Attempting to price out options for Model 3

[ccutrer]

the link you posted is to save money on the generation fee of your bill. I pay 7.09 cents/kWh for generation (slightly higher than the cheapest of ~6.5 cents/kWh b/c I choose a provider with 100% renewables), the rest is delivery charge. No one to call to fix that.

I will still buy a M3, just wanted to point out that not everyone is saving in fuel costs. SC is on my plan but remember this probably won't be free on M3. I am also thinking of getting solar.

Yeah... solar. My electric rate is $0.09-0.14, and solar makes sense financially here.

And not to invalidate your situation (since a 45mpg Prius is what you drive), but if someone were cross shopping vehicles with similar performance to a Model 3, they won't be anywhere close to 45mpg.

 

[MiamiNole]

Wouldn't it be great if the $35k M3 was a great driving car, great acceleration, interior space, good cornering, low center of gravity, reasonable range, EV, quiet, and a completely stripped down driver's car? No leather, no wood, AM radio, air, just basic nice. That is what I hope it will be for $35k.

Lol, what?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

PtG62901 said: ↑
Wouldn't it be great if the $35k M3 was a great driving car, great acceleration, interior space, good cornering, low center of gravity, reasonable range, EV, quiet, and a completely stripped down driver's car? No leather, no wood, AM radio, air, just basic nice. That is what I hope it will be for $35k.



Say no more..........

 

[SureValla]

Yeah... solar. My electric rate is $0.09-0.14, and solar makes sense financially here.

And not to invalidate your situation (since a 45mpg Prius is what you drive), but if someone were cross shopping vehicles with similar performance to a Model 3, they won't be anywhere close to 45mpg.

your also in UT, not as much sun in CT but I think it will still make sense. Just a question of whether I'm staying in my current home for long enough.

 

[SureValla]

If you are thinking solar...I can help.

Click on my link in my signature below. I can help with anything related to my system as my son and I installed it ourselves.

what kind of maintenance costs do you incur with solar. I've seen panel cleaning fees as well as having to replace inverters every so often to name a few.

 

[SageBrush]

This is really cool, and hard to figure out too. At the moment, 5% of cars (let's say) have more then 200,000 miles, but we don't know how many of those are getting to 300,000. I'm thinking it isn't 5% of cars get to 300k? If I had to bet, it would be 2% get to 300,000. That is why it is special. How about you guys?

I found one more data point:

Number of car on the road that are 16 - 25+ years old
Denominator is about 250 million

The number of vehicles on the road that are at least 25 years old is about 14 million. That's up from about 8 million in 2002. Those are vehicles made in 1990 or earlier.

Meanwhile, the number of vehicles that are 16 to 24 years old is 44 million. That's up from 26 million in 2002, according to IHS.

 

[Neohippy]

Yeah... solar. My electric rate is $0.09-0.14, and solar makes sense financially here.

And not to invalidate your situation (since a 45mpg Prius is what you drive), but if someone were cross shopping vehicles with similar performance to a Model 3, they won't be anywhere close to 45mpg.

I drive a Prius and don't think you will find anything more cost effective to drive. A Prius lacks luxury and horsepower. Nothing on the market except Tesla deliver it all. Cars with Tesla performance get 8mpg.

 

[Canuck]

I'm also dubious as to the repeated claims that all the options available on the Model S will be available on the Model 3.

Elon Musk confirmed ludicrous mode which really is the ultimate option. Once we know it will have that, how can any lesser option be ruled out?

Tesla Model 3 Will Get Ludicrous Mode

Are you okay with paying $105k for it?

If that's the price - then that's what I'll have to pay. It's a lot less than a fully loaded Model S. I'm hoping everyone who says a fully loaded one will be $50k is right, but I just can't see that happening. Biggest battery, ludicrous, leather, pano, SC, AP, etc. for $50k? That's dreaming to me. I think $105k may be a bit rich - but maybe not. Maybe 85 to $95k is more in the ballpark? No one really knows until it comes time to configure unless Tesla tells us in advance of configuration.

 

[pinski]

Elon Musk confirmed ludicrous mode which really is the ultimate option. Once we know it will have that, how can any lesser option be ruled out?

I suppose that's fair, but when I used the S-class reference, I was considering luxurious options. That said, the Model S doesn't have anything that I would consider terribly luxurious. To that point, I may be wrong and they will share the entire options list between them. I guess I can only hope that economies of scale will push some of those options down from being so expensive.

If that's the price - then that's what I'll have to pay. It's a lot less than a fully loaded Model S. I'm hoping everyone who says a fully loaded one will be $50k is right, but I just can't see that happening. Biggest battery, ludicrous, leather, pano, SC, AP, etc. for $50k? That's dreaming to me. I think $105k may be a bit rich - but maybe not. Maybe 85 to $95k is more in the ballpark? No one really knows until it comes time to configure unless Tesla tells us in advance of configuration.

I agree that a loaded car for $50k is dreaming - that's what I'm prepared to spend and have no illusion that I'll get a loaded car for that. I just want one that's mid-level with a few options. That said, I'll be among those surprised if a completely loaded variant runs north of $100k USD. Complete conjecture, but if I had to guess, I'd say $75-80k.

 

[PtG62901]

That said, I'll be among those surprised if a completely loaded variant runs north of $100k USD. Complete conjecture, but if I had to guess, I'd say $75-80k.

Wouldn't it be something if you could get a 0-60 in under 4 seconds, for $75k? Starting price of 3 v S is $35 v $60? PSDL is $140? You would be lucky to get a P3DL for $100k, wouldn't you? I suspect you can just take the price of the PSDL, and subtract $35k to get your P3DL price. Something like that.

You want the big guns, they have you right where they want you.

 

[pinski]

Wouldn't it be something if you could get a 0-60 in under 4 seconds, for $75k? Starting price of 3 v S is $35 v $60? PSDL is $140? You would be lucky to get a P3DL for $100k, wouldn't you? I suspect you can just take the price of the PSDL, and subtract $35k to get your P3DL price. Something like that.

You want the big guns, they have you right where they want you.

I follow your logic, but I'll just be stunned if that happens. The $140k price of the PSDL is 2.3x that of the base car, right? Apply that same 2.3x price increase to the Model 3 and you arrive at $80k. Selling the loaded Model 3 for nearly 3x what the base car costs just doesn't make a lot of sense (to me). I'll be more than happy to eat crow when/if I'm wrong, but considering both the market they want to target for this car and the class of vehicle with which they want to compete, I just don't see how that flies.

That said, there seem to be more than a few here that would be cool with paying over $100k for it, and I'm sure Tesla understands their target market better than I do.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla S: 50 miles * 0.333 kWh/mile / .85% efficiency * 0.249 $/kWh = $4.88

Prius Gen 2: 50 mi / 45 mpg * 2.15 $/gal = $2.39

should I assume the M3 will be more efficient than the MS?

I'm not saying that it will or won't be. I don't work for Tesla. However what I believe is that in 18 months the M3 will be tremendously more efficient that what the MS is TODAY.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Wouldn't it be something if you could get a 0-60 in under 4 seconds, for $75k? Starting price of 3 v S is $35 v $60? PSDL is $140? You would be lucky to get a P3DL for $100k, wouldn't you? I suspect you can just take the price of the PSDL, and subtract $35k to get your P3DL price. Something like that.

You want the big guns, they have you right where they want you.

Are you guys kidding me? You really believe that the M3 will have a price range from $35K to over $100K?

The M3 won't be out for 18 months. Do you know what is going to happen in 18 months?

That's insane.

We had the same kind of posts saying that the most expensive MS would be $250K. - before the MS came out.

What class is the M3 in? What car is it competing with?

 

[Garlan Garner]

I hope these threads are still here in 18 months.

 

[ccutrer]

I suppose that's fair, but when I used the S-class reference, I was considering luxurious options. That said, the Model S doesn't have anything that I would consider terribly luxurious. To that point, I may be wrong and they will share the entire options list between them. I guess I can only hope that economies of scale will push some of those options down from being so expensive.

Maybe they will add new, exclusive and luxurious options to the Model S?

 

[ccutrer]

your also in UT, not as much sun in CT but I think it will still make sense. Just a question of whether I'm staying in my current home for long enough.

This is true. I also only have east/west roof, so that cuts my annual production down by about 1/3. This is made up for because I did the install myself, saving tens of thousands on labor costs.

what kind of maintenance costs do you incur with solar. I've seen panel cleaning fees as well as having to replace inverters every so often to name a few.

None, nada, zilch on a well designed system. An occasional (and I mean very very occasional to rare) is all you need to clean the panels. In winter, it's just silly to try and clear the snow off. It's not worth the cost of having someone come to clean it, cause you won't make up for it in additional production. Nor is it worth me going up on an icy roof and breaking my neck myself. Plus once you get a sunny day (when there would actually be production anyway!), it melts below the snow, on top of the panel, first, causing all of the snow to slide right off. Sometimes you get some buildup on the bottom rows where it doesn't slide off the roof below it, but as long as you have a modern system (either micro inverters - see Enphase, or power optimizers - see SolarEdge) that can keep producing when some panels are shaded, it's no big deal.

As for replacing inverters (or panels) - my panels have a 20-30 year warranty, and my inverter I think is 10 or 15, that I paid a few hundred to get doubled. There are also power optimizers under each of the panels that could theoretically go bad too, but they're relatively simple (as opposed to micro-inverters), so it's unlikely they'll fail in that same timespan.

Both @Garlan Garner and I have a SolarEdge based system, which is power optimizers under each panel that do a DC-to-DC conversion, that then feeds to a (simpler and more efficient) central inverter. The beauty of this design is that you get the per-panel benefits of micro-inverters (a small DC-to-AC conversion under each panel), with less electronics up on the roof, and DC in the central location where you can add in a battery system (PowerWall). The original Tesla inverter partner for PowerWall is, in fact, SolarEdge.

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is true. I also only have east/west roof, so that cuts my annual production down by about 1/3. This is made up for because I did the install myself, saving tens of thousands on labor costs.



None, nada, zilch on a well designed system. An occasional (and I mean very very occasional to rare) is all you need to clean the panels. In winter, it's just silly to try and clear the snow off. It's not worth the cost of having someone come to clean it, cause you won't make up for it in additional production. Nor is it worth me going up on an icy roof and breaking my neck myself. Plus once you get a sunny day (when there would actually be production anyway!), it melts below the snow, on top of the panel, first, causing all of the snow to slide right off. Sometimes you get some buildup on the bottom rows where it doesn't slide off the roof below it, but as long as you have a modern system (either micro inverters - see Enphase, or power optimizers - see SolarEdge) that can keep producing when some panels are shaded, it's no big deal.

As for replacing inverters (or panels) - my panels have a 20-30 year warranty, and my inverter I think is 10 or 15, that I paid a few hundred to get doubled. There are also power optimizers under each of the panels that could theoretically go bad too, but they're relatively simple (as opposed to micro-inverters), so it's unlikely they'll fail in that same timespan.

Both @Garlan Garner and I have a SolarEdge based system, which is power optimizers under each panel that do a DC-to-DC conversion, that then feeds to a (simpler and more efficient) central inverter. The beauty of this design is that you get the per-panel benefits of micro-inverters (a small DC-to-AC conversion under each panel), with less electronics up on the roof, and DC in the central location where you can add in a battery system (PowerWall). The original Tesla inverter partner for PowerWall is, in fact, SolarEdge.

Yes - What ccuter said. Ditto. SolarEdge is the best option I've found.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Maybe they will add new, exclusive and luxurious options to the Model S?

I like the MS As-Is.

 

[S3XY]

the last new car I bought that I went to a dealer (ford) and picked the specific options I wanted, had packages that were something like "Convenience" (extra illumination, heated mirrors, upgraded mats, leather shift boot and steering wheel, etc), "Sport" (upgraded wheels, upgraded seats, bright sill trim, different suspension/steering, etc), "Sun & Fun" (sunroof - apparently it's fun enough on it's own) then individual options like leather, ABS, etc and a particular car could have any combination of packages.
Personally, I think I'd rather be able to pick the specific parts and pieces I really am interested in and skip the others that may be adding cost that I'm not interested in, but if packages bring down prices as a while, I am all for them if they combine things as most people would (IE an interior package with decor/leather/tech)

One of the reasons the other car companies sell options in packages is because they want to limit the builds to a few different levels. That's because they use dealerships and the dealerships generally order the cars before they have a buyer. They don't want to be financing 50 different versions of the same car in order to make that one sale that matches a potential buyer. It's easier (and cheaper) to have 3 trim lines in 4 or 5 colors so they only need a dozen or so on the lot. Since nearly all Teslas are pre-orders they can efficiently build each car to spec by batching similar orders. And I, like you, prefer to pay only for the options I want rather than paying a premium for a package that has the one option I want and a few that I could care less about.

 

[22522]

And I, like you, prefer to pay only for the options I want rather than paying a premium for a package that has the one option I want and a few that I could care less about.

I think that pattern works for people who keep their cars for a long time, and have no issues with identity on the resale market. It took me a while to understand as I changed use model from keep for 17 years to keep for 5 years. Finally got it.