All discussion of Lucid Motors

[MP3Mike]

Where are you getting such granular and recent data?

That is all just data from their Production&Delivery press releases. Inventory = Production-Delivery. Days of Supply uses the industry standard calculation: Inventory/(Q deliveries/75)

 

[RobStark]

That is all just data from their Production&Delivery press releases. Inventory = Production-Delivery. Days of Supply uses the industry standard calculation: Inventory/(Q deliveries/75)

So company cars, homologation crash testing cars, press cars, loaner cars are not deducted to get us to inventory for sale. The number should be pretty close though.

 

[Mengy]

Lucid reported Q1 2024 results, and they are not promising. Revenue of $172.7 million, 16% higher than a year ago. but loss per share was $0.30 (higher than estimates of $0.25) with adjusted EBITDA loss of $598.4 million.

Lucid appears to be stuck in a rut for over a year now, revenues are basically flat but so are the losses, they aren't noticeably improving.

 

[Knightshade]

Worse than that a pretty large % of their sales weren't real 3rd party sales- they were to Saudi Arabia which is their majority owner.

 

[Bouba]

Lucid reported Q1 2024 results, and they are not promising. Revenue of $172.7 million, 16% higher than a year ago. but loss per share was $0.30 (higher than estimates of $0.25) with adjusted EBITDA loss of $598.4 million.

Lucid appears to be stuck in a rut for over a year now, revenues are basically flat but so are the losses, they aren't noticeably improving.

They will probably fail is my guess...yesterday’s technology wrapped in a poor attempt at luxury....who wants it ?....they need to transition away from cars and into car related technology such as AI

 

[DBV1]

That is too bad, I hope they improve, but not looking positive. They were so aggressive on the 2023’s last month, not sure how they move 2024’s without being close to that aggressive again.

Lucid has not had a major software upgrade in a long time, that has to also be a concern, as makes you wonder what is slowing the updates down. People say the Gravity, but you still have to support your current car.

People keep saying how great their tech is, but Porsche and others have caught up or moved ahead with the new Macan and then Taycan. So, not sure what Lucid’s tech advantage is now. I am interested on how the 2024 Grand Touring performs with the new heat pump and updated battery characteristics/charging. See how much of a difference that makes to real range.

On the tech software side, they are no where close to their competitors.

I really like Lucid, so hope they survive.

 

[Ben W]

I also hope Lucid survives. Their drivetrain tech is quite impressive, and I like their hardware-forward approach to autonomy. (Once L4 is solved and available for licensing, I expect it will be considerably easier to back-port it to a 2021 Lucid than to a 2024 Tesla.) Their sales and gross margins are flat year-over-year, but with EV prices having dropped through the floor that's a considerable accomplishment, and better than most other EV startups. The EV market will eventually recover, prices will eventually swing the other direction, and Lucid's costs will continue to drop with economies of scale.

Gravity should have a significant market for people who want an upscale EV SUV without the quirkiness of a Model X. Hopefully it will be enough to tide them over a couple more years, until their midrange "$48-50k" platform is ready. Switching to NACS next year should help too. I'm potentially in the market for a Lucid Air but will probably wait for NACS before pulling the trigger. (NACS may be a non-issue in Saudi Arabia, so I'm not concerned if a large chunk of Lucid's 2024 sales come from there.) So, it's a huge upward climb for Lucid over the next several years, but I hope they make it, and I think they have a chance.

 

[CyberShy]

Forget losses per share.

Look at Income vs. Expenses.

$176M vs. $729M in losses on 1932 vehicles sold.

That’s unsustainable.

Lucid won’t even guide on gross margin per vehicle. They’re very. very negative.

Rawlinson brags about how great Lucid is and all of the advantages Lucid has in technology and brags about how great the Gravity will be when it launches in late 2026. But they can’t sell cars.

$5B isn’t going to last them until 2026 without some serious cuts in operating expenses.

They need capital to make it. They don’t make a dime selling cars.

 

[Bouba]

Rawlinson had one good idea...to improve on the Model S....and it’s probably made him fabulously wealthy. But he underestimated Tesla in one big way, Elon is an amazing car salesman.
Rawlinson did improve the technology....but took so long that in the meantime the Model S has been improved a thousand times

 

[CyberShy]

Buying a Lucid now is like buying a Fisker. Any customer is concerned about parts and service due to the future viability of the company. It doesn't matter how great the car is if there is no confidence in the company.

Tesla buyers had confidence in the early days, plus hope and hype and performance and excitement. Lucid needs to do more than just make a good car. They need to instill confidence in their buyers that they will be around in 2-5 years.

I'd ask anyone who was considering buying a Lucid why they didn't proceed. Rawlinson made it sound like they can't sell cars because no one knows they exist. I think it's worse than that. There's a boat they missed and it had easy credit and low interest rates on it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hopefully no one buys a Lucid because they realize the company is going to go bankrupt. Anyone can sell a product for cheaper than it costs. Well almost anyone, Lucid can't even do that very well. At any rate, both Lucid and Rivian have shown zero meaningful progress towards selling cars at a profit, and the longer it goes on, the closer they get to bankruptcy.

 

[MP3Mike]

Rawlinson made it sound like they can't sell cars because no one knows they exist. I think it's worse than that.

Yeah, he essentially said they slowed down production because of demand issues. Then he said that of course they can't make money at low volumes, as they are setup for high volume. But I don't see any plan for increasing demand to get to high volume before they run out of money again, and again. (Maybe when, if?, they get to the point of making their Model 3/Y competitors.)

But really, I think it will get so bad that eventually the Saudi's take-over, close all the North American offices, and move everything to Saudi Arabia as their official government vehicle supplier. They will soon have full factory production there, right? (As that is what they are working on building right now.)

 

[dl003]

I also hope Lucid survives. Their drivetrain tech is quite impressive, and I like their hardware-forward approach to autonomy. (Once L4 is solved and available for licensing, I expect it will be considerably easier to back-port it to a 2021 Lucid than to a 2024 Tesla.) Their sales and gross margins are flat year-over-year, but with EV prices having dropped through the floor that's a considerable accomplishment, and better than most other EV startups. The EV market will eventually recover, prices will eventually swing the other direction, and Lucid's costs will continue to drop with economies of scale.

Gravity should have a significant market for people who want an upscale EV SUV without the quirkiness of a Model X. Hopefully it will be enough to tide them over a couple more years, until their midrange "$48-50k" platform is ready. Switching to NACS next year should help too. I'm potentially in the market for a Lucid Air but will probably wait for NACS before pulling the trigger. (NACS may be a non-issue in Saudi Arabia, so I'm not concerned if a large chunk of Lucid's 2024 sales come from there.) So, it's a huge upward climb for Lucid over the next several years, but I hope they make it, and I think they have a chance.

When you stuff $400k worth of tech in a car sold for $150k, of course the tech is going to feel amazing, for the price you pay.

That's what people raving about this and RIVN and Ford Lightning and etc etc don't get. Tesla is fully capable of producing cars that will make these seem like a 1995 Civic, but they just choose not to, because the goal is to make money. Imagine RIVN having to sell the R1T for $300k or Ford Lightning for $150k. That's what they need to sell for to break even.

Going from -250% gross margin to break even is a taaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall order. There's something seriously wrong with their philosophy and you're not gonna get to economies of scale on that philosophy.

Or, imagine LCID going bust because, well, they lose 250% on everything they sell, and you are stuck with an unsupported $150k car.

 

[Ben W]

When you stuff $400k worth of stuff in a car sold for $150k, of course the tech is going to feel amazing.

That's what people raving about this and RIVN and Ford Lightning and etc etc don't get. Tesla is fully capable of producing cars that will make these seem like a 1995 Civic, but they just choose not to, because the goal is to make money. Imagine RIVN having to sell the R1T for $300k or Ford Lightning selling for $150k. That's what they need to sell at to break even.

Lucid's marginal loss on each car is FAR smaller than $250k. That misleading figure comes from the fact that they're shelling out billions for a factory that can eventually build 400,000 cars a year (current capacity 30,000), but expect to only build 9,000 cars THIS year as they ramp up. As their production gets closer to their capacity, the average loss per car will decrease dramatically, and eventually become profit. (And FWIW, their current models start at $70k, not $150k.)

Which components in their car exactly do you think are $400k expensive? (The cars are luxurious, but not made of solid gold!) Lucid has stated that the single most expensive component in the car (BoM-wise) is the battery, and their ~20% efficiency advantage over competitors allows them to use a smaller (thus cheaper) battery for a given range. Their Lidar unit evidently costs $1900; Lidar is no longer crazy expensive like it used to be. In any case, in a few years their midrange car(s) will be the vast majority of their sales and expenses, so that's the one to watch. Lucid is skating to where the puck is going to be.

 

[wws]

Hopefully no one buys a Lucid because they realize the company is going to go bankrupt. Anyone can sell a product for cheaper than it costs. Well almost anyone, Lucid can't even do that very well. At any rate, both Lucid and Rivian have shown zero meaningful progress towards selling cars at a profit, and the longer it goes on, the closer they get to bankruptcy.

Rivian seems to be heading in the right direction towards profitability. It will be interesting to see what the effects of their recent factory improvements have on COGS over the next few quarters.

If I were interested in a Lucid, I'd lease it. Reportedly they were offering some great lease deals last quarter.

 

[Electroman]

Lucid's marginal loss on each car is FAR smaller than $250k. That misleading figure comes from the fact that they're shelling out billions for a factory that can eventually build 400,000 cars a year (current capacity 30,000), but expect to only build 9,000 cars THIS year as they ramp up. As their production gets closer to their capacity, the average loss per car will decrease dramatically, and eventually become profit. (And FWIW, their current models start at $70k, not $150k.)

Which components in their car exactly do you think are $400k expensive? (The cars are luxurious, but not made of solid gold!) Lucid has stated that the single most expensive component in the car (BoM-wise) is the battery, and their ~20% efficiency advantage over competitors allows them to use a smaller (thus cheaper) battery for a given range. Their Lidar unit evidently costs $1900; Lidar is no longer crazy expensive like it used to be. In any case, in a few years their midrange car(s) will be the vast majority of their sales and expenses, so that's the one to watch. Lucid is skating to where the puck is going to be.

Good point.

I always take the statement, "they lost XX hundred dollars for every car they sold" statement with a pinch of salt.

 

[Dear_OP]

It all goes to reinforce how it difficult it is to sustain profitable EVs. Just wondering what other pure play EV boutique brands left that are not China owned or branded?

 

[Watts_Up]

With Porsche teaming with Bugatti and Rimac, this will not help Lucid regarding the luxury sport cars segment.

Porsche AG: Bugatti-Rimac combines the genes of strong brands - Porsche USA

www.porsche.com

Lucid still develops Formula E front motors, but this is a minuscule market.

Lucid Unveils Compact Electric Drive Unit For Formula E Racing​

 

[CyberShy]

All of Lucid's technology is great. Too bad it's not going into cars that sell or make them any money.

 

[Singuy]

Lucid's marginal loss on each car is FAR smaller than $250k. That misleading figure comes from the fact that they're shelling out billions for a factory that can eventually build 400,000 cars a year (current capacity 30,000), but expect to only build 9,000 cars THIS year as they ramp up. As their production gets closer to their capacity, the average loss per car will decrease dramatically, and eventually become profit. (And FWIW, their current models start at $70k, not $150k.)

Which components in their car exactly do you think are $400k expensive? (The cars are luxurious, but not made of solid gold!) Lucid has stated that the single most expensive component in the car (BoM-wise) is the battery, and their ~20% efficiency advantage over competitors allows them to use a smaller (thus cheaper) battery for a given range. Their Lidar unit evidently costs $1900; Lidar is no longer crazy expensive like it used to be. In any case, in a few years their midrange car(s) will be the vast majority of their sales and expenses, so that's the one to watch. Lucid is skating to where the puck is going to be.

Yeah whatever

Tesla didn't have to build 400k cars a year to make a positive gross margin.

From Q4 2012 earnings report

"
Total revenues for Q4 were $306 million, a 500% increase over Q3. During the quarter we delivered approximately 2,400 Model S vehicles.

..."From Q3 to Q4, total gross margin rose from (17)% to almost 8%"