AnneBoleyn
Anne Boleyn
I have read War and Peace thank you. I have read most of Tolstoy's work. I advise you to read Player Piano
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Gonna set a limit order at 306.95, as I have a feeling that would be the low today, hopefully it gets executed.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Whatever Fidelity put out today as available for shorting is down to 0 shares available at 9:32am:
Can't make this *sugar* up boy I tell ya.
If $TSLA posts blow-out earnings (i.e. posts a profit and gives strong M3 guidance and/or TE guidance) then this is going to be a bloodbath. otherwise we will likely test ~$270 and fill some gaps. We're setting up for some heavy swings come earnings.
So the way a tsunami of pain goes is we run up to about $400 before ER, and then lets assume there is enough positive stuff in the ER to spook enough shorts, then it goes to $600 on their pain. Of course this is in no way a prediction but that is tamer than what happened in 2013.
Oh ye of little faith ... $600 is less then +100%, a mere doubling.
Short squeeze means trippling and more.
Checking in to say wow, this is cool. All those years of holding leaps was being ready for all this...
And yeah if we get a dryships/vw squeeze. I wouldn't count on that though. There is too much liquidity right now. But I imagine things are tightening up...
I don't feel like we have even seen the shorts' capitulation day. There will be a out-of-nowhere +6% day after an ATH is set.
And I advise all of you to read _The Gods Themselves_.
No, really, it's relevant. The moral is *very* relevant to *how* Musk is trying to stop global warming.
Anyway, *back on topic*, what a morning. Whew.
I agree.
My thesis on the short interest:
A good portion of it is hedging by large firms or market makers - they are not going to cover because of "margin calls" (they have more money than they know what to do with) but there are numerous other reasons they may.
A portion is the @myusername (s) of the world. In their mind, TSLA should be compared to F to arrive at a valuation and therefore feel they should short even more if the price continues to go up. These are the Spiegels and Wonky Wheels of the world. These are the ones in danger of a "margin call" (or forced cover) if the price continues to rise.
Having said that, I believe if we actually start seeing any unwinding of the short positions in real volume it will be 20%+ unexpected rise on 3 or 4 times normal volume.
Mike
Have you been to Scotia, Troy or Schenectady? Player Piano was mostly about GE, a long time ago. Try Pall Mall Red; that is the most dignified... according to Kilgore Trout anyway.
Ah, maybe shorting TSLA is quicker.
AnneBoleyn
Anne Boleyn
pleased with TSLA this AM! Hoping it continues to flourish!
Jump-Back:
- On 14 September, as I had written at the time, I decided that enough was too much and finally bought into Solar City. This was either the 3rd- or 2nd-largest investment I ever have made.
- If the upcoming shareholder vote succeeded, this would translate into a TSLA position at a price of $155.
- Which is, as all of you know, exactly what happened.
- Guess what 2X $155 is.......
Jump-Back:
- On 14 September, as I had written at the time, I decided that enough was too much and finally bought into Solar City. This was either the 3rd- or 2nd-largest investment I ever have made.
- If the upcoming shareholder vote succeeded, this would translate into a TSLA position at a price of $155.
- Which is, as all of you know, exactly what happened.
- Guess what 2X $155 is.......
Congrats. Some of my best performance (recently anyway) has come from the SCTY arbitrage play.
Having said that, I was a little nervous for awhile...
Mike
What on Earth are they hedging against? Options positions, you think? Can we figure out if it's the right order of magnitude? I don't know the standard options market maker hedging strategies; I do know that they melt down completely in the face of very strong, very sudden moves and can cause major losses for the market makers.
Yeah, I did something similar with the SCTY merger (and mentioned it at the time), though bad day-to-day timing means my average purchase price is a little bit higher (still under $160).Jump-Back:
- On 14 September, as I had written at the time, I decided that enough was too much and finally bought into Solar City. This was either the 3rd- or 2nd-largest investment I ever have made.
- If the upcoming shareholder vote succeeded, this would translate into a TSLA position at a price of $155.
- Which is, as all of you know, exactly what happened.
- Guess what 2X $155 is.......
Jump-Back:
- On 14 September, as I had written at the time, I decided that enough was too much and finally bought into Solar City. This was either the 3rd- or 2nd-largest investment I ever have made.
- If the upcoming shareholder vote succeeded, this would translate into a TSLA position at a price of $155.
- Which is, as all of you know, exactly what happened.
- Guess what 2X $155 is.......
Congrats- same here; pre-merger moved ALL TSLA to standing SCTY hold at 25% arbitrage, for 'free' 25% add to position- with no risk.
all under $160 TSLA - nice work fellas
Jump-Back:
- On 14 September, as I had written at the time, I decided that enough was too much and finally bought into Solar City. This was either the 3rd- or 2nd-largest investment I ever have made.
- If the upcoming shareholder vote succeeded, this would translate into a TSLA position at a price of $155.
- Which is, as all of you know, exactly what happened.
- Guess what 2X $155 is.......
To you both, congratulations! I have not been so prescient, although I have zero complaints.
OTOH, I am old enough to think my investment record is only as good as my most recent trades. Ancient history reminds me that in 1973 I took advice from a stockbroker. I did not think so at the time, but I constantly remember that I had a very cheap, fairly early lesson. I did a favor for a nephew five years ago which also taught me that such favors should be done just as lending money to relatives: don't expect to get your money back.
Now, thinking about my present TSLA position mostly dating to March 2014, I'm happy!
Yeah, I'm on shaky ground trying to back that one up. I just can't wrap my head around the possibility that any large percentage of that short interest is held by retail investors, so I "assume" that's where it is.
I'm open to suggestions...
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