I will say it this way : Elon Musk reponse to German factory employees that they should buy the stock because it will be worth 500B in 5-10 years, is a conservative estimation.
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Price action:
On 9 February in the "You Called It" prediction thread, I gave year-end 2017's closing price of TSLA as $461-466, with apologies that I couldn't be more specific....
I remain quite comfortable with that, and will stick with it. However... I wouldn't be upset if we broach it. Were I to make the prediction today, my crystal ball would tell me we'll close the year at $488.
Link:Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
===>Just giving all of you the means to call out your Moderator, if ever that need arises<=====
Technically speaking, having two PT associated with "You Called It" thread is cheating...
I remember the virtual eye rolling on this thread when TT007 said he was "forcing" himself to buy more shares at 280. It seemed ludicrous at the time. Ah, what I would give for a few more shares of TSLA at 280 right now.
I'd guess even up to $310 per?, but what do I know
AnneBoleyn
Anne Boleyn
Try hearing him go on about this at 180 and what you could have made if you had started investments then- and that was only in October!!!
I'd be lying if I said TT007 didn't somewhat persuade me to purchase some Jan 2019 600C options. (Yes, I understand the risks involved. I was already considering it.)
TrendTrader007
Active Member
well to be very honest i did manage to overcome my own recurrent trepidations and plunked in a sizable $ amount in TSLA common as well as leaps which is now paying off in spades. over the years i have learned that i need to bet against my own emotions. no one is infallible in the markets and i am acutely aware of my own shortcomings. The only edge i have over 99% of traders is that i force myself to act despite my own worst fears. i am not a blind cheerleader of any stock and the kind of money i bet on a single trade puts me at a real risk of gambler's ruin. and i have no desire to be in the poorhouse anymore than the next guy. i will admit that i rarely lose sleep over losing positions because the sheer terror of being massively wrong on a trade forces me to liquidate sooner than later, it is the winning positions which keep me up at night because i have to literally stop myself from raising the size of my bets. i often bet so much that it scares the hell out of me and often it is at an automatic subconscious level.
all in all i must be doing something right because i have increased my net worth approximately 75 times since 2001 and 16 times since 2005 which is 31% and 26% annualized respectively. and this is despite numerous serious missteps. still it is not satisfactory to my own standards and therefore i am intrigued that EM is projecting an annualized return of 25 to 60 % in TSLA shares depending on 10 fold return in 10 vs 5 years. i wonder if i can get 60 % plus returns over next 5 years in TSLA either simply buy and hold or trade it. either ways 60% plus returns over next 5 years might just convince me to ditch my Honda Civic for a Model 3. JK!
TrendTrader007
Active Member
lol just to be clear i hold well over 200 long term TSLA calls expiring in 2018 and 2019 and only ONE, yes that is right, a single call is $600 2019. approximately 110 calls are way OTM and the rest are boring DITM which move way too slow for my satisfaction
And nothing i say on this forum or Twitter should be construed or misconstrued as an advice or recommendation of any sort.
for all you know i may be a two faced liar severely exaggerating my positions and for all you know i could be Chanos, the King of shorts masquerading as a long! either ways i am getting increasingly scared about posting my opinions on social media since i could be terribly wrong and lose myself a ton of money in short order
TrendTrader007
Active Member
having said all the necessary caveats i will say this: and these are all strictly my personal opinions and i could be totally wrong
TSLA is on the verge of being seized by the bulls infact i believe it already is
it traded from 2010 to 2012 under siege by bears
2013 to 2014 seized by bulls
2014 to 2016 seized by bears
2017 to -fill in the blanks- seized by bulls
this is a simple yet extremely profitable way to trade this stock
Period.
Adios!
TSLA is on the verge of being seized by the bulls infact i believe it already is
it traded from 2010 to 2012 under siege by bears
2013 to 2014 seized by bulls
2014 to 2016 seized by bears
2017 to -fill in the blanks- seized by bulls
this is a simple yet extremely profitable way to trade this stock
Period.
Adios!
What's this "adios!" crap?
Side note, Elon converted $10M of convertible notes into TSLA at $300/share.
Tesla - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership
Panasonic stock has gone up 10% in Japan today and tomorrow (so far). Only news seems to be is that they are completing purchase of a subsidiary. Wondering if there might be some relevant Tesla development impacting Panasonic ( e.g., Gigafactory 3).
Wall Street's earnings estimates for Q1 are more than a dollar below what our crew has come up with. I suspect our estimate is better and Wall Street will discover this in the next 6 trading sessions and will quietly start (continue) buying right up until earnings. If Tesla reports earnings anywhere near a dollar, we might finally see that short squeeze.
Paracelsus
Active Member
'Side note?' - if I understand this correctly this is frigging bigly news and one of the key reasons I leave my money long on Tesla for Elon to use - Elon exchanging $10,000,000 of his convertible senior notes to hold 33,333 shares of Tesla at $300 per share today is a Yuuuge vote of confidence in his company's future. How many CEO's would continue to reinvest and hold. In addition to anticipating a smooth Model 3 rollout, he must be very sure of the changes coming to the electrical grid and distributed generation/solar/battery storage to personally bet another $10M againstthe existing paradigm................note to Grid managers - time to pull some heads out of the sand!!!!!! That light at the end of the tunnel is an electric semi!
What was the maturity date on this note? Did Musk have it convert early? And if so, so close to the ER... Is he leaving out more breadcrumbs on the trail for the rest of us to pick up?
Maybe @neroden or @generalenthu have some details?
That and his recent $95M purchase of shares at about $260 (if I remember correctly) during the last capital raise.
"The number denoted represents $10,000,000 of the Zero Coupon Senior Notes due 2020 of SolarCity Corporation" So 2020 is the maturity date, right?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
i personally am continuing to add shares. i will buy more TSLA stock (and not calls) tomorrow
NOT an advice
NOT an advice
TrendTrader007
Active Member
there will be a time when it will be too late to buy TSLA shares
that time is not now
NOT an advice
that time is not now
NOT an advice
TrendTrader007
Active Member
it is too late for to mess with any more call options. Too much uncertainty involved and i could easily end up outsmarting myself at this stage of the game.
Common stock however is still attractive, maybe not as attractive as when it was at $200 or $182 but hell of a lot more attractive than $500+ where it is headed later this year
NOT an advice
Common stock however is still attractive, maybe not as attractive as when it was at $200 or $182 but hell of a lot more attractive than $500+ where it is headed later this year
NOT an advice
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