2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

Since I have staked close to $XXX k of my hard earned money on TSLA call options alone (not counting stock) and I stand to lose most of it if I'm wrong I'll go ahead and painstakingly explain my entire thought process about Tesla not because I feel compelled to do it but because I do make a lot of cryptic and emphatic statements that make me look like the court jester to most people out there.I really could not care less about what anybody thinks of me because at the end of the day I stand to lose or make X. Still I'll go ahead and explain all my thesis with the caveat that I could be horribly and terribly wrong and this is something I'm doing with my personal portfolio and I certainly do not want anybody following my lead this is NOT an investment advice to anybody just my personal opinion and I could be fantastically wrong and lose every single cent that I have and file for bankruptcy just so you guys understand

 

[TrendTrader007]

Okay let's start with yearly chart:
I ask myself what are the odds of a stock like Tesla that has gone up 40%+ in the first 3 months to make A negative reversal and lose all of those gains the answer is slim to none
I mean I'm a simpleminded fellow and not terribly smart but this chart seems like to me wants to go higher

 

[TrendTrader007]

For a stock that has been going sideways for the last 15 quarters which is almost 4 years and is now finally starting to break out of that range after forming an excellent Cup shaped pattern for the last 7 quarters what are the odds that this breakout is going to fail?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Monthly chart of tesla is clearly the most informative because it shows that it is clearly making a bollinger breakout on monthly which is extremely significant and highly bullish in my opinion also MACD has crossed over on monthly which again is extremely significant and positive and portends a multi-month move into making. this move is not going to last a month or two months or three months is going to last several months
Also quite significantly to 13 months exponential moving average has bullishly crossed over 20 month moving average (dotted line)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Weekly chart is more uncertain and it all depends on how we close this week but if we make a positive close then it would negate the black candle that came last week and also extremely bullish is the fact that the dotted line is just crossing over the red line which indicates that this move is just starting and not ending

 

[TrendTrader007]

Notice the extremely positive volume trends on the days that stock up on high volume which is markedly higher than on the days that does go down. it does not take a freaking genius to figure out that the stock is been accumulated by strong hands that is institutions, it is not due to retail investors buying A few thousand shares but instead deep pocketed institutions deploying hundreds of millions of dollars into this. This is serious money strong hands that are clearly accumulating Tesla

 

[GoTslaGo]

Goldman down almost 5% today. Is this keeping everything in the red today?

Yes. Imho GS is given way too much weight in the market.

 

[TrendTrader007]

This 2 hourly chart screams to me the Tesla wants to run higher very fast very soon similar to January 3 or fourth of 2017 and a breakout move to the top side is coming very very soon maybe tomorrow or day after tomorrow certainly within the next few days
Dude! I'm tired and exhausted with all this posting I'm not going to waste my time looking at the hourly and 15 minute charts suffice it to say that they all look extremely bullish to me
I may be an idiot but i am A lucky idiot i just hope that my luck does not run out anytime soon

 

[TrendTrader007]

Okay here is the clear breakout on monthly chart
Clear as daylight
Goodnight!

 

[D-egg-O]

View attachment 223485
Sorry for the delay. I've had a super busy day as most of us. You're right. Lemme share a few positives that I see on short term charts
Breakaway gap on 4/3 has held up very well SP didn't even come close to testing the $287.5 level. Instead it has nicely and tightly consolidated for the last several days with a hollow red candle today and the moving averages are pointing straight up that is an extremely bullish scenario
Long term charts look extremely bullish I could give you several reasons but suffice it to say at the technical picture looks really really good OK I will go ahead and post several charts tonight and explain my exact rationale for that

Bought one Jan 2019 600C today. Big spender over here ;-)

 

[AnneBoleyn]

I predict a few rough days / weeks ahead for Trendtrader007. Although profitable, his style appears on the verge of reckless imho. He appears to have enough money to withstand major drawdowns. That being said, he may quadruple down and buy another few million in options. Thankfully he can afford it. I hope AB has one hell of a massive war chest to play along with his Game of Thrones.

What one doesn't know about TT007 would floor you all.
I don't even have a helmet for battle, but feel prepared nonetheless

 

[dw4ngg]

View attachment 223493 This 2 hourly chart screams to me the Tesla wants to run higher very fast very soon similar to January 3 or fourth of 2017 and a breakout move to the top side is coming very very soon maybe tomorrow or day after tomorrow certainly within the next few days
Dude! I'm tired and exhausted with all this posting I'm not going to waste my time looking at the hourly and 15 minute charts suffice it to say that they all look extremely bullish to me
I may be an idiot but i am A lucky idiot i just hope that my luck does not run out anytime soon

Could be head and shoulders but the last leg down was a broader market decline so hard to say..

 

[D-egg-O]

Since I have staked close to $XXX k of my hard earned money on TSLA call options alone (not counting stock) and I stand to lose most of it if I'm wrong I'll go ahead and painstakingly explain my entire thought process about Tesla not because I feel compelled to do it but because I do make a lot of cryptic and emphatic statements that make me look like the court jester to most people out there.I really could not care less about what anybody thinks of me because at the end of the day I stand to lose or make X. Still I'll go ahead and explain all my thesis with the caveat that I could be horribly and terribly wrong and this is something I'm doing with my personal portfolio and I certainly do not want anybody following my lead this is NOT an investment advice to anybody just my personal opinion and I could be fantastically wrong and lose every single cent that I have and file for bankruptcy just so you guys understand

Godspeed in your latest options trade. If it works out, can you at least commit to buying an S or X P100D? I know you're cheap when it comes to making product purchases (from your interview with Dave), but c'mon.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

What one doesn't know about TT007 would floor you all.
I don't even have a helmet for battle, but feel prepared nonetheless

With all due respect, I doubt that.

Your comments* 1. about depressing day on the day of minor pullback, 2. saying that you don't care about money, 3. yet in another comment you say you want to preserve initial investment - all of that makes me think that you're not emotionally truly prepared for roller-coaster that stock market is, especially with leveraged position. I don't have any hope that my words will prepare you, but if you're in a position that is not good match for your risk profile, I hope you recognize symptoms earlier.

But I'm also hoping you don't get tested - good time are probably ahead of us.

And yes, I read almost every comment here, my family's net worth (other than the house) is in TSLA. And I sleep just fine when not leveraged, or when lightly leveraged.

*Reason I remembered your comments is that it reminded me of a younger version of myself

 

[neroden]

Tesla: $375 is the New $500?

Dougherty’s Charles Anderson and Jessica McHugh cut their price target on Tesla to $375 from $500.

We inherited coverage of TSLA from Andrea James ~9 months ago and have reiterated the $500PT she set in April 2016 (when the stock was $230) ever since. We note the $500PT was based on a multiple applied to prospective 2025 earnings, discounted back. Admittedly, this was longer-term target.

You know, I think I trust Andrea James's target.

So maybe I won't be buying any $600 calls for this year. Maybe I'll even sell some near-term covered calls at that strike if I get offered enough money.

 

[1kEE]

You know, I think I trust Andrea James's target.

So maybe I won't be buying any $600 calls for this year. Maybe I'll even sell some near-term covered calls at that strike if I get offered enough money.

What do those things trade at? I've never looked that far up the options chain....

Index futures are looking good and Tsla is up to 301.11 in the premarket.

Anyone hear updates on the Gromann situation? I thought they were going to vote on it by now and announce unions decision by now but I can't find any news on the subject.

 

[mutle]

Anyone hear updates on the Gromann situation? I thought they were going to vote on it by now and announce unions decision by now but I can't find any news on the subject.

Did a quick search and found Tesla-Chef gibt Jobgarantie für deutschen Autozulieferer Grohmann which was published today. It seems to have some new information:

"Aus all diesen Gründen möchte ich unmissverständlich jedermann bei Tesla Grohmann versichern, dass wir nicht auf absehbare Zeit, und ganz sicher nicht in den nächsten fünf Jahren einen Personalabbau durchführen oder betriebsbedingte Kündigungen aussprechen werden", versprach Musk. "Auch nach diesen fünf Jahren erwarten wir weiteres Wachstum bei Tesla Grohmann und keinen Personalabbau."

He said that there will be no job cuts for at least the next 5 years and the plan is to grow even further afterwards. That should hopefully calm those fears about job security.

Another thing that was interesting:

Verträge mit anderen Herstellern wie Daimler laufen aus.

This says existing contracts will run out, indicating that Tesla did not cancel them.

 

[dw4ngg]

What one doesn't know about TT007 would floor you all.
I don't even have a helmet for battle, but feel prepared nonetheless

Pls provide additional details

 

[winfield100]

Pls provide additional details

google "What's opera, doc?"

 

[TrendTrader007]

Godspeed in your latest options trade. If it works out, can you at least commit to buying an S or X P100D? I know you're cheap when it comes to making product purchases (from your interview with Dave), but c'mon.

I am a huge supporter of Tesla the company not only the stock and I'm actually committed to buying three Tesla cars over the next 12 to 18 months time including a Model S most likely
While I cannot speak for AB it is my understanding that she will be Buying a model three or a model S within the same timeframe as well