I totally agree that Tesla is going to make another very big run-up. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced.
I believe the run from 40-150 was about a few things:
1) Tesla posted a profit despite a lot of wall street thinking they wouldn't (e.g. Wall street underestimated their earnings).
2) Tesla makes a great product
3) There was a lot of disagreement that really polarized opinions. One group thought Tesla would make it, the other thought Tesla would absolutely fail. The shorts were wrong and the squeeze happened.
Looking at TSLA today, what has changed? The product is still great. The plan is still great. A LOT of people are still shorting the stock. Unless something tragic happens, all these shorts are going to have to cover. When Q3 ER isn't bad, Q1 is going to happen all over again.
Tesla isn't really that much more "overvalued" at a 30B or 40B market cap than it is currently at a 20B market cap. In the minds of investors, they all want to jump on now because they believe Tesla will be disruptive. I think Tesla has a lot more growth coming by the end of the year.
I agree with you...but I think Q3 will blow out the expectations of investment advisors . Demand still outstrips supply for the S in the US.. Production numbers indicate that it is possible that we will have the amount delivered at the end of Q3 being equal to the projections for the entire 2013 year. Gross margins heading more towards the magic 25% mark by eoy. News/guidance that Asian and European reservations are 'big' and battery constraints/bottleneck is being controlled. Reservations growing on the 'X'.
Look out shorts could be a second tsunami.