A thought on the 'small' tesla?

I wonder if the 'small' tesla is waiting for big volumes of the 4680 battery as a key enabler of a 'City' car?

A couple of things make me think this, first and most simply, structural pack and castings will be important for keeping the BOM down, therefore keeping the cost down.

More complicatedly, the charge rate enabled by the 4680 is really important. One of the things that small EV's are fighting with is that you either go small pack (ala mini-e, the otherwise beautiful honda etc), which is light, fits easily in a small car, and just makes sense for a city car. Or you go for a bigger pack to hit around 200 miles (corsa and similar), but then you are carting that weight around the 90% city driving you do, and the owner is having to pay for all those batteries and it mostly doesn't make sense. But you need the bigger battery to enable intercity travel because not only does range scale with batteries, so does charging.

If you use ABRP to try and plan a medium length trip in any of the 'city' rated cars its just super super painful. Some of them top out charging at 40kw. Which means that while you might accept that you will have to stop quite often if you venture out of your city, not only are you stopping, you are stopping for an -hour-, every single time. Drive for 90 minutes, stop for 60. Which sucks.

The 4680 addresses this by enabling higher currant and better cooling while charging - enabling a small tesla battery to possibly hit higher rates? An inside EV's article I found (just the top google result, not deep research), suggested that a full model 3 sized pack could hit 275KW for the first 50%. If we go for a small pack of 30kwh (would be over 100 miles in a model 3, could it be 150 in a small car?) it would be hitting 110kw for the first 50%, and still at 80KW at 70-80%.

Now you are at less than 15 minutes to reclaim 100 miles, and you can use the SC's so they are everywhere.

Still not ideal, but to me, that moves a small batteried 'city' car into one that you could, in a pinch, get around the country in. Drive 1.5 hours, stop for 15 minutes is muuuch more acceptable. You would be stopping every 3rd SC, rather than every 5th-6th.

Or is the small/second car's ability to get up and down the country if needed only something my family cares about?

 

[Adopado]

You could also see it at 1 LR battery pack in a £50k big car with £10k profit, or 3 model 2's (or whatever) with 0.3 packs at £20k and 5k profit - which is better comes down to specifics which we can't even guess at. But the 3 small cars vs 1 big one actually do more to accelerate humanity towards a BEV future (or whatever the tesla goal wording is).

Unfortunately a small car has pretty much the same number of parts as a larger car so the costs of production are not so very different. You can't churn them out at 3 times the rate. You always make more money on more expensive models ... because you can make fewer of them and sell for a higher price. It's a real challenge and certainly needs some big manufacturers on board to scale enough to make the numbers work. Of course we have to have (profitable to build yet cheaper) smaller EVs sooner or later and I would be interested in one so long as it tips over the 200 mile range and has rapid charging (similar to my SR+). For Tesla to jump into small EV manufacture within the next 2 or 3 years I agree with the suggestion that they need partnerships. If they threw out the idea of needing to carry on the EV evangelism they could almost certainly make more money (in my opinion) by sticking to the higher end like they've done to date (though I would prefer it they didn't).

 

[WannabeOwner]

I would be interested in one so long as it tips over the 200 mile range

Just out of curiosity; why do you had a requirement for 200 mile range for a small car (real world range I assume? otherwise if that's actually 150 real-world miles then I'm with you)

If it is only car, and needs to do all journeys, then I can see it. But if it is second-car then is 200 miles necessary? Assuming you have charging available when you arrive that's a 3.5 hour drive ... if I was doing that often I think I would want a "bigger" car.

 

[DenkiJidousha]

A smaller 4 seater Tesla could very well be a primary/only car, so a quoted range of at least 200 miles (enough for 150 real world miles in all conditions) makes sense to me.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I’m not sure it’s linked to the battery form, if anything Tesla are moving to LFP batteries at the ‘economy’ end, if that’s what we mean by small. It’s also hard so see what more they can strip from a M3 RWD to make it cheaper. Maybe some of the cameras and say it’s not FSD capable, but that’s not likely to save big amounts of cash. Switch to a metal roof but is metal with headliner etc cheaper than gluing in a piece of glass?

 

[Adopado]

Just out of curiosity; why do you had a requirement for 200 mile range for a small car (real world range I assume? otherwise if that's actually 150 real-world miles then I'm with you)

If it is only car, and needs to do all journeys, then I can see it. But if it is second-car then is 200 miles necessary? Assuming you have charging available when you arrive that's a 3.5 hour drive ... if I was doing that often I think I would want a "bigger" car.

Yes ... I want a smaller car that does everything, not as a second car. I don't want to continue being a multi car household so it has to cover everything... and I don't live in a city so a routine shopping trip to bigger supermarkets and shops is nearly 50 mile round trip and a round trip to our nearest city is 100 miles so I'm not talking "city car" that rarely does more than 10 or 15 miles locally. I don't have family and dogs to accomodate and up to now have been quite happy with a car not much bigger than a Ford Fiesta. (You are correct that when I say "tipping over 200 miles range" I mean on paper so therefore with less for real world use.) When I initially put down my money in 2016 to reserve a Model 3 I really expected it to be smaller than it turned out. In fact I had more or less decided not to buy it after I saw the dimensions and realised that it would be less than ideal for narrow country roads ... but then I had a test drive and the rest is history!

 

[GRiLLA]

Yes ... I want a smaller car that does everything, not as a second car. I don't want to continue being a multi car household so it has to cover everything... and I don't live in a city so a routine shopping trip to bigger supermarkets and shops is nearly 50 mile round trip and a round trip to our nearest city is 100 miles so I'm not talking "city car" that rarely does more than 10 or 15 miles locally. I don't have family and dogs to accomodate and up to now have been quite happy with a car not much bigger than a Ford Fiesta. (You are correct that when I say "tipping over 200 miles range" I mean on paper so therefore with less for real world use.) When I initially put down my money in 2016 to reserve a Model 3 I really expected it to be smaller than it turned out. In fact I had more or less decided not to buy it after I saw the dimensions and realised that it would be less than ideal for narrow country roads ... but then I had a test drive and the rest is history!

The only point is Tesla doing this would be if they can make something that stands out from the Zoe, e208 etc. Ideally crush them on price, although I think Tesla are really more about premium. Entering here at similar price points seems pointless.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I had more or less decided not to buy it after I saw the dimensions and realised that it would be less than ideal for narrow country roads ... but then I had a test drive and the rest is history!

Yes, it is big. had Model-S originally (actually Wifee's daily-driver) and she found it big. Moving to Model-3 wasn't really her idea of small, like a Golf, either.

I guess we've got used to it, but definitely feel that both are somewhat large-to-park and large-for-country-lanes.

 

[Adopado]

The only point is Tesla doing this would be if they can make something that stands out from the Zoe, e208 etc. Ideally crush them on price, although I think Tesla are really more about premium. Entering here at similar price points seems pointless.

I agree. I will be surprised if Tesla do the small car ... I would like a smaller hatchback Tesla but I don't think I'm going to get it ... there's too much good business to be had in the segments where they already lead.

 

[thegreenguy]

My guess is that Tesla's small EV cars probably wouldn't have any steering wheel and pedals and purely FSD only

Probably but that is not the only reason to have a small EV. I think a lot of Asian countries will get value from a small EV and may not require the long range for mostly city driving. In fact, the start stop traffic is a positive functionality for a city car with re-gen.

My guess is that any 'small' Tesla would be made in partnership with a company that could mass produce at the sort of global scale that a small vehicle may need. My money would be on Toyota.

The "machine that makes the machine" is what Musk is working on. That means it will be about building scalable factories. With the current productivity of 10 hours per car for Tesla compared to 30 hours for a VW, they are well on their way to building large scalable and cheaper cars.

I think Tesla will reach 10m cars in the coming decade equivalent or bigger than Toyota/VW.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I think Tesla will reach 10m cars in the coming decade

Tesla have a goal of 20M by 2030 !

 

[hill]

Small cars? Heck, they can't even get chips for their big cars much less the cybertruck or roadster. So Don't hold your breath for a ride with MUCH smaller margins.

 

[Lleo]

Honda-e is £35k, model 3 is £45k. Would a smaller £38-40k car really cut into their margins that much? I think because they are an American company a small car is less likely, but I think with the Tesla brand value a small car can still be sold for a premium if they desired.

 

[Avendit]

Honda-e is £35k, model 3 is £45k. Would a smaller £38-40k car really cut into their margins that much? I think because they are an American company a small car is less likely, but I think with the Tesla brand value a small car can still be sold for a premium if they desired.

But with their 'accelerate the sustainable transport revolution' strapline, they might choose to stick with a cost+ model.

Hard to know how small they will aim for. 1 step down to an ID3/golf size would sell like hotcakes in the EU, but would eat into a lot of people that are currently stretching to a SR+. Fiesta/Corsa size would be nice, but is still expected to be a do everything car.

My hope is it's the 1/2 class smaller than that - Suzuki swift or polo sized. Small enough that the Tesla tech makes it viable where others are only offering 90 miles range, big enough to be useful.

Smaller than that (although my wife loved her string of Seat Arosa 's) is getting a bit niche. I'd love I vauxhall Adam sized EV, but appreciate it doesn't appeal to everyone!

 

[WannabeOwner]

Hard to know how small they will aim for

I find it surprising how many M3 / MY Tesla are selling in the UK, given that they are expensive to buy and top-end insurance.

From SMMT

Tesla didn't show in SMMT top 10 in January - start of quarter, quite possibly 0 sold. Model-Y arrived in Feb ... but even so, sales of Model-3 were also strong. Presumably March Model-Y will be high filing back orders, will be interesting to see YTD at end of March.

A surprise to me that Tesla models would be up amongst much cheaper models.

Corsa from £15,485 - 48-69 mpg combined
Mini from £16,045 - 31-45 city, 51-64 highway
Mokka from £19,805 - 47.1 - 51.4 mpg
Niro from £24,105 - 1.5 Hybrid - 58.9 mpg, PHEV £30,185 201.8 mpg

Model 3 from £42,500
Model Y from £54,990

 

[spdpsba]

But with their 'accelerate the sustainable transport revolution' strapline, they might choose to stick with a cost+ model.

Hard to know how small they will aim for. 1 step down to an ID3/golf size would sell like hotcakes in the EU, but would eat into a lot of people that are currently stretching to a SR+. Fiesta/Corsa size would be nice, but is still expected to be a do everything car.

My hope is it's the 1/2 class smaller than that - Suzuki swift or polo sized. Small enough that the Tesla tech makes it viable where others are only offering 90 miles range, big enough to be useful.

Smaller than that (although my wife loved her string of Seat Arosa 's) is getting a bit niche. I'd love I vauxhall Adam sized EV, but appreciate it doesn't appeal to everyone!

Tesla at the moment isn’t going to do a smaller version as Elon rightly said during the GigaBerlin opening - the demand for the current models are so high they are not even exploring the trucks, roadster and Cyber truck production. Tesla sort of follows Apple in terms of their product line ups. If Tesla comes up with another model my guess is it would closely resemble the new iPad Air - the base version will be a model Y but a slightly smaller version (with a Hatch look to appeal US and European markets) with only LFP that will have around 200-220 WLTP priced temptingly around £35000. The next version will be a LR (Li/Nickel) with a price range above Model 3 SR but a couple of grands below 3 LR and so on.

Even this to happen, I guess it will take 5-8 years and may coincide with the deadline the EU has put in to ditch ICE cars and as usual at the expense of Elon backtracking on Roadster.