2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

SP is doing just fine
simply trying to shake off all the weak hands including weak longs and sucker in naïve shorts
will keep on frustrating both longs and shorts until it's ready to take off
technically looks just fine
no chart damage done

 

[BioSehnsucht]

This gives me hope that APv2 can do what it says, even in low-light.

This may have been in jest, but ...

The performance of SpaceX landings cannot be directly extrapolated to expected performance of AP. The rockets land using high precision guidance from GPS and so forth, with radar to get the zero vertical velocity are zero vertical distance from deck correct, but no cameras are involved, and they're not having to watch out for all those other (nonexistent) rockets flying around them as they fly. I'm not saying AP2 won't work, just that they're apples and oranges - it's extremely impressive for entirely different reasons and demonstrates mostly unrelated but impressive technical prowess.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Sorry for caps:

TESLA INC $TSLA : MORGAN STANLEY RAISES PRICE TARGET TO $379 FROM $317; RATING EQUAL-WEIGHT

*Walter Bloomberg on Twitter

 

[bdy0627]

SP is doing just fine
simply trying to shake off all the weak hands including weak longs and sucker in naïve shorts
will keep on frustrating both longs and shorts until it's ready to take off
technically looks just fine
no chart damage done

Even if the chart started to look bad, I have a hard time believing it would make much difference once the ramp happens. Do you think otherwise?

 

[D-egg-O]

The latest WSJ piece by Tim Higgins is a repeat of John Broder's NYT piece when the Model S came out. Classic FUD that, unfortunately, works and weak longs sell.

I've been thinking what could drive the SP down when Model 3 launches and I am reminded of a NYT piece by Broder claiming the Model S range is cold weather was weak.

And Elon's response.

This is why I pay attention to who (author) is writing about Tesla more than the organization publishing it. I wouldn't put it past anyone like Broder publishing pieces like the one mentioned when Model 3 comes out.

 

[bdy0627]

Sorry for caps:

TESLA INC $TSLA : MORGAN STANLEY RAISES PRICE TARGET TO $379 FROM $317; RATING EQUAL-WEIGHT

*Walter Bloomberg on Twitter

Nice timing! This is like the War of the Analysts now.

 

[bdy0627]

Sorry for caps:

TESLA INC $TSLA : MORGAN STANLEY RAISES PRICE TARGET TO $379 FROM $317; RATING EQUAL-WEIGHT

*Walter Bloomberg on Twitter

I can't confirm this with a search so far. Anyone have a link?

 

[1kEE]

Sorry for caps:

TESLA INC $TSLA : MORGAN STANLEY RAISES PRICE TARGET TO $379 FROM $317; RATING EQUAL-WEIGHT

*Walter Bloomberg on Twitter

Is this info reliable? Don't see the announcement anywhere besides that Walter Bloomberg twitter feed, and I've never heard of that guy.

 

[Mike Smith]

I can't confirm this with a search so far. Anyone have a link?

Morgan Stanley Keeps Their Hold Rating on Tesla Motors - Analyst Ratings

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is this info reliable? Don't see the announcement anywhere besides that Walter Bloomberg twitter feed, and I've never heard of that guy.

I follow him and he's been reliable in the past.

 

[zdriver]

@zdriver - Why would anyone buy nearly $20 million in one transaction? And SP didn't move...

Probably because they wanted to, and they could. Large firms can see the full orderbook, meaning they can see clear as day if there's enough liquidity to buy a ton without moving the price.

Is it significant that it shows as Dark Pool?

Somewhat, maybe. Means it's likely institutional, or large-ish trading firm or similar.

Thanks for info. An hour later, at 1:59pm, we saw 58,000 shares sold in a minute. Might it be possible that the dark pool accumulation of shares was earmarked by someone to be sold in a big block later when volume is lighter, for the purpose of depressing the stock price? Can you see if the 1:59pm transactions from dark pool were primarily buying or selling? I am suggesting that shorts may be accumulating long and dumping those shares at critical times to facilitate pressure on TSLA.

What's curious about the 1:59 high volume is that it had practically no effect upon the stock price. For this reason it is hard to tell if it was buying or selling that initially prompted the volume spike. In contrast, the selling after 3:00pm has had an effect on price.

Slightly confused on times here. The buy spike was at 14:00 (eastern). Nothing anomalous stands out at 14:59, dark pools didn't start selling in volume until 15:02. Net selling from dark pools over the rest of the day did not fully retrace the buy spike at 14:00 - only about half. Again, that's net, so grab a handful of salt.

Dark pool chart -

Today had all the makings of bots being set up to trip 'stop loss' orders for trading stock picked up recently. I have NO idea if that is what happened but I bought a small protective put position: Oct 20 $330 early afternoon when it looked like we were not going to get heavy buying by traders taking advantage of this dip.

Indeed, most of the selling today was algos. Probably taking advantage of the low volume bank holiday, and playing the gap that was left last week. Can see one case in the morning where an algo may have tried to test the lows/blow some stops, but then stopped out itself an hour or so later.

Algo chart -

 

[zdriver]

Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3
$TSLA short interest $9.8 billion,shorts up $397 million in mark-to-market profits today on 3.9% price drop on Semi Truck Delay. @S3Partners

 

[Curt Renz]

Is this info reliable? Don't see the announcement anywhere besides that Walter Bloomberg twitter feed, and I've never heard of that guy.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Tesla, Raises Price Target from $317 to $379

 

[FredTMC]

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Tesla, Raises Price Target from $317 to $379

Thx. Haven't seen a note out of MS Adam J yet.

Let us know if there's a note with this PT increase

 

[Papafox]

Probably because they wanted to, and they could. Large firms can see the full orderbook, meaning they can see clear as day if there's enough liquidity to buy a ton without moving the price.

Slightly confused on times here. The buy spike was at 14:00 (eastern). Nothing anomalous stands out at 14:59, dark pools didn't start selling in volume until 15:02. Net selling from dark pools over the rest of the day did not fully retrace the buy spike at 14:00 - only about half. Again, that's net, so grab a handful of salt.

Your response was helpful. The selling that took place later in the afternoon doesn't look like it was a direct result of a dark pool player selling the shares picked up at about 2 pm (because dark pool net trading remained above the 2:00 pm level). Also, your talk about viewing the order book explains why someone could buy more than 50,000 shares without moving the price (the order book showed there were sellers at that price for that quantity). I imagine big shorts could also use the order book to predict the opposite effect (big price change on a big sale in certain circumstances) Much thanks.

 

[geneclean55]

I guess we might have some trapped shorts tomorrow.

 

[Navin]

2 wsj hit pieces, 3 shareholder lawsuit threats - - big volume sale orders - yep - shorts are staging a bear attack. Be interesting to see who wins this tug of war.

 

[bdy0627]

2 wsj hit pieces, 3 shareholder lawsuit threats - - big volume sale orders - yep - shorts are staging a bear attack. Be interesting to see who wins this tug of war.

I think this is how it's going to go until it's crystal clear that Model 3s are coming out in droves, which probably means choppy waters for a bit.

 

[22522]

F

I think this is how it's going to go until it's crystal clear that Model 3s are coming out in droves, which probably means choppy waters for a bit.

For a year

 

[theschnell]

I think in 6 months or less we'll move higher and stay higher than where we are today. I've been wrong before though