JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I've been hearing about the bears last breath almost as long as I've heard about Tesla going bankrupt...
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I've been hearing about the bears last breath almost as long as I've heard about Tesla going bankrupt...
jhm
Well-Known Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Ah, right, you're special...
ValueAnalyst
Closed
ValueAnalyst
Closed
It's very easy to throw mud at people, especially when one's vision is clouded by ignorance.
There are 13,000+ contributors at SeekingAlpha and a team of editors that work hard to review thousands of articles every day.
You're judging a globally followed platform by a few articles you've skimmed from handful of paid FUDsters.
Seems smart
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's very easy to throw mud at people, especially when one's vision is clouded by ignorance.
There are 13,000+ contributors at SeekingAlpha and a team of editors that work hard to review thousands of articles every day.
You're judging a globally followed platform by a few articles you've skimmed from handful of paid FUDsters.
Seems smart
Yet there have been a noticeable few published quality bullish articles about TSLA. SA may be balanced as a whole but my concentration on TSLA has not provided any evidence of such regarding that stock.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla is an important company that is changing the world while threatening several multi-trillion dollar industries simultaneously. It should be expected that some special interests would want this company to fail, and some say a handful of online bloggers are paid to disparage Tesla. Big deal. Is it illegal? Probably not. Immoral? Sure, but that's life.
If you're unhappy about the quality of articles on the company, you are free to open a contributor account and change that. That's how I started... I read consequent articles that seemed very misguided, I wanted to change that, and I think I made a difference for many retail investors.
It's frustrating to see that some here think they are entitled to throw mud on others' work by copy pasting some meme while boasting about their $140k Model X's. IMHO, not you, but having interacted with thousands of people on both sides of TSLA, I think some people on the bull side aren't that different from the very people we all criticize.
Please note that calculating debt/equity this way is wrong. Counting the convertibles as debt understates the equity and overstates the debt.
With the possible exception of the SCTY 2018s and 2019s -- and I'm not at all sure about either of those -- the convertible bonds are equity, since they're in the money. It's pretty much guaranteed that they'll convert. (The stock will almost certainly be above the conversion prices when the bonds mature.)
So the debt/equity ratio for Tesla right now is actually much lower than that. By my calculations Tesla can probably afford to double its outstanding (non-convertible) debt before the debt/equity ratio reaches 1.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
We will know that we've won, that we've completely become mainstream as TSLA investors, when this forum becomes so popular that it is unusable due to trolls.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Life is what you make it, to some degree. I never suggested SA was doing anything illegal, I simply pointed out its obvious anti Tesla bias.
Good choice. I chose to comment extensively on hundreds of articles, (apparently long before you discovered Tesla), and counter the factual inaccuracies as best I could.
Up to the point where the bears want a world changing company to fail. The most rabid TSLA bear simply wants the company to succeed.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm not sure how to make this any more clear: SeekingAlpha is a platform. There are 13,000+ contributors who submit articles, the vast majority of whom are honest hardworking people. Editors are overwhelmed journalists who are not necessarily financially well versed, so they make sure an article reads well and doesn't include too many over the top ultra-long-term assumptions, then they approve it for publication. There's a team of "moderators" who are probably underpaid and try to keep up with tens of thousands of comments to keep things somewhat in line. Fortunately most readers already know who's reasonable and who's trying to create trouble (just like here), so the whole thing kinda works.
99% of people don't know zilch about finance; so yes, the vast majority of bullish articles don't make any sense. There may be a subset of bears/shorts that are motivated in some way for some reason to talk down the stock, so they publish often with excruciating detail, which to an untrained eye, seem well researched, but is completely irrelevant to the valuation of Tesla: monthly Model S deliveries in Hong Kong, or 3Q17 YoY growth when every other quarter around it show 100% growth, "CPO numbers slashed in half!" when in fact they went down by ~50 cars etc... I don't even know why Elon bothers to respond to these articles...
As I did before with SCTY transaction's probability of completion, impossibility of Tesla competition, much higher than expected Model 3 ASP, and the latest non-dilutive debt capital raise almost to the exact amount, I'm stating against popular belief, that if Tesla can deliver 5,000/wk with 25% gross margin in 1Q18, bears are done.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I'm not sure I understand your disagreement, my post was solely focused on Oct '17 timeframe.
I also agree with you that 25% margin on M3 will likely kill the last of any bear thesis if it happens in Q2'18 as Tesla projected, or better yet in Q1'18. I think Tesla also needs to demonstrate continued ramp beyond 5K/wk. For Q1'18, 5k/wk is OK. But if there are no signs of them increasing past that by Q2'18, there will be some questions.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Sorry I didn't tie my thought to yours.
I think given that:
1. The stock is already inexpensive vs fundamentals at $360
2. Bears will likely be done by 1Q18 if Tesla delivers on its goal (I think he said few weeks after reaching 5k/wk rate, which is end-17, so 1Q18 should be ~22% model 3 margin)
3. Debt capital raise at 5-6% refutes pretty much all bear arguments
4. Upcoming semi event which I don't think is yet priced in
I think a steady significant rise in SP can be expected by 2Q18, so pushing it back down to $300 or lower before bringing it back up would be very difficult to pull off as $300 would attract another big buyer like tencent taking 5%.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yes, market will. Too far out to be material to current SP until Tesla takes some material steps to get to 10k/wk.
But I'm a very long-term investor so it matters to me.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think Elon said they can hit 25% margin on M3 about 3-4 months after 5k/wk. From what I heard, the main factor is that it take some more time after reaching 5k/wk to get supply chain moving smoothly to allow them to achieve high efficiency.
I don't think PPS will go back down to $300 either. I think the PPS will run from here into Sep on the expectation of semi and potentially good news on GGF. Then if the end of Sep Q3 delivery # doesn't have any positive surprises, the bears will wait for the cash burn in the Q3ER and attack in mid Oct. We may get a 10% pull back. If M3 configuration flood gate opens by then, maybe the bears don't even get that chance.
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