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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Depends on the M3 production ramp. If it's good or bad we should know or have a good indication on the Q2 CC.

I just bought six J18 $600's in case (IMO about 70%) it's positive news. Prices ranged from $2.80 to $3.90.
I've been thinking of adding to my shares. Get in at this $369 level or wait until after Q1 results?
 
again with the quarterly deliveries....

Model S/X quarterly deliveries never mattered, and they matter even less this quarter.

I'll be watching Model 3 deliveries though. That does have the potential to move the stock in 2H17.
now that you've used this excuse for 10 years... what will your excuse be next quarter?

Why would a TSLA shareholder need to provide an "excuse" for the share price multiplying over 20 times since its IPO 7 years ago and achieving an all-time high on Friday? It's grown nearly 10-fold since I first bought shares in early 2013.

ValueAnalyst was offering an "explanation" that short sellers or those unwilling to buy the stock have not yet been able to grasp.
 
Why would a TSLA shareholder need to provide an "excuse" for the share price multiplying over 20 times since its IPO 7 years ago and achieving an all-time high on Friday? It's grown nearly 10-fold since I first bought shares in early 2013.

ValueAnalyst was offering an "explanation" that short sellers or those unwilling to buy the stock have not yet been able to grasp.

Oh haha. I hadn't realized I was being attacked by the two I've "ignored." Thanks for responding to them for me.
 
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Navigant: Tesla’s lead in ‘well invested’ California SGIP programme a surprise.

Developers and system host customers apply for SGIP, selecting their manufacturer of choice to get their funding. While the picture is constantly shifting as successive steps are applied for, the early diagnosis was that Tesla appears to be the biggest winner out of the manufacturers. More than half the early applicant funds selected Tesla equipment, either Powerwalls for residential or Powerpacks for commercial & industrial applications, making up around US$29 million of allocated funds.

“It’s somewhat surprising to see Tesla with such an overwhelming lead in the programme,” Forni’s colleague at Navigant, energy storage analyst Alex Eller, said. “The re-designed rules were supposed to limit the ability for any company to capture the majority of the funding, using a lottery system. However my understanding of the programme rules is that companies can submit as many projects as they have, but the actual funding is given to them in a lottery system. I would assume that Tesla simply has way more projects eligible for funding than any other company.”

Adam Forni offered some possible explanations for this runaway lead, including Tesla’s ability to manufacture at scale and low cost, the company’s fortuitous location in the heart of California and its generally high profile and popularity with eco-conscious consumers and businesses.
 
I anticipate a possible or even probable dip after the M3 reveal up until Q2 ER.

Even then, unless the ER is big, trading will be more focused on M3.


After the M3 reveal, it's difficult to predict what the share price will do until the Semi reveal in Sep. I would expect a rising stock price starting a few weeks before the Semi reveal.
I believe that the M3 reveal will be a substantial catalyst unless there's any indication of problems with the M3 production ramp. The unexpected low prices of options will be a substantial catalyst.

The associated additional features and price reductions opfor the MS-MX will be substantial catalysts as well.

The only substantial negative potential that I see Q2 or otherwise are any indications of problems with the M3 ramp.

Edit Addition:
The final M3 reveal is supposed to be in July? Thanks!
 
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All, as a lurker of this site and leecher of your intellect (very much appreciated), these past few hundred posts have been brutal; let's get back to form. There are no absolutes when looking forward, only degrees of probability, yet some here speak of preferred outcomes as though they are certain and mock differing points of view as though they are impossible. Having contrarians around like username and mmd might be annoying to some, but anything that makes you question your assumptions or way of thinking can be far more valuable to you than an echo chamber of similar thinkers. I'd hate to see valuable contributions not made because of our collective habit to belittle points of view that differ too greatly from the group. If anyone is disregarding certain posts simply based on disagreement, hopefully they are able to overcome their annoyances, and if not this time, the next. I appreciate the users who enhance discussion, even in the face of disagreement. Open, intelligent discussion is a beautiful thing when it occurs.
 
California proposes new $3 billion in incentives to support electric vehicle

California is already leading electric vehicle adoption in the US, but they still need to speed things up if they want to achieve their goal of 1.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) by 2025, and 5 million by 2030. There are currently around 300,000 EVs on California roads today.

A new bill unveiled today would unlock $3 billion worth of incentives for an updated version of California’s current EV rebate.

Maybe CA will start doing more to help their biggest in state manufacturing company? :D
 
I believe that the M3 reveal will be a substantial catalyst unless there's any indication of problems with the M3 production ramp. The unexpected low prices of options will be a substantial catalyst.

The associated additional features and price reductions opfor the MS-MX will be substantial catalysts as well.

The only substantial negative potential that I see Q2 or otherwise are any indications of problems with the M3 ramp.

Edit Addition:
The final M3 reveal is supposed to be in July? Thanks!
I think the only information given so far is that the M3 reveal will happen in July. No date alluded to that I've come across.

To clarify, I think the stock will rise in July up through the reveal as investors continue to want in prior to the historic M3 reveal. My guess is that it will shoot up at the reveal and for several days on the excitement, perhaps for a week or two. If shorts start covering, it could get really interesting. I think it will then get ahead of itself and dip, possibly until the Q2 ER. I like your low risk trade for a major rise in the medium term. In my opinion, there is a likelihood for a big jump in the next 8 weeks. After that, the ramp will be a big catalyst toward the end of the year. I don't think Tesla will want a fast ramp to start as they are working out the issues and further testing the actual cars in the wild. I expect the ramp to really get going in November/December.
 
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