- For and against Nikola the company and the stock
- Just how bad are fool sells?
- Also, is NKLA going up good for TSLA?
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Hey, I take offense to that, on behalf of my Swedish brothers! Ikea is a fine company; thousands and thousands of families, including me, depend on them to provide furniture. They also have world-class logistics.NKLA is the Ikea of EVs. Trevor "One Size Does Not Fit All" Milton lied to our face saying that they're vertically integrated. How are you vertically integrated if you don't own anything? Said he's one of the only people who can outdo Elon Musk. Also said he sucked at manufacturing so he had someone else do it. Nothing computes with this organization.
Don't worry, I understood what you meant . It's just, Ikea is a very successful company, and NKLA doesn't deserve to be anywhere near them.I dont mean Ikea as low quality. No offense intended. I shop at Ikea a lot. People are under the impression that Ikea makes its own furniture while it fact it just repackages them under the brand Ikea. That's what I meant: NKLA doesn't make anything but it acts like it does. I got rid of that line.
- For and against Nikola the company and the stock
- Just how bad are fool sells?
- Also, is NKLA going up good for TSLA?
OK I’m having trouble understanding the sales model on NKLA with its Fuel cell Trucks coming in 2023 (supposedly).
They aren’t technically going to be selling them, instead they will be $665,000 cost over a 7 year lease, which includes the truck, the hydrogen fuel (up to 100,000 miles per year included, and all servicing/maintenance).
That works out at $95,000 revenue per year per truck ($665k / 7 years).
However the upfront costs for Nikola in the first year are as follows:
- cost of truck to build: $188,174
- cost of hydrogen fuel For 1 year: $33,000
- servicing / maintenance: $6,680
- capex share of refuelling station per truck: $3,766
Total 1st year cost for Nikola to ship one truck: $231,620
So less first year revenue, Nikola is negative $136,620 cashflow for every truck it sells in the first year of the lease, and it will take several more years for Nikola To become profitable on that sale.
The only way Nikola can get around then horrible economies of that business model is to either have a massive amount of cash on hand to cover the cash burn for the first half decade of operations (which they don’t have), or they securitise the lease agreements in some manner to 3rd parties (which will decrease margins).View attachment 550627 View attachment 550628
Couldn't help but notice that they're planning on their cost of H2 as $2.47/kg - 1/7th current prices. I've seen optimistic projections of H2 being "price competitive" with gasoline within 5 years (ASSUMING significant production volume), but that translates to ~$6/kg in 2025.
Not sure how Nikola intends to bring H2 production costs down?
Our inability to cost-effectively source the energy requirements to conduct electrolysis at our fueling stations may impact the profitability of our bundled leases by making our hydrogen uneconomical compared to other vehicle fuel sources.
Our ability to economically produce hydrogen for our FCEV trucks requires us to secure a reliable source of electricity for each of our fueling stations at a price per kilowatt hour that is below the current retail rates in the geographic areas we target. An increase in the price of energy used to generate hydrogen through electrolysis would likely result in a higher cost of fuel for our FCEV trucks as well as increase the cost of distribution, freight and delivery and other operating costs related to vehicle manufacturing. We may not be able to offset these cost increases or pass such cost increases onto customers in the form of price increases, because of our bundled lease model for FCEV trucks, which could have an adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.
We may not be able to produce or source the hydrogen needed to establish our planned hydrogen fueling stations.
As a key component of our business model, we intend to establish a series of hydrogen fueling stations, and we intend to include the cost of hydrogen in the purchase price of our trucks. We intend to produce the hydrogen needed for these stations on site through electrolysis. To the extent we are unable to produce the hydrogen, we may be unable to establish these fueling stations and severely limit the usefulness of our trucks, or, if we are still able to establish these stations, we may be forced to sell hydrogen at a loss in order to maintain our commitments.
They don't get to choose to build the refueling stations where the energy is cheap. They have to be where they're needed for long distance transport. Not the same places at all.From their 8K:
Essentially they are planning to build their stations where they can get really cheap, free, or even negative cost, electricity during off hours that the grid would normally need curtail, or dump, power to use in their hydrogen generation.
I think the biggest flaw in their plan is that by the time they get around to building these stations Tesla will already have come through and setup Megacharger stations, each with at least one Megapack, and Tesla will already be soaking up all of that cheap/free energy.
They don't get to choose to build the refueling stations where the energy is cheap. They have to be where they're needed for long distance transport. Not the same places at all.
Examining the hydrogen marginal and capex assumption...OK I’m having trouble understanding the sales model on NKLA with its Fuel cell Trucks coming in 2023 (supposedly).
They aren’t technically going to be selling them, instead they will be $665,000 cost over a 7 year lease, which includes the truck, the hydrogen fuel (up to 100,000 miles per year included, and all servicing/maintenance).
That works out at $95,000 revenue per year per truck ($665k / 7 years).
However the upfront costs for Nikola in the first year are as follows:
- cost of truck to build: $188,174
- cost of hydrogen fuel For 1 year: $33,000
- servicing / maintenance: $6,680
- capex share of refuelling station per truck: $3,766
Total 1st year cost for Nikola to ship one truck: $231,620
So less first year revenue, Nikola is negative $136,620 cashflow for every truck it sells in the first year of the lease, and it will take several more years for Nikola To become profitable on that sale.
The only way Nikola can get around then horrible economies of that business model is to either have a massive amount of cash on hand to cover the cash burn for the first half decade of operations (which they don’t have), or they securitise the lease agreements in some manner to 3rd parties (which will decrease margins).View attachment 550627 View attachment 550628
Where can I get in on a deal like this?
View attachment 552984
I can spend $5 million of your money to market a truck and I get 10 shares of NKLA per $100 of reservations? So if the reservation price is $1,000 I get $6,400 in stock per reserved truck? (Up to a total of $128 million worth of stock at the current valuation if I can get 200k reservations with your $5 million of market budget.)
Talk about a sweet referral program.
Edit: I see that he has said that the Diesel Brothers are the consultant that got this sweet gig.
So that’s why the reservations are free?
Nkla will have both bev and hfc trucks, the fuel cell will have a 3ookwh? Battery.
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- Just how bad are fool sells?
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