2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[myusername]

Back to $150?! Ummm... No

That would require an enormous macro selloff... Annie get yer gun...

Tesla is gearing up to launch Model 3 in July and by next year will have significantly higher sales. This'll drive analysts PTs higher.

or... this is the longest "sell the news" story ever played out... and before you say... "your a f&#$*( a#$#$(#.... I hate you"... think about it for a second...

there's somewhere between 1/2 and a whole decade baked into this stock right now... "you're an ..."... wait...

TSLA at $300 priced higher than Ford and GM... think about it... you are paying for Tesla at a minimum of half their size if not more today.

we had a false break DOWN... back at $140... and now a strong reversal... yes... it's WAY too early to determine if this is a full reversal... but if this slumps down further... it could simply retrace.

so after all these years that this company has told the tale of changing the world... now they're about to... right?... price baked in for 30x growth... and the day they start delivering cars for real... then what?

they're a car company again... you think it's going to shoot to $400... $500?... why?... this year?... next year?... why?... because they might roll a few (yes... 10s of thousands and even 100s of thousands is a few)... M3s off a line?

like I said back in Dec when I suggested TSLA would break $280 and test ATH... that when it does happen... it will turn into a valuation battle again...

and here we are... analysts questioning the sanity of everything they've ever known about what the price of a share means on national television.

there is absolutely a possibility of $150 from here even without massive macro or massive failures... and there are absolutely risks of massive failures...

which there really weren't before now... before now... it was just a story... now it's priced beyond perfection and it's becoming real... reality sucks... just ask Elon... when he tells his investors to put their money in F.

 

[myusername]

Just when I thought you are gone forever, you slither back in

i'm not going away buddy... there's $300 of fluff under this.

 

[Starno]

or... this is the longest "sell the news" story ever played out... and before you say... "your a f&#$*( a#$#$(#.... I hate you"... think about it for a second...

there's somewhere between 1/2 and a whole decade baked into this stock right now... "you're an ..."... wait...

TSLA at $300 priced higher than Ford and GM... think about it... you are paying for Tesla at a minimum of half their size if not more today.

we had a false break DOWN... back at $140... and now a strong reversal... yes... it's WAY too early to determine if this is a full reversal... but if this slumps down further... it could simply retrace.

so after all these years that this company has told the tale of changing the world... now they're about to... right?... price baked in for 30x growth... and the day they start delivering cars for real... then what?

they're a car company again... you think it's going to shoot to $400... $500?... why?... this year?... next year?... why?... because they might roll a few (yes... 10s of thousands and even 100s of thousands is a few)... M3s off a line?

like I said back in Dec when I suggested TSLA would break $280 and test ATH... that when it does happen... it will turn into a valuation battle again...

and here we are... analysts questioning the sanity of everything they've ever known about what the price of a share means on national television.

there is absolutely a possibility of $150 from here even without massive macro or massive failures... and there are absolutely risks of massive failures...

which there really weren't before now... before now... it was just a story... now it's priced beyond perfection and it's becoming real... reality sucks... just ask Elon... when he tells his investors to put their money in F.

No dude, their valuation doesn't come from the few hundreds thousands a year of M3.
It comes from the fact that in 10 years no one will go from their home to work or anywhere else, in anything else than a Tesla vehicle.

Period.

Tesla Network + Self driving cars = Boom.

And.
That the source of energy powering your computer, your car, your TV, the lights in the street, the lights in the house, will come from at least 50% Tesla.


Tesla = Toyota + GM + Ford + Volkswagen + Uber + Lyft + Renault + PSA + General Electric + BP + Exxon Mobil.

 

[neroden]

there's the $270 gap also.

You do seem to be quite sharp about short-term technicals. There don't seem to be any more unfilled gaps below that, and the "measured move" theory would put somewhere in the 270-280 range as the new trading range base.

See any bearish technical indicators which would bring it *below* that? I'm certainly no technicals expert but everything I've looked at seems to show a support level somewhere in that region.

(Full disclosure, I'm trying to figure out whether and when it might make sense to "buy the dip". I will know when the price is below the bottom of my range of fundamentals-based estimates, or above it. But until we get more news, it's currently somewhere *within* my range of fundamentals-based estimates, though on the lower side, which makes it a bit harder to decide what to do.)

 

[myusername]

No dude, their valuation doesn't come from the few hundreds thousands a year of M3.
It comes from the fact that in 10 years no one will go from their home to work or anywhere else, in anything else than a Tesla vehicle.

Period.

Tesla Network + Self driving cars = Boom.

And.
That the source of energy powering your computer, your car, your TV, the lights in the street, the lights in the house, will come from at least 50% Tesla.


Tesla = Toyota + GM + Ford + Volkswagen + Uber + Lyft + Renault + PSA + General Electric + BP + Exxon Mobil.

pretty great story isn't it... almost too great to be true... right now the formula looks like this:

Tesla = 0*Toyota + 0*GM + 0.01*Ford + 0*Uber + 0*Lyft + 0*Renault + 0*PSA + 0*GE + 0*BP + 0*Exxon Mobile = 106% of Ford

do you really not see anything wrong there?

 

[Starno]

Replace phone by car.

pretty great story isn't it... almost too great to be true... right now the formula looks like this:

Tesla = 0*Toyota + 0*GM + 0.01*Ford + 0*Uber + 0*Lyft + 0*Renault + 0*PSA + 0*GE + 0*BP + 0*Exxon Mobile = 106% of Ford

do you really not see anything wrong there?

Replace phone by car, please

 

[myusername]

You do seem to be quite sharp about short-term technicals. There don't seem to be any more unfilled gaps below that, and the "measured move" theory would put somewhere in the 270-280 range as the new trading range base.

See any bearish technical indicators which would bring it *below* that? I'm certainly no technicals expert but everything I've looked at seems to show a support level somewhere in that region.

(Full disclosure, I'm trying to figure out whether and when it might make sense to "buy the dip". I will know when the price is below the bottom of my range of fundamentals-based estimates, or above it. But until we get more news, it's currently somewhere *within* my range of fundamentals-based estimates, though on the lower side, which makes it a bit harder to decide what to do.)

let it fill the gaps... if it doesn't you'll be happy... if it does... you'll be happy you didn't buy too small of a dip... of course... you'll have to re-evaluate at that point if you *should* continue the "buy the dip" approach... TSLA has been extraordinarily generous to its traders thus far... and that shouldn't be taken for granted.

 

[AnneBoleyn]

Discouraging day.... but I can only hope tomorrow takes a turn like Monday, and we close our holiday weekend with positive holdings... maybe the Easter Bunny will buy Teslas for everybody, and Monday the stock will go sky high

 

[neroden]

let it fill the gaps... if it doesn't you'll be happy... if it does... you'll be happy you didn't buy too small of a dip... of course... you'll have to re-evaluate at that point if you *should* continue the "buy the dip" approach... TSLA has been extraordinarily generous to its traders thus far... and that shouldn't be taken for granted.

Well, I'm not a trader, I'm an investor. It would be different if I were a trader.

It's annoying when my valuation model has a wide range, though. I've generally tried to buy when the stock is below the minimum, but that can miss out. If I'm near the bottom of the valuation range, then I should often go for it, since my long-term downside potential is low -- but I might as well try to time the buy based on technicals, 'cause why not.

 

[geneclean55]

or... this is the longest "sell the news" story ever played out... and before you say... "your a f&#$*( a#$#$(#.... I hate you"... think about it for a second...

there's somewhere between 1/2 and a whole decade baked into this stock right now... "you're an ..."... wait...

TSLA at $300 priced higher than Ford and GM... think about it... you are paying for Tesla at a minimum of half their size if not more today.

we had a false break DOWN... back at $140... and now a strong reversal... yes... it's WAY too early to determine if this is a full reversal... but if this slumps down further... it could simply retrace.

so after all these years that this company has told the tale of changing the world... now they're about to... right?... price baked in for 30x growth... and the day they start delivering cars for real... then what?

they're a car company again... you think it's going to shoot to $400... $500?... why?... this year?... next year?... why?... because they might roll a few (yes... 10s of thousands and even 100s of thousands is a few)... M3s off a line?

like I said back in Dec when I suggested TSLA would break $280 and test ATH... that when it does happen... it will turn into a valuation battle again...

and here we are... analysts questioning the sanity of everything they've ever known about what the price of a share means on national television.

there is absolutely a possibility of $150 from here even without massive macro or massive failures... and there are absolutely risks of massive failures...

which there really weren't before now... before now... it was just a story... now it's priced beyond perfection and it's becoming real... reality sucks... just ask Elon... when he tells his investors to put their money in F.

Dude, could you do everyone a favor and cut down on the number of periods. I know you are more of a value investor/established market titan kind of guy but I believe the telegram is no longer where its at.

 

[DragonWatch]

Third times the charm Neroden I agree with your thinking. Each time Tesla hits a new high, there is a pull back; and each time the pull back also finds a new high.

I wrote this morning about long term fundamentals and just happen to mention Ford; Ford as it was affectionately referred to back in the sixties.

While technicals play a very big role, they fail to tell the entire story. It is the bigger story most analysts fail to recognize and factor into the scheme of things.

I used to believe gold was the standard, but as Warren and proof of the pudding have shown us; it plays little in today's scheme of things. In fact I tightened up my shoulder muscles and braced myself for the crash that began in '05, but gold other than going through the roof never panned (get it) out. It did not take the place of the dollar. Nor did excessive inflation as the gold gurus touted.

We are in uncharted waters here. Anyone yelling and screaming that the sky is falling in the market, referring to Tesla, is probably not getting enough oxygen at their altitude.

There is a mega unknown for all of us (especially bulls), no not my initials and military rank, Tesla is very disruptive in the market place.

Tactically speaking, to decide to attack, ensure you out number the opposition three to one. Tesla has automobiles, and solar driving the train. That's two to one. People make up the third leg. Right now they are pissed, and I do mean pissed. They Are putting into ludicrous mode all things electric

Additionally, twice now fossil fuels have crushed solar power. This time, the people will win and Tesla is ensuring they are out in front of this train.

Now having said all that three stuff, I am or was a few years back 5'-5 1/2" tall. In the army I made it clear that anyone that attacked me, my kill me, but they would never enjoy sex again as a human. What's in your humor today?

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 222461 View attachment 222462 View attachment 222461

Discouraging day.... but I can only hope tomorrow takes a turn like Monday, and we close our holiday weekend with positive holdings... maybe the Easter Bunny will buy Teslas for everybody, and Monday the stock will go sky high

Okay just to put things in perspective here is our current chart compared to April 2013 chart
Notice the similarities even as to the % of declines and even both SCTRs are 99.1 !!!
these two charts are markedly similar
you know what is coming next

 

[TrendTrader007]

Discouraging day.... but I can only hope tomorrow takes a turn like Monday, and we close our holiday weekend with positive holdings... maybe the Easter Bunny will buy Teslas for everybody, and Monday the stock will go sky high

And this is what happened AFTER 4/9/2013

 

[neroden]

Now having said all that three stuff, I am or was a few years back 5'-5 1/2" tall.

What a coincidence. You're *exactly* my height.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Discouraging day.... but I can only hope tomorrow takes a turn like Monday, and we close our holiday weekend with positive holdings... maybe the Easter Bunny will buy Teslas for everybody, and Monday the stock will go sky high

so even though my portfolio is down today, no I'm not at all discouraged, far from it
the only way to make big money in the market is to lose big money (on paper, at least). i might be wrong but the dip buyers will keep on waiting while this stock revs higher
In fact a day like today is actually great it simply emboldens the short sellers and they think that this stock is going to sink then guess what the stock market has a way of reversing things in a heartbeat I really don't care what happens today tomorrow or the day after tomorrow in a month from now this stock is going to be markedly higher and short-sellers will be a ruing dearly selling this stockl short
Just like Longs get thrilled if the stock goes up 3% in a day similarly short-sellers get excited every time the stock drops and I'm pretty sure that they increased their short positions only to get their just desserts which is surely coming

 

[neroden]

View attachment 222466
And this is what happened AFTER 4/9/2013

So that was a slow move upward in the Bollinger Band until earnings, and then a good earnings surprise causes a massive gap up and further runup.

Due to the accounting hassle of the SolarCity merger, I strongly expect earnings to be released later in May this time, and we don't know whether they'll be viewed as a positive surprise or not. Just as a warning.

When Model 3 actually ships, that's when I'm expecting the markets to go crazy.

 

[TrendTrader007]

So that was a slow move upward in the Bollinger Band until earnings, and then a good earnings surprise causes a massive gap up and further runup.

Due to the accounting hassle of the SolarCity merger, I strongly expect earnings to be released later in May this time, and we don't know whether they'll be viewed as a positive surprise or not. Just as a warning.

When Model 3 actually ships, that's when I'm expecting the markets to go crazy.

You may be absolutely right I just cannot discount the striking similarities between current timeframe and April 2013 in the absence of any other compelling data I will base my thinking on aforementioned similarities until something changes my point of view

 

[Starno]

So if the ER is May 10th (wednesday 2nd week of the month).

That means it will be exactly in 4 weeks.

Let's be patient 4 weeks.

 

[TrendTrader007]

OK here is the trick to making big money in a bull market do not become bearish in a bull market and do not lose your position similarly do not become bullish in a bear market and stay out of the market
Now whether this is a bull market or a bear market I will leave it up to you guys to decide
$TSLA don't be bearish in a bull market and do not become bullish in a bear market
this is a simple trick to make big money in any market

 

[Skryll]

OK here is the trick to making big money in a bull market do not become bearish in a bull market and do not lose your position similarly do not become bullish in a bear market and stay out of the market
Now whether this is a bull market or a bear market I will leave it up to you guys to decide
$TSLA don't be bearish in a bull market and do not become bullish in a bear market
this is a simple trick to make big money in any market

I have another good one for you. You will thank me because you will get rich if you do this:

Always buy low and then sell high.

Works every single time.