packet option. I see this all the time in YouTube comments on the usual culprit anti EV channels.
Goes something like this:
"32 million cars which if all EV will need to have xxx public charging points to replace yyy petrol pumps used by 32 million cars".
They completely forget or just don't understand that the majority of charging would not be done in the style of dinosaur juice.
i.e. everyone turn up and wait in line at at an outlet.

 

[FastLaneJB]

I use 12 hours of rapid charging in a year (mostly in Europe, so a massive over-estimate for UK typical trips). That is (roughly) one rapid per 1000 vehicles? at 10,000,000 EVs on the road, it makes 10,000 rapids total. However, if I look at my UK supercharging, it comes to 2 hours a year and out of the 3 vehicles in our household, mine is the only one used for long trips - which makes the estimate look high. (and I'm averaging 70kW charging for the UK trips, not 100)

It’s good job everyone in the UK has a driveway like you to charge their cars at home. I think you need to consider that most that buy an electric car at the moment do have a driveway so a lot less public chargers are needed. Once the people that cannot charge at home are forced into electric cars, we’ll need to rapidly increase the amount of chargers.

Not read the article but you’d assume they’d use the data of people filling up ICE cars and maybe multiple that by 2 roughly as an ICE car I suspect on average has twice the range. Then you also need to consider dwell time as charging speed is slower than filling with fuel so that’s also got to factor into how many chargers you’ll need.

Ultimately I do really think we need longer range EV’s so people have to charge far less often. That’ll reduce the amount of infrastructure we need as those larger batteries will maintain higher charge speeds for longer so won’t need longer to charge.

I do think it’ll be an utter mess and they’ll have to push it back to align with EU to 2035.

 

[Avendit]

It’s good job everyone in the UK has a driveway like you to charge their cars at home. I think you need to consider that most that buy an electric car at the moment do have a driveway so a lot less public chargers are needed. Once the people that cannot charge at home are forced into electric cars, we’ll need to rapidly increase the amount of chargers.

Not read the article but you’d assume they’d use the data of people filling up ICE cars and maybe multiple that by 2 roughly as an ICE car I suspect on average has twice the range. Then you also need to consider dwell time as charging speed is slower than filling with fuel so that’s also got to factor into how many chargers you’ll need.

Ultimately I do really think we need longer range EV’s so people have to charge far less often. That’ll reduce the amount of infrastructure we need as those larger batteries will maintain higher charge speeds for longer so won’t need longer to charge.

I do think it’ll be an utter mess and they’ll have to push it back to align with EU to 2035.

On street charging is a problem, but lots of trials of solutions are ongoing. It won't always be the barrier it is just now.

Diesel ICE may have 2x the range, but all my petrol cars did 300-350/tank. My 4yo m3 can't match that, but a new LR does.

Look at the giant BMW. It does go a bit further than an M3, but on 50% more battery. Lots of decisions led to that nasty efficiency, but part of it is carting the weight of the battery.

What I've noticed is that a 250kw charger has the car ready quicker than I am most of the time. So I think there will be options to spread the load more - I need to be at 80% in 40 mins while I get a family through the bathrooms and a burger, so the charger sits more at 120kw. That leaves 350kw supply free for the people that only have 1 person to get through the bathroom and just want a packet of crisps in 7 minutes.

I think integrated trip planning can take much of the load here. Integrated ABRP level planning that books you a slot at the right charger as you approach maximises utilisation and minimises wait time and allows load balancing between stalls.

 

[WannabeOwner]

The Norwegians seem to be managing (95% of new cars are not Fossil Fuel), rapid chargers everywhere ... I know they have plenty of airport parking with plug-in trickle-charging but I'd be interested to know what they have available for non-driveway owners - perhaps they have supermarket carparks covered with "modest" rate chargers?

On street charging is a problem, but lots of trials of solutions are ongoing.

My view is that we dug up the road for sewerage, electricity, telephone, gas, cable, fibre ,,, doing it again doesn't seem unreasonable (except on all previous occasions it was possible to sell the service to the whole street at the same time, this will have to wait until the owner next replaces their car)

books you a slot at the right charger as you approach

Whilst I like the sound of that I can't see that working

Have to find the right stall (in a forest, by then, of stalls) and someone else is in it - they are not getting a charge (reserved for you) but you've got to wait until they get out of your stall ... and so on.

 

[yessuz]

in Norway, for example, Oslo, they have massive underground parkings with loads of slow-ish chargers... loads of street parking with charging. and yet they still have some queues during holidays

 

[Jason71]

seems to me that we will be able to keep up with the daily and weekly peaks.
It is the bank holidays and Saturdays in July etc that will be the issue. or localised peaks around events like the exodus from Glastonbury or the British GP after a weekend of camp mode.
Most people don't need much Rapid charging and those that do will graduate towards longer and longer range faster charging vehicles as they become available.
BUT
on the holidays when everyone takes to the road including 38KWh Minis and lots of cars that can only charge at 50Kw to have enough capacity to satisfy demand would mean huge numbers of chargers sitting idle much of the time which no commercial organisation would want to pay for.
I appreciate that at similar times there can be queues at motorway petrol stations but the greater range of ICE cars and the shorter filling time means that the number of cars queuing and the wait time will proportionately much higher for EV's at least until solid state batteries with LK-99 superconducting motors are the norm.

 

[Mrklaw]

It’s good job everyone in the UK has a driveway like you to charge their cars at home. I think you need to consider that most that buy an electric car at the moment do have a driveway so a lot less public chargers are needed. Once the people that cannot charge at home are forced into electric cars, we’ll need to rapidly increase the amount of chargers.

Not read the article but you’d assume they’d use the data of people filling up ICE cars and maybe multiple that by 2 roughly as an ICE car I suspect on average has twice the range. Then you also need to consider dwell time as charging speed is slower than filling with fuel so that’s also got to factor into how many chargers you’ll need.

Ultimately I do really think we need longer range EV’s so people have to charge far less often. That’ll reduce the amount of infrastructure we need as those larger batteries will maintain higher charge speeds for longer so won’t need longer to charge.

I do think it’ll be an utter mess and they’ll have to push it back to align with EU to 2035.

Most do though so while those without driveways might need a rapid more often it wouldn’t change the numbers massively I don’t think. I assume if going on a long trip even without a driveway you’d ch agree locally to set off with as full a tank as possible. If so then the ‘how many charge at a MSA’ numbers wouldnt be affected by whether you have a driveway at home or not

 

[mnobleuk]

I would say it's the fag packet option. I see this all the time in YouTube comments on the usual culprit anti EV channels.
Goes something like this:
"32 million cars which if all EV will need to have xxx public charging points to replace yyy petrol pumps used by 32 million cars".
They completely forget or just don't understand that the majority of charging would not be done in the style of dinosaur juice.
i.e. everyone turn up and wait in line at at an outlet.

But as I said before I don't think its a bad "fag packet" estimate. Most people avoid motorway services as petrol is more expensive there by filling up before they hit the motorway. That model isn't any different with EVs. Remember he's talking about motorway service stations so he knows how many people buy petrol there and how much they buy.

I wouldn't put a motorway services boss in the anti EV box - in fact I'd say the opposite. EVs have shorter range than ICE so will have to stop more often and stop for longer - increasing stops and dwell time at services and encouraging more people to buy coffees, food, mothers' day cards ....

 

[FastLaneJB]

I thought it's something like 1/3 of homes don't have a driveway in off the top of my head in this country. Might be wrong but it's not an insignificant number.

If you watch Engineering Explained video on the Merc EQXX he talks about what effects an electric cars range and weight actually isn't as big a factor as you think. So a bigger battery will still net you much longer range and won't hurt your efficiency that badly assuming chemistry is the same. However I'll say it again on this forum, larger capacity does not have to weigh more. Batteries will improve and we'll get more range for the same weight. Nio can add another 50kWh to their car and it only adds 20kg over their 100kWh battery. Yes it's expensive but it's brand new, it'll drop in price.

The Fisker Ocean also seems to be retty efficient, has a massive battery and doesn't cost the world.

Ultimately things have to improve because the range is not good enough yet. Talk of 300 miles but that's not quite the truth most of the time. Cannot get that range in the cold or too hot, charging to 100% takes an age so you'd probably not charge to full at a rapid most of the time, charging to full or going to empty often isn't good for the battery, etc. 300 miles might be enough if you could get that all the time and not have to wait forever to get those last few percent or worry about knackering the battery.

I basically think we need more chargers and longer range cars to have any chance of pulling this off by 2030 in a reasonable manner. If lots end up with 150 mile Mini's and the like we'll have to litter the country with chargers.