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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Well, I guess that's my point. It's religion. Some believe it has some importance, and others think it's just nonsense that distracts from actual discussion.
No disrespect... but have you seen some of the tangential commentary that floods this thread from time to time? TA discussion is the least of our worries.
 
That's what I'm trying to encourage. But since TA fosters disagreements similar to the reading of horoscopes, postings here that contain even minor observations (golden cross on Monday!), will very likely generate counter-opinions, and counter-counter-opinions, and on and on. Can we just leave it for the thread where it belongs, where everybody reading is actually interested?
I don't believe that someone mentioning something about TA is more likely to generate disagreement than any other topic, probably less.

Your posts are the only disagreement or discussion. No disrespect, but if you don't like disagreements and discussions about TA you could just stop?
 
Has any one seen what Mercedes Benz is up to? I was in San Francisco yesterday at Starbucks near the Moscone Center where there was a 'green energy' conference going on. A group of people with logo shirts "Mercedes-Benz Energy" caught my eye and look at what they are up to... Mercedes-Benz Energy Looks to me like they are gunning for the solar/powerwall market.

Yes, a brief look at the specs of what they offer shows that their product is more expensive *and* inferior to the Powerwal 2.
 
So we all have been waiting for that short squeeze... but doesnt it look rather like stock price got manipulated down and the shorts are exiting at lower prices bailed out by weak margin-called longs ?

What if the real short squeeze never comes

I don't think it (a short squeeze) will. IMHO the shorts are some of the brokerages "best friends". They provide liquidity for the stock. They pay daily interest. They pay probably more commissions than many of us longs who just buy and hold (boring and unprofitable). So what I see is that the brokerages will help the shorts when things get rough and a short squeeze looks imminent--either add more shares, extend more credit, etc... this of course is for the big shorts. The little ones (retail) will get hosed.
 
It's a matter of cash flow. Using grid power is wayyyy cheaper to set up. That's why Tesla sells solar/storage but doesn't have solar/storage on many of their own buildings.

Edit: sorry, thought this was gen. discussion thread. If anyone cares to reply, please route the convo over there.

Are you kidding me? Did you miss place your Kool aid? Cash flow is tight in my family as well and I just bought and financed solar. To me it's as simple as going to the bank with Tesla semi orders in one hand and patented new charger + solar and battery orders in the other. While money is cheap, get it while it's hot baby. What's the tax credit for utility grade solar?
 
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Heh - your dream scenario is my nightmare scenario, as a TSLA shareholder and investor. I'm open to the possibility that what I think right now as a nightmare, could be proven otherwise. But with approximately no information in hand, my immediate reaction to Tesla trying to be the new logistics industry is that may well prove to be the end of my TSLA ownership experience.

It might enable capturing the most profits on a micro / individual truck scale, but it also looks like a good approach for delaying electrification of the logistics industry and distributing as much market share to other companies as possible.

Two primary reasons I see - one financial, and one single supplier risk.
Financially, it would put TSLA into a situation where the company is funding each vehicle up front, and being paid for it over an extended period. As a growth company, that'll turn into outrageous cash flow some day. Until then, it's a cash vacuum that can't be satiated (if the product is that good, and I think we both think it will be).

Supplier risk - if you're a logistics company today, and tomorrow you're leasing / buying transportation from Tesla, you've taken on single supplier risk in the core activity that your company performs (move stuff from A to B, on time and correctly). At the very least, even if Tesla really does save a LOT of money, every supplier is going to be eagerly backing any and every competitor they can find, and helping competition get something comparable to market so they can get another supplier in to compete with Tesla.

Or of course - Tesla could figure they can be a better mover of things from A to B, because of their cost advantage at the truck, and try to outcompete Wal-Mart's in-house logistics, FedEx, UPS, and everybody else that's in the business of moving the right stuff from A to B (replace the whole logistics industry). I'm thinking that's a bad cultural fit for Tesla, and a good way to convert big piles of Tesla shareholder value into small piles of shareholder value.


The business model I want to see is heavy on cash up front for Tesla, in exchange for trucks and infrastructure equipment needs for those trucks. I want the logistics companies to be fronting that cash (whether it's cash, or they borrow from financial industry is up to them). Then Tesla can focus on their unique value add to this industry - a truck and energy system that is cheaper for a logistics company can get anywhere else, and the logistics companies can be left alone to focus on their unique value add to the logistics industry - moving the right stuff from A to B, efficiently and effectively.

Don't piss on my boot and tell me it's raining on my parade. I think that's how the saying goes. I get your points and they are many, so many I couldn't read them all. My only saving Grace is I like the idea of Tesla controlling their own destiny and their ability to innovate while they do so. I just don't trust old school industries to see the light. If they do, then it will be clear to us and good for Tesla. I do see a problem with your dream of heavy cash upfront, I like it but only if it's financed by the semi owner, similar to sales of cars but with fuel included, or atleast the first million miles. If they can pull that off then I agree, other wise I'm fine with $105B I'm cash flow as a UTILITY which is unique in the fact that Tesla can leverage that at any time for cash. When you control the charging, you own then, just like my utility owns me unless I disconnect from the grid.
 
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I don't think it (a short squeeze) will. IMHO the shorts are some of the brokerages "best friends". They provide liquidity for the stock. They pay daily interest. They pay probably more commissions than many of us longs who just buy and hold (boring and unprofitable). So what I see is that the brokerages will help the shorts when things get rough and a short squeeze looks imminent--either add more shares, extend more credit, etc... this of course is for the big shorts. The little ones (retail) will get hosed.

Not banking on a squeeze. The reason is that just like weak longs, the weak shorts bailed on this recent dip. What shocks me is the shear volume and frankly infantile quality of the FUD. Just do a search for $tsla on $twtr and see for yourself. The biggest bears are resulting to some of the dumbest stuff I have ever seen, and I have seen some really dumb stuff. Without really good FUD, you won't get enough shorts willing to mortgage their house like some longs in this forum have. In short their pimp hand is weak and build pimp hand is strong. Short squeeze could really only happen if the shorts had a ton of conviction, but we're really wrong. The fact is most of the shorts don't have the conviction required. They are weak, not mortgaging their house to maintain their short position. Some are and will, but not enough to counter to massive and stubborn longs.
 
Heh - your dream scenario is my nightmare scenario, as a TSLA shareholder and investor. I'm open to the possibility that what I think right now as a nightmare, could be proven otherwise. But with approximately no information in hand, my immediate reaction to Tesla trying to be the new logistics industry is that may well prove to be the end of my TSLA ownership experience.

I am on the other side. I think the semi unveiling is coinciding with the start of Tesla Logistics/Network/whatever-you-want-to-call-it. Moving (over roads) parcel or freight or human or humans from A to B to x is similar enough to tackle with one development team. Similar to the Model 3/S/X, I do not think buying a Tesla Semi will require participation in the Tesla network, but I do hope the benefit will be great enough that the best choice is fairly obvious.
 
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So we all have been waiting for that short squeeze... but doesnt it look rather like stock price got manipulated down and the shorts are exiting at lower prices bailed out by weak margin-called longs ?

What if the real short squeeze never comes
1, betting on a VW type squeeze is not an investment strategy, if it happens, great but if it's part of your investment thesis, i'd go back to the drawing board. Has been said many times by others.
2, Some here encourage shorts, I'm in the opposite camp. I think less shorts would do a lot of good. Their smear campaign has successfully fooled many good people who simply don't put in the time to read articles beyond the title or search for the truth.
I mentioned Tesla during a conversation about investments today and first thing the guy I was chatting with brought up was they only survive because of government subsidies.... I replied "like, the ones they paid back?" Anyways, he was pretty gone to the darkside, for no apparent good reason.
The more people that know the truth about Tesla, the more investors we'll have. Which is just as good if not better than shorts covering. I think TSLA would be trading higher if it was mostly strong longs and the odd profit taking without so much fear or selling at critical times for exaggerated drops. Word of mouth will get out and drown out the naysayers, this more than anything is why we need the model 3, and as many as possible.
 
I've been wrong too many times now to count, but a few weeks ago a sold a bunch of 340 strike putts. Then the dip happened, and I held tight. As a precaution, I rolled them out to the 28th but kept the strike the same (and made even more money for now). I can't imagine that we don't climb over 340 leading up to the night of the reveal/1st deliveries. Worse case scenario, I roll them out further, but I'm expecting another dip after earnings (which I think is going to look really bad on paper), so I don't want to still be selling putts that week.
 
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