Thanks be to the Agile price cap. 6:00-7:00pm is an eye watering 600+ £/mWh.
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Agile plunge pricing predictions
- Thread starter philgods
- Start date
Thanks be to the Agile price cap. 6:00-7:00pm is an eye watering 600+ £/mWh.
Market Data | EPEX SPOT
ACarneiro
Active Member
I run a spreadsheet that calculates my daily savings/excess of the Agile tariff compared to GO and other tariffs. On Agile I am still well over £100 better off and although recently that figure has been reducing, when the savings do come they come in big. One stormy night is all that's required...
Tonight however, we shall huddle around the candle.
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
Whilst we'll bask in the warmth of a floor heated at an electricity cost of about 3p/kWh of heat delivered. Sometimes the "old school" tariffs really are astoundingly good value, especially when we need heating, which is usually when the air is still and very cold, so not good for wind generation.
MrBadger
Badger out
Surely Octopus will be paying you for years to come with all your well deserved referrals
Agile is better tomorrow than it has been, but Go @ 14.29p / kWh is still as good as if not better for a significant portion of the day.
I got my friend onto Agile but unfortunately his usage is high and with 3 kids it's nigh on impossible for his family to avoid the 4-7pm peaks (no solar or batteries).
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
We're paying 13.83p/kWh peak rate (07:00 to 00:00) and 9p/kWh off peak rate (00:00 to 07:00), which overall is a bit cheaper than either Agile or Go for us, especially at the moment, when the heating has been running every night at the cheap rate, charging up the floor slab with heat.
ACarneiro
Active Member
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
Demand doesn't seem to be driving price as much as it used to, although it still tends to drive the strong diurnal pattern. The big price shifts seem to be driven by variations in the growing volume of renewable generation, particularly wind.
ACarneiro
Active Member
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
Looks like a short duration peak. The price seems to have jumped up to £2,750/MWH a bit earlier, so maybe it's a consequence of some generators gaming the system (tends to happen when we get conditions like this, I think).
*Adam
Member
NatGrid tut tut tut. Our nuke fleet should be generating more! This week has been one of the darkest (Pricing bonkers far greater than beast from the east and french nuke shudown).
Thankfully one would imagin Octopus don't leave too much to imbalance where they would pick up the 4k MWh. Most would be hedged, and bought on the prompt. Prob a lot traded through EPX and N2EX day ahead auctions.
ACarneiro
Active Member
Not hedged for Agile customers, according to their blog...
And I still think we need a lot more nukes.
Although, even the French are having to burn coal...
*Adam
Member
In that case it'll be traded through either the HH and hourly auctions. However I can't see why they wouldn't want to hedge for Agile customers. If you had reasonable cause to think the current market for forward contracts was bearish and would become bullish closer to delivery why wouldn't you want to trade the position out! I suppose if prices were 'stable' you wouldn't need to; but this year where we've seen the max ceiling of 35p KW/h being hit a few times and by quite a bit. This would hurt them.
And yes, more nukes!
Isn’t the point of Agile that the customer is taking the risk, Octopus are just marking up the wholesale price. Which is why it’s cheaper. Once you start hedging you’ve got to cover the risk you’re hedge doesn’t pay off.
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
Precisely. The main point of smart metering and variable tariffs is risk transfer, from suppliers to consumers.
By shifting the lion's share of the variable wholesale price variation risk to the customer, suppliers offering variable tariffs can more or less switch to a cost-plus profit model. Doing this lowers there operating cost, lowers their risk exposure and pretty much guarantees the level of profit per customer, irrespective of the vagaries of the market. The only fly in the ointment is the upper retail price cap imposed by the regulator, but the risk they bear from the few times a year that is imposed is very much smaller than the risk other suppliers bear who offer fixed tariffs.
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