2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[avoigt]

Assuming Nvidia can deliver on this promise, does this mean Tesla's may get Level 5 capability by mid-18?

Thats a valid question. Nvidia does name Tesla in the presentation as a development partner therefore I expect them to get it once available. Does someone know if Tesla is getting always the "latest and greatest" from Nvidia based on existing contracts?

Would make sense to me and enables customer waiting for their cars know regardless how long they have to wait for their M3 they have the futures HW included that can be enabled once legal regulations and SW updates allow it.

"For its current generation Drive PX2, NVIDIA has said it has 225 customers, including car and truck makers, Tier 1 auto suppliers, high-definition mapping companies, start-ups and research institutions. These customers can make use of PX2-class software when they upgrade to Pegasus chips, NVIDIA said.

These could encompass existing customers Tesla, including its latest Model 3. Others include Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE) Audi A8, the first car to use Level 3 semi-autonomous driving features, Toyota Motor’s next-generation autonomous cars and Geely’s Volvo business."

NVIDIA unveils next-generation platform for fully autonomous cars

 

[elasalle]

Thats a valid question. Nvidia does name Tesla in the presentation as a development partner therefore I expect them to get it once available. Does someone know if Tesla is getting always the "latest and greatest" from Nvidia based on existing contracts?

Would make sense to me and enables customer waiting for their cars know regardless how long they have to wait for their M3 they have the futures HW included that can be enabled once legal regulations and SW updates allow it.

"For its current generation Drive PX2, NVIDIA has said it has 225 customers, including car and truck makers, Tier 1 auto suppliers, high-definition mapping companies, start-ups and research institutions. These customers can make use of PX2-class software when they upgrade to Pegasus chips, NVIDIA said.

These could encompass existing customers Tesla, including its latest Model 3. Others include Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE) Audi A8, the first car to use Level 3 semi-autonomous driving features, Toyota Motor’s next-generation autonomous cars and Geely’s Volvo business."

NVIDIA unveils next-generation platform for fully autonomous cars

.." This dramatic improvement is a pre-condition for developing and testing future autonomous cars, experts said .."

Looks like the hardware component will be commoditized and soon all players will be using the same platform or something similar. (The hardware already installed in Tesla should be older generation).

However, level 5 battle will be won in software. Hopefully Tesla has a big head start and lead on it.

 

[madodel]

Before we get to bent out of shape over twitter, Mark B and MS have a combined nothing burger for followers and I think my cat has more followers. This shows how much credibility they have. Yes, people follow or monitor $tsla and they have a lot of exposure there, but I follow those whom I find to provide valuable and relevant info on twitter and no one is following those idiots.

For reference.. Evanex and Option_sniper both have more followers then Mark B. and MS combined.

But how many sado-masochists are among them? Smiegel's got a lock on those.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Bought 410 more shares at open today 346.80

 

[Alketi]

Assuming Nvidia can deliver on this promise, does this mean Tesla's may get Level 5 capability by mid-18?

Tesla hired AMD/Apple's chip expert, Jim Keller, a year and a half ago to lead the Autopilot Hardware team, and is now reportedly in some further talks with AMD.

We don't know the timeframes, but we can be fairly sure that the plan is for Tesla's partnership with nVidia to end, with Tesla eventually using their own, in-house/licensed hardware solution.

Some napkin math: if Tesla's solution were $250 cheaper than a commercial alternative and it ships in 500K cars, that's $125M savings.

 

[austinEV]

wow, quite the big candle there.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla hired AMD/Apple's chip expert, Jim Keller, a year and a half ago to lead the Autopilot Hardware team, and is now reportedly in some further talks with AMD.

We don't know the timeframes, but we can be fairly sure that the plan is for Tesla's partnership with nVidia to end, with Tesla eventually using their own, in-house/licensed hardware solution.

Some napkin math: if Tesla's solution were $250 cheaper than a commercial alternative and it ships in 500K cars, that's $125M savings.

The hardware is not the problem or the solution. The hardware is and will be so cheap in 5 years, but it wont matter if you dont have the software. Any car company can buy nVidia hardware but not many can do the software. I have no doubt that this is Tesla's edge. Certainly developing their own SOC has some advantages for cost and getting the exact features and capabilities that they want and not paying for things they dont need. Maybe its an issue of wanting to be more vertically integrated in one of the most important components in the vehicles. This could be more about HW4 then HW3, meaning they are preparing for a time when they are trying to shave nickles and dimes off the cost per unit while having the exact processing power and features they need. No more and no less.

Remember that Autonomy without EV is like tits on a bull. To me, this makes GM a real competitor with Cruze and the Bolt as they would make a viable solution. Who can get their first? In my opinion, this is what is driving EV pushes more then the fact that EV are more appealing then ICEv, as ICEv literally has no place in an autonomous driving world, unless they can get the cost of fuel and maintenance to 1/3 what it costs today.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

wow, quite the big candle there.

We may be about to witness why FUDsters were freaking out this morning.

 

[Reciprocity]

We may be about to witness why FUDsters were freaking out this morning.

im guessing the shorts are being forced to pour gas on this fire by covering before their positions completely implode. I dont know enough about short selling to know how this works, but I can imagine seeing a deep sea of red right after you thought you had Tesla in your cross hairs, then Bam! some simple revised price target from MS destroys your dreams.. I love it.

 

[1kEE]

I'm guessing the Nasdaq drop has to level off before Tsla makes a run for 350. Be fun to watch it push though 350.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

im guessing the shorts are being forced to pour gas on this fire by covering before their positions completely implode. I dont know enough about short selling to know how this works, but I can imagine seeing a deep sea of red right after you thought you had Tesla in your cross hairs, then Bam! some simple revised price target from MS destroys your dreams.. I love it.

It's a bit of a domino effect, but I don't think we'll see a 2013-type short squeeze before SP surges above $450-500 range.

I do, however, expect SP to start a rise towards that range fairly soon. As always, not an advice.

I think news of 3,500+ weekly Model 3's in December may get the ball rolling, and 20%+ Model 3 gross margin in 2Q18 would end the bears.

 

[1kEE]

Macros on a bounce from the drop and I feel a stab at 350 about to happen!

 

[ggr]

Tesla got stronger, that's what changed

A few weeks difference in product ramping or reveal changes nothing, but every day which passes with Tesla going forward and the opposition doing essentially nothing gives Tesla an even bigger lead. Now we see Jonas highlighting infrastructure (thanks Mulder), at last, which is going to weigh heavily on the minds of shorts; they're going to get spanked to hell and back.

Still he appears to value Tesla Energy at zero, though.

 

[Reciprocity]

Still he appears to value Tesla Energy at zero, though.

In a way, that is a good thing..haha. How much of a surprise is 10B from Solar roof and storage going to surprise people next year. Assuming 20K Solar roofs would be about billion dollars alone from something that did not exist just a year ago. I still think tesla could install microgrids for their own charging network for Semi's and cars in the next couple of years and never need to sell a single micro grid outside of Tesla. Currently Tesla is paying some rate for charging and will be passing along most of that cost over the next few years with Model 3 and Semi, but if they where providing their own energy, they could keep all that revenue (cash flow). This is also a very captive audience because there will be no other viable solution for semis and people on long trips. Similar to how you must have power from the power company to have lights in your home. Utilities generate lots of cash, which is why they always have consistent dividends. Tesla microgrids to fuel supercharging is also more appealing then paying for green energy generation that could be consumed by others which would magnify their efforts to move people from fossil fuels to clean renewable energy.

 

[avoigt]

I did speculate that legacy automaker don't know yet how to make money with EVs but assumed in the last years they build silently a business model and worked towards execution. The latest comments from Fiats Sergio Marchionne make me wonder how they want to stay in business the next 10 years without a plan. Once Tesla makes money with its cars and gets cash flow positive , predicted in the next 12 - 24 months the disruption in the market will gain pace and some of the big not moving elephants may get a serious problem....

"We still don't have a viable model for delivering an electric car. As much as I like Elon Musk, and he's a good friend, and actually he's done a phenomenal job of marketing Telsa, I remain unconvinced of a new economic viability of the model that he's pitching. So I think we need to be careful, because when we embrace electrification, and I made comments on the fact that we lose money on every Fiat 500, the electric that we sell in the U.S. Now that's reflective of the 2011-2010 costs in terms of components. Those costs have come down. If I were to do it again, I would certainly reduce the amount of the loss, but I would not make any money. And you can't run economic entities on losses. It doesn't happen.

 

[luvb2b]

extreme long term tesla chart shows a classic bull flag setup. need a high volume break of 360 area to trigger breakout entry.
i suspect this is why the last breakout over 355 was chased so hard, because both daily and monthly charts had breakout setups and may have attracted investors who operate on different timeframes.

 

[zdriver]

I can imagine seeing a deep sea of red right after you thought you had Tesla in your cross hairs, then Bam! some simple revised price target from MS destroys your dreams.. I love it.

I'm feeling particularly smug over their predicament, since I had a lot of short term options loaded for a breakout back in May after the Q1 ER, before MS issued a downgrade on a Monday morning, absolutely crushing my position. Considering what happened a couple weeks later, I'm almost certain it would've broke out, had MS not downgraded it then.

 

[MartinAustin]

The latest comments from Fiats Sergio Marchionne make me wonder how they want to stay in business the next 10 years without a plan.

Sergio Marchionne is retiring in about 18 months. This has been public knowledge for a long time.

In other words, Marchionne has been standing over the body of Fiat all these years that BEVs have been grabbing market share, holding his foot firmly on Fiat's throat, and Fiat is running out of oxygen. The question is, when Marchionne walks out of the office for the last time, can Fiat re-jig themselves fast enough and recover, before they find themselves at the back of the BEV expertise race and potentially in a lot of trouble?

TSLA is doing great today. Nice climb from $342. Nevertheless, volatility abounds...

 

[zdriver]

Sell spikes on TSLA in the last ~30 minutes are not dark pool or algo related. Probably just some deep pocketed short.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Sell spikes on TSLA in the last ~30 minutes are not dark pool or algo related. Probably just some deep pocketed short.

If bears wanted to paint a certain picture, how difficult would it be for them to direct their trades through dark pools or algos?